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Ekstraklasa predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Ekstraklasa fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 16:34 UTC and 17:20 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 17:00 UTC	Cracovia KrakowMotor Lublin	44% 2.14 fair 2.25	26% 3.75 fair 3.90	30% 3.30 fair 3.35	No value
Fri · 19:30 UTC	Gornik ZabrzeLegia Warszawa	48% 2.16 fair 2.10 +2.8%	26% 3.50 fair 3.84	26% 3.50 fair 3.80	Value flag
Sat · 11:15 UTC	Wisla PlockPiast Gliwice	46% 2.05 fair 2.17	27% 3.75 fair 3.66	27% 3.45 fair 3.77	No value
Sat · 13:45 UTC	Wieczysta KrakówJagiellonia	44% 2.25 fair 2.25	23% 4.00 fair 4.36	33% 2.92 fair 3.07	Value expired
Sat · 16:30 UTC	Lech PoznanWisla Krakow	55% 1.75 fair 1.81	23% 4.20 fair 4.44	22% 4.25 fair 4.50	No value
Sat · 19:15 UTC	GKS KatowiceWidzew Łódź	45% 2.15 fair 2.22	25% 3.85 fair 4.01	30% 3.15 fair 3.34	Value expired
Mon · 17:00 UTC	Zaglebie LubinKorona Kielce	38% 2.63 fair 2.63	28% 3.28 fair 3.59	34% 2.70 fair 2.93	No value
Mon · 17:00 UTC	Radomiak RadomSlask Wroclaw	44% 2.20 fair 2.28	26% 3.85 fair 3.89	30% 3.10 fair 3.28	No value
Mon · 19:30 UTC	Raków CzęstochowaPogon Szczecin	41% 2.35 fair 2.47	24% 3.75 fair 4.09	35% 3.05 fair 2.86	Not re-checked

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
25 Oct	Legia Warszawa – Lech Poznan	1–2	39%
25 Oct	Jagiellonia – Wisla Plock	1–0	48%
25 Oct	Slask Wroclaw – Wieczysta Kraków	2–0	31%
24 Oct	Wisla Krakow – Raków Częstochowa	2–1	53%
24 Oct	Pogon Szczecin – Radomiak Radom	4–3	59%
24 Oct	Korona Kielce – GKS Katowice	1–0	45%
24 Oct	Piast Gliwice – Cracovia Krakow	3–1	40%
23 Oct	Widzew Łódź – Gornik Zabrze	1–1	29%
23 Oct	Motor Lublin – Zaglebie Lubin	2–2	26%
19 Oct	Wisla Plock – Radomiak Radom	1–0	52%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Ekstraklasa

Across the matches we priced in Ekstraklasa, the market's average 1X2 margin is 9.27%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.41%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	11	9	1	1	29	10	+19	28
2	Gornik Zabrze	12	8	3	1	21	11	+10	27
3	Pogon Szczecin	11	7	3	1	19	9	+10	24
4	Legia Warszawa	12	6	5	1	23	11	+12	23
5	Wisla Krakow	12	6	3	3	19	15	+4	21
6	Piast Gliwice	12	6	2	4	22	18	+4	20
7	Zaglebie Lubin	12	5	4	3	15	15	+0	19
8	GKS Katowice	12	6	0	6	22	17	+5	18
9	Korona Kielce	12	5	3	4	14	18	-4	18
10	Jagiellonia	11	5	0	6	14	17	-3	15
11	Wisla Plock	11	4	2	5	10	16	-6	14
12	Motor Lublin	12	3	4	5	17	21	-4	13
13	Cracovia Krakow	12	3	3	6	14	19	-5	12
14	Widzew Łódź	12	1	8	3	15	16	-1	11
15	Slask Wroclaw	12	2	3	7	16	22	-6	9
16	Wieczysta Kraków	12	2	2	8	16	23	-7	8
17	Radomiak Radom	12	2	2	8	12	28	-16	8
18	Raków Częstochowa	12	2	0	10	16	28	-12	6

Team stats this season

106 matches this season: 2.96 goals per game, 59% over 2.5, 65% both teams scored. xG 3.10 per match (from 89 matches); 10.0 corners and 3.8 cards per match (from 106 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Raków Częstochowa	12	1.33	2.33	92%	92%	0%	1.63 / 2.20	9.3	2.2
Lech Poznan	11	2.64	0.91	82%	73%	27%	1.99 / 0.97	11.5	1.8
GKS Katowice	12	1.83	1.42	75%	58%	8%	1.73 / 1.90	10.2	2.2
Slask Wroclaw	12	1.33	1.83	75%	83%	17%	1.40 / 2.06	9.4	1.9
Motor Lublin	12	1.42	1.75	67%	75%	17%	1.78 / 1.29	7.9	1.8
Wieczysta Kraków	12	1.33	1.92	67%	67%	8%	1.67 / 1.69	10.6	2.1
Radomiak Radom	12	1.00	2.33	67%	58%	17%	1.42 / 1.83	11.0	1.9
Piast Gliwice	12	1.83	1.50	58%	58%	25%	1.30 / 1.91	11.8	1.8
Gornik Zabrze	12	1.75	0.92	58%	75%	25%	1.95 / 0.57	9.5	2.3
Wisla Krakow	12	1.58	1.25	58%	67%	25%	1.87 / 1.20	9.8	1.7
Cracovia Krakow	12	1.17	1.58	58%	67%	17%	1.76 / 1.40	10.6	2.0
Jagiellonia	11	1.27	1.55	55%	55%	18%	1.44 / 1.58	9.2	1.4
Zaglebie Lubin	12	1.25	1.25	50%	58%	33%	1.32 / 1.52	9.5	2.4
Widzew Łódź	12	1.25	1.33	50%	67%	33%	1.47 / 1.81	12.0	2.8
Wisla Plock	11	0.91	1.45	46%	36%	27%	1.22 / 1.44	10.3	1.4
Legia Warszawa	12	1.92	0.92	42%	75%	25%	1.44 / 1.22	8.8	1.2
Pogon Szczecin	11	1.73	0.82	36%	46%	46%	1.50 / 1.18	8.0	1.6
Korona Kielce	12	1.17	1.50	33%	58%	17%	1.31 / 1.53	10.6	1.5

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Lech Poznan	1.6	65.8%	0%
2	Gornik Zabrze	3	17.9%	0%
3	Legia Warszawa	4.2	6.6%	0%
4	Pogon Szczecin	4.7	4.7%	0%
5	Wisla Krakow	4.7	3.9%	0%
6	Piast Gliwice	8	0.2%	1.1%
7	Jagiellonia	8.2	0.2%	1.4%
8	GKS Katowice	8.3	0.2%	1.5%
9	Korona Kielce	8.4	0.3%	1.6%
10	Zaglebie Lubin	9	0.1%	2.2%
11	Wisla Plock	12	0%	15.6%
12	Motor Lublin	12.5	0%	19.1%
13	Cracovia Krakow	13.1	0%	25%
14	Slask Wroclaw	14.1	0%	37.3%
15	Widzew Łódź	14.1	0%	37.6%
16	Raków Częstochowa	14.5	0%	44.4%
17	Wieczysta Kraków	14.8	0%	47%
18	Radomiak Radom	15.9	0%	66.3%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Ekstraklasa predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Ekstraklasa is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Ekstraklasa fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Ekstraklasa betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Ekstraklasa match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit