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UEFA Conference League Thu, 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente

Fair price as of 09:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:35 UTC
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The sharp market makes Twente the most likely outcome at 80% — fair odds of 1.25. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Lincoln Red Imps FC: LLLDD; Twente: LWDWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Twente anyway? The best price we see is 1.23 at Betsson, -1.4% against the fair odds of 1.25. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

2 Away win 77%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	7%	13%	80%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	7%	15%	77%
Our model	16%	20%	64%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 4 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.29

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 10.51 / 5.55 / 1.26

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 13.90 / 7.00 / 1.23

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 20 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	14.17	7.81	1.25
Pinnacle sharp	10.82	6.34	1.22
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	12.50	6.60	1.27
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	12.50	6.60	1.27
1xBet	13.90 ★	6.90	1.22
888sport	12.00	6.00	1.22
BetOnline.ag	13.00	7.00 ★	1.20
Betsson	10.50	5.70	1.23 ★
Nordic Bet	10.50	5.70	1.23 ★

Show all 20 bookmakers

BetVictor	12.00	6.00	1.18
Betano (UK)	12.00	6.00	1.18
Betclic (FR)	9.75	5.90	1.18
Betfred (UK)	13.00	6.50	1.22
Betway	10.00	6.50	1.22
LeoVegas	11.00	6.50	1.21
Marathonbet	12.50	6.20	1.20
Paddy Power	10.00	6.00	1.20
Sky Bet	8.00	5.25	1.20
Unibet (FR)	9.50	5.50	1.18
Unibet (UK)	12.00	6.50	1.22
William Hill	12.00	6.00	1.22

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 10 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.48 · Bet365	33% fair 3.04 best 2.60 · Bet365
3.25	2.01 fair best 1.94 · 1xBet	1.99 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet
3.5	44% fair 2.27 best 2.20 · Bet365	56% fair 1.79 best 1.74 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	87% fair 1.16 best 1.14 · Bet365	13% fair 7.45 best 6.00 · BetVictor
2.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.48 · Bet365	33% fair 3.04 best 2.60 · Bet365
2.75	1.60 fair best 1.53 · BetVictor	2.68 fair best 2.32 · 1xBet
3	1.75 fair best 1.66 · BetVictor	2.33 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet
3.25	2.01 fair best 1.94 · 1xBet	1.99 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet
3.5	44% fair 2.27 best 2.20 · Bet365	56% fair 1.79 best 1.74 · 1xBet
3.75	2.65 fair best 2.33 · BetVictor	1.61 fair best 1.52 · BetVictor
4.5	24% fair 4.23 best 3.75 · Bet365	76% fair 1.31 best 1.26 · 1xBet
5.5	11% fair 9.31 best 7.50 · BetVictor	89% fair 1.12 best 1.10 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
20% fair 5.04 best 4.50 · 1xBet	87% fair 1.15 best 1.12 · 1xBet	93% fair 1.08 best 1.05 · William Hill

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Lincoln Red Imps FC	Twente
+1.25	2.99 fair best 2.75 · Bet365	1.50 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
+1.5	41% fair 2.44 best 2.35 · Bet365	59% fair 1.69 best 1.67 · 1xBet
+1.75	2.15 fair best 2.08 · Bet365	1.87 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet
+2	1.86 fair best 1.82 · Bet365	2.16 fair best 1.98 · Bet365
+2.25	1.67 fair best 1.65 · Bet365	2.50 fair best 2.20 · Bet365

All lines (11)

Line	Lincoln Red Imps FC	Twente
+0.5	23% fair 4.35 best 4.40 · Bet365	77% fair 1.30 best 1.20 · Bet365
+0.75	4.68 fair best 4.00 · Bet365	1.27 fair best 1.29 · BetVictor
+1	4.06 fair best 3.55 · Bet365	1.33 fair best 1.27 · Bet365
+1.25	2.99 fair best 2.75 · Bet365	1.50 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
+1.5	41% fair 2.44 best 2.35 · Bet365	59% fair 1.69 best 1.67 · 1xBet
+1.75	2.15 fair best 2.08 · Bet365	1.87 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet
+2	1.86 fair best 1.82 · Bet365	2.16 fair best 1.98 · Bet365
+2.25	1.67 fair best 1.65 · Bet365	2.50 fair best 2.20 · Bet365
+2.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.52 · Bet365	35% fair 2.85 best 2.47 · BetVictor
+2.75	1.40 fair best 1.40 · Bet365	3.47 fair best 2.92 · BetVictor
+3	1.29 fair best 1.27 · Bet365	4.50 fair best 3.55 · Bet365

Goals by team

Lincoln Red Imps FC goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	50% fair 2.00 best 2.00 · Bet365	50% fair 2.00 best 1.83 · Marathonbet

Twente goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	50% fair 2.00 best 1.87 · 1xBet	50% fair 2.00 best 1.88 · 1xBet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78% fair 1.28 best 1.28 · 1xBet	22% fair 4.55 best 3.60 · BetVictor
2.5	50% fair 2.00 best 1.87 · 1xBet	50% fair 2.00 best 1.88 · 1xBet
3.5	26% fair 3.88 best 3.25 · Bet365	74% fair 1.35 best 1.33 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
9% fair 11.14 best 11.00 · Bet365	30% fair 3.35 best 2.90 · William Hill	61% fair 1.64 best 1.59 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.86 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet	2.16 fair best 1.93 · BetVictor
1.5	44% fair 2.29 best 2.12 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.77 best 1.73 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.33 fair best 1.32 · 1xBet	4.07 fair best 3.05 · BetVictor
1	1.46 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet	3.16 fair best 2.54 · BetVictor
1.25	1.86 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet	2.16 fair best 1.93 · BetVictor
1.5	44% fair 2.29 best 2.12 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.77 best 1.73 · William Hill
1.75	2.85 fair best 2.52 · 1xBet	1.54 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

0–211.9%fair 8.38
0–311.0%fair 9.13
0–18.7%fair 11.44
1–28.4%fair 11.89
1–37.7%fair 12.95
0–47.5%fair 13.25

Total goals

03%
111%
219%
322%
4+45%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Lincoln Red Imps FC at home, Twente away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Lincoln Red Imps FC	Twente
Goals scored per game	0.90 (1.29)	1.70 (1.90)
Goals conceded per game	1.60 (1.00)	1.00 (1.90)
Over 2.5 goals	50% (43%)	50% (80%)
Both teams scored	60% (71%)	60% (90%)
Clean sheets	10% (14%)	30% (0%)
Failed to score	40% (29%)	10% (10%)
xG for / against per game	0.51 / 2.51	2.08 / 0.80
Corners for / against per game	3.44 / 7.78	7.00 / 3.20
Cards per game	2.67	1.50

Over 2.5 goals: Lincoln Red Imps FC in 50% and Twente in 50% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 67% for this match.

From 10 matches for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 10 for Twente. xG, corners and cards: 9 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Lincoln Red Imps FC scored 0.4 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Twente scored 1.6 and conceded 1 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Lincoln Red Imps FC has lost its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Lincoln Red Imps FC here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Lincoln Red Imps FC

L L L D D

avg 0.4 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Twente

L W D W W

avg 1.6 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Fri, 16 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 2 · Away win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint bc1fc1ee2f1824a2

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit