Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–2 Daejeon Citizen
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
When the micro-edge on Daejeon Citizen was recorded live, the sharp market made Daejeon Citizen the most likely outcome at 49% (fair odds 2.03). On Daejeon Citizen, Coolbet offered 2.05 against a fair price of 2.03, a +1.2% gap: too small to call value (Micro-edge). Recent form — Gimcheon Sangmu FC: DLWDD; Daejeon Citizen: WDWDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 7' Kim In-gyun · yellow card · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 51' 0–1 Diogo Oliveira · goal · assist Kim Bong-Soo · Daejeon Citizen
- 73' 1–1 Jung Jae-min · goal · assist Min Kyeong-hyeon · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 80' Kim Moon-Hwan · yellow card · Daejeon Citizen
- 90+1' Yoon Jae-Seok · yellow card · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 90+5' 1–2 Gustav Ludwigson · goal · Daejeon Citizen
Match stats
| Match stats | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Daejeon Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 49 | 51 |
| Shots | 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 5 |
| Corners | 6 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC win 23% did not happen
- Draw 25% did not happen
- Daejeon Citizen win 52% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 57% happened
- Micro-edge flagged before kick-off (under 1.5%, monitor only): 2 · Daejeon Citizen @ 2.05 (Coolbet) Won
CLV +6.3% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4-4-2
- 51 Ahn Joon-Soo GK
- 33 Park Jin-Seong DF
- 2 Min Kyeong-hyeon DF
- 56 Lee Kang-Hyun DF
- 45 Byeon Jun-Soo DF
- 55 Park Tae-Jun MF
- 5 Kim Min-Kyu MF
- 48 Hong Yun-Sang MF
- 49 M. Kang MF
- 47 Lee Sang-Heon FW
- 21 Kim In-Gyun FW
Bench: Chung Ma-Ho, Jeong Jae-Min, Kang Ju-Hyeok, Kim Jin-Ho, Lee Sang-Hyeok, Park Min-Seo, Park Man-Ho, Roh Kyung-Ho, Yoon Jae-Seok
Coach: Seung-jin Joo
Regular starters not in the XI
- Park Man-Ho — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Daejeon Citizen 4-4-2
- 1 Lee Chang-Geun GK
- 16 Lee Myung-Jae DF
- 33 Kim Moon-Hwan DF
- 6 Kang Yun-Sung DF
- 98 A. Krivotsyuk DF
- 30 Kim Bong-Soo MF
- 26 Lee Jung-Taek MF
- 19 Seo Jin-Su MF
- 10 Joo Min-Kyu MF
- 11 Um Won-Sang FW
- 14 Kim Jun-Bum FW
Bench: Jeong Jae-Hee, Kim Jin-Ya, Kim Min-Duk, Kim Min-Soo, Lee Soon-Min, Lee Hyun-Sik, G. Ludwigson, Park Byung-chan, Diogo de Oliveira
Coach: Hwang Sun-Hong
Regular starters not in the XI
- Ha Chang-Rae — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- Lee Soon-Min — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 24 / 25 / 50% when the line-ups came out, 23 / 25 / 52% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off Micro-edge
Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Daejeon Citizen (2) was priced at 2.05 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.03 — a +1.2% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.
The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.
A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.
Two most likely results
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 27% | 27% | 46% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 33% | 26% | 40% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Value lifecycle Settled
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Match context
Gimcheon Sangmu FC averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Daejeon Citizen averaged 1.6 and 1.0 over 5.
Since opening around 2.11, the sharp market price on Daejeon Citizen has shortened to 1.93 — the market has moved towards this outcome.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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