South Korea

K League 1 predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every K League 1 fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 16:34 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Sat · 05:00 UTC	Jeonbuk MotorsDaejeon Citizen	36% 2.58 fair 2.75	28% 3.60 fair 3.61	36% 2.70 fair 2.78	Value expired
Sat · 07:30 UTC	Gwangju FCGimcheon Sangmu FC	28% 3.30 fair 3.59	26% 3.60 fair 3.79	46% 2.10 fair 2.19	No value
Sun · 05:00 UTC	Ulsan Hyundai FCGangwon FC	43% 2.30 fair 2.34	28% 3.50 fair 3.62	30% 3.10 fair 3.38	No value
Sun · 05:00 UTC	Pohang SteelersJeju United FC	36% 2.66 fair 2.82	30% 3.20 fair 3.39	35% 2.80 fair 2.86	No value
Sun · 07:30 UTC	FC SeoulIncheon United	53% 1.83 fair 1.89	25% 3.65 fair 4.06	22% 4.30 fair 4.45	No value
Sun · 07:30 UTC	FC AnyangBucheon FC 1995	51% 2.02 fair 1.95	26% 3.62 fair 3.87	23% 4.00 fair 4.39	Not re-checked

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
24 Oct	Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Daejeon Citizen	1–2	52%
24 Oct	Ulsan Hyundai FC – Pohang Steelers	2–2	24%
24 Oct	FC Seoul – Gangwon FC	1–1	26%
24 Oct	Incheon United – Jeju United FC	3–1	42%
24 Oct	FC Anyang – Jeonbuk Motors	1–1	28%
24 Oct	Bucheon FC 1995 – Gwangju FC	0–3	32%
18 Oct	Pohang Steelers – FC Anyang	0–0	29%
18 Oct	Gangwon FC – Incheon United	1–1	34%
18 Oct	FC Seoul – Gimcheon Sangmu FC	2–2	18%
18 Oct	Jeonbuk Motors – Jeju United FC	3–2	46%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on K League 1

Across the matches we priced in K League 1, the market's average 1X2 margin is 10.01%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.04%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
K-League: Championship Group
1	FC Seoul	33	20	7	6	61	29	+32	67
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	33	15	6	12	52	47	+5	51
3	Daejeon Citizen	33	13	10	10	53	41	+12	49
4	Jeonbuk Motors	33	12	12	9	43	33	+10	48
5	Gangwon FC	33	11	15	7	40	30	+10	48
6	Incheon United	33	12	10	11	43	35	+8	46
K-League: Regular season
1	FC Seoul	33	20	7	6	61	29	+32	67
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	33	15	6	12	52	47	+5	51
3	Daejeon Citizen	33	13	10	10	53	41	+12	49
4	Jeonbuk Motors	33	12	12	9	43	33	+10	48
5	Gangwon FC	33	11	15	7	40	30	+10	48
6	Incheon United	33	12	10	11	43	35	+8	46
7	Jeju United FC	33	12	10	11	39	37	+2	46
8	FC Anyang	33	10	13	10	40	48	-8	43
9	Pohang Steelers	33	11	9	13	30	39	-9	42
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	33	5	19	9	33	41	-8	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	33	7	11	15	32	47	-15	32
12	Gwangju FC	33	3	12	18	30	69	-39	21
K-League: Relegation Group
7	Jeju United FC	33	12	10	11	39	37	+2	46
8	FC Anyang	33	10	13	10	40	48	-8	43
9	Pohang Steelers	33	11	9	13	30	39	-9	42
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	33	5	19	9	33	41	-8	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	33	7	11	15	32	47	-15	32
12	Gwangju FC	33	3	12	18	30	69	-39	21

Team stats this season

198 matches this season: 2.51 goals per game, 47% over 2.5, 55% both teams scored. xG 2.59 per match (from 10 matches); 8.5 corners and 3.7 cards per match (from 105 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	Corners	Cards
Ulsan Hyundai FC	33	1.58	1.42	64%	70%	18%	8.6	1.8
FC Seoul	33	1.85	0.88	58%	55%	39%	8.5	1.9
Daejeon Citizen	33	1.61	1.24	55%	58%	24%	9.7	1.5
Gwangju FC	33	0.91	2.09	55%	49%	15%	7.0	2.1
Incheon United	33	1.30	1.06	49%	58%	27%	8.1	1.3
FC Anyang	33	1.21	1.45	46%	70%	15%	8.5	1.9
Jeju United FC	33	1.18	1.12	46%	58%	33%	8.8	2.0
Bucheon FC 1995	33	0.97	1.42	46%	42%	27%	8.4	1.9
Jeonbuk Motors	33	1.30	1.00	39%	55%	39%	7.7	2.1
Gangwon FC	33	1.21	0.91	36%	46%	42%	8.7	2.3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC	33	1.00	1.24	36%	61%	24%	9.1	1.9
Pohang Steelers	33	0.91	1.18	36%	36%	33%	8.8	1.7

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	FC Seoul	2	55.1%	0%
2	Jeju United FC	4.1	13.3%	0.4%
3	Bucheon FC 1995	5.1	7.2%	2%
4	Incheon United	5.3	6.9%	3.3%
5	Daejeon Citizen	5.4	6%	2.6%
6	Gangwon FC	5.5	5.3%	3.1%
7	Jeonbuk Motors	6.4	2.5%	5.6%
8	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	6.6	2.2%	6.4%
9	Ulsan Hyundai FC	7.9	0.8%	15.8%
10	FC Anyang	8.4	0.6%	22.7%
11	Pohang Steelers	9.6	0.2%	43.2%
12	Gwangju FC	11.7	0%	94.8%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best K League 1 predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for K League 1 is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every K League 1 fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer K League 1 betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each K League 1 match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit