Ekstraklasa Sat, 24 Oct 2026 · 10:15 UTC

Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow

Fair price as of 16:44 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 09:50 UTC
Check my slip

The sharp market makes Cracovia Krakow the most likely outcome at 36% — fair odds of 2.77. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Piast Gliwice: DWLWW; Cracovia Krakow: DWLLL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +9.4% @ 2.65 · 18 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 36 minutes ago

We flagged +9.4% on 2 on 18 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Cracovia Krakow anyway? The best price we see is 2.65 at Casumo, -4.4% against the fair odds of 2.77. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 75%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	35%	29%	36%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	33%	25%	41%
Our model	48%	26%	26%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 36 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.34

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.81 / 3.64 / 2.30

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.67 / 3.60 / 2.65

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 32 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.84	3.48	2.77
Pinnacle sharp	2.70	3.28	2.64
1xBet	2.67 ★	3.26	2.47
Casumo	2.55	3.40	2.65 ★
Coolbet	2.60	3.60 ★	2.60
Grosvenor	2.55	3.40	2.65 ★
Marathonbet	2.67 ★	3.26	2.47
Unibet (NL)	2.55	3.40	2.65 ★
Unibet (SE)	2.55	3.40	2.65 ★

Show all 32 bookmakers

888sport	2.50	3.40	2.50
BetOnline.ag	2.64	3.20	2.58
BetVictor	2.55	3.40	2.45
Betano (UK)	2.55	3.40	2.45
Betclic (FR)	2.40	3.17	2.50
Betfair Sportsbook	2.55	3.50	2.50
Betfred (UK)	2.50	3.30	2.40
Betsson	2.55	3.25	2.55
BoyleSports	2.40	3.20	2.38
Codere (IT)	2.49	3.20	2.50
Coral	2.45	3.30	2.45
Ladbrokes	2.45	3.30	2.45
LeoVegas (SE)	2.38	3.20	2.50
LiveScore Bet	2.38	3.20	2.50
Nordic Bet	2.55	3.25	2.55
PMU (FR)	2.38	3.20	2.50
Paddy Power	2.50	3.40	2.50
Sky Bet	2.40	3.10	2.38
Tipico	2.45	3.20	2.60
Unibet (FR)	2.30	3.10	2.45
Unibet (UK)	2.55	3.30	2.60
Virgin Bet	2.38	3.20	2.50
Winamax (DE)	2.45	3.30	2.45
Winamax (FR)	2.40	3.25	2.40

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 4 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	56% fair 1.77 best 1.75 · Betano	44% fair 2.29 best 2.08 · 1xBet
2.75	1.97 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet	2.03 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
3.5	33% fair 2.99 best 2.75 · BetVictor	67% fair 1.50 best 1.42 · Betano

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	81% fair 1.23 best 1.25 · Betano	19% fair 5.37 best 4.10 · BetVictor
2.25	1.55 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet	2.81 fair best 2.46 · 1xBet
2.5	56% fair 1.77 best 1.75 · Betano	44% fair 2.29 best 2.08 · 1xBet
2.75	1.97 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet	2.03 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
3	2.30 fair best 2.25 · Betano	1.77 fair best 1.64 · BetVictor
3.25	2.64 fair best 2.33 · 1xBet	1.61 fair best 1.51 · BetVictor
3.5	33% fair 2.99 best 2.75 · BetVictor	67% fair 1.50 best 1.42 · Betano
4.5	16% fair 6.38 best 5.00 · BetVictor	84% fair 1.19 best 1.16 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
64% fair 1.56 best 1.52 · Betano	71% fair 1.40 best 1.31 · Betano	65% fair 1.54 best 1.52 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Piast Gliwice	Cracovia Krakow
−0.5	34% fair 2.93 best 2.52 · Betano	66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · Betano
−0.25	2.47 fair best 2.28 · 1xBet	1.68 fair best 1.58 · BetVictor
0	2.02 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet	1.98 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.71 fair best 1.63 · BetVictor	2.41 fair best 2.10 · BetVictor
+0.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.50 · Betano	35% fair 2.86 best 2.52 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	Piast Gliwice	Cracovia Krakow
−1	5.26 fair best 4.40 · 1xBet	1.23 fair best 1.14 · 1xBet
−0.75	3.65 fair best 3.14 · 1xBet	1.38 fair best 1.27 · 1xBet
−0.5	34% fair 2.93 best 2.52 · Betano	66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · Betano
−0.25	2.47 fair best 2.28 · 1xBet	1.68 fair best 1.58 · BetVictor
0	2.02 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet	1.98 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.71 fair best 1.63 · BetVictor	2.41 fair best 2.10 · BetVictor
+0.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.50 · Betano	35% fair 2.86 best 2.52 · Betano
+0.75	1.39 fair best 1.32 · 1xBet	3.58 fair best 2.88 · 1xBet
+1	1.24 fair best 1.18 · 1xBet	5.23 fair best 3.90 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Piast Gliwice goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	42% fair 2.38 best 2.20 · 1xBet	58% fair 1.72 best 1.62 · BetVictor

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	80% fair 1.25 best 1.26 · Betano	20% fair 4.94 best 3.80 · BetVictor
1.5	42% fair 2.38 best 2.20 · 1xBet	58% fair 1.72 best 1.62 · BetVictor

Cracovia Krakow goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	42% fair 2.36 best 2.20 · Betano	58% fair 1.74 best 1.67 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	80% fair 1.24 best 1.26 · Betano	20% fair 5.09 best 4.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	42% fair 2.36 best 2.20 · Betano	58% fair 1.74 best 1.67 · Betfair Sportsbook

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
30% fair 3.36 best 3.28 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.48 best 2.30 · William Hill	30% fair 3.34 best 3.10 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.23 fair best 2.08 · 1xBet	1.81 fair best 1.68 · BetVictor
1.5	36% fair 2.77 best 2.62 · Betano	64% fair 1.56 best 1.50 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.47 fair best 1.47 · 1xBet	3.15 fair best 2.52 · 1xBet
1	1.71 fair best 1.78 · Betano	2.40 fair best 2.07 · BetVictor
1.25	2.23 fair best 2.08 · 1xBet	1.81 fair best 1.68 · BetVictor
1.5	36% fair 2.77 best 2.62 · Betano	64% fair 1.56 best 1.50 · William Hill
1.75	3.66 fair best 3.14 · 1xBet	1.38 fair best 1.34 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–113.5%fair 7.42
1–28.5%fair 11.83
2–18.3%fair 11.99
0–07.3%fair 13.63
2–26.2%fair 16.18
0–25.8%fair 17.31

Total goals

07%
111%
225%
322%
4+34%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Piast Gliwice at home, Cracovia Krakow away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Piast Gliwice	Cracovia Krakow
Goals scored per game	1.90 (1.90)	1.30 (0.80)
Goals conceded per game	1.50 (1.70)	1.60 (1.90)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (70%)	60% (60%)
Both teams scored	60% (70%)	70% (50%)
Clean sheets	30% (20%)	10% (30%)
Failed to score	10% (20%)	30% (50%)
xG for / against per game	1.31 / 2.05	1.90 / 1.43
Corners for / against per game	3.90 / 7.80	5.70 / 4.70
Cards per game	1.70	1.90

Over 2.5 goals: Piast Gliwice in 60% and Cracovia Krakow in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 56% for this match.

From 10 matches for Piast Gliwice and 10 for Cracovia Krakow. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–3–0 (Piast Gliwice wins – draws – Cracovia Krakow wins).

Piast Gliwice scored 1.8 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Cracovia Krakow scored 1.4 and conceded 1.8 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Piast Gliwice

D W L W W

avg 1.8 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Cracovia Krakow

D W L L L

avg 1.4 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

27 Feb 2026 Cracovia Krakow 2–3 Piast Gliwice

24 Aug 2025 Piast Gliwice 0–0 Cracovia Krakow

08 Dec 2024 Piast Gliwice 0–0 Cracovia Krakow

21 Jul 2024 Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Piast Gliwice

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 6c95be8a8ac0f5ec

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit