Estrela vs Casa Pia
- Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
- Line-ups usually from
- Check my slip
The sharp market makes Estrela the most likely outcome at 57% — fair odds of 1.74. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Estrela: WLLDW; Casa Pia: WLWLD.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check
We flagged +1.1% on 1 on 18 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.
No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.
Betting on Estrela anyway? The best price we see is 1.74 at GTbets, -0.2% against the fair odds of 1.74. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp now | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Other estimates
| Sharp, recorded | 58% | 24% | 18% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 27% | 31% |
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Sharp now ·
Prices across 35 bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair line | 1.74 | 4.06 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1.69 | 3.75 | 5.04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange | 1.68 | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange | 1.68 | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| 888sport | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.68 | 3.65 | 4.90 |
| Coolbet | 1.70 | 3.85 ★ | 5.00 ★ |
| GTbets | 1.74 ★ | 3.63 | 4.80 |
| Tipico | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.00 ★ |
Show all 35 bookmakers
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.62 | 3.50 | 4.55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| Betway | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BoyleSports | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Casumo | 1.68 | 3.75 | 4.90 |
| Coral | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
| Grosvenor | 1.68 | 3.75 | 4.90 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.61 | 3.55 | 4.60 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.64 | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.62 | 4.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.68 | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.60 | 3.55 | 4.60 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.57 | 3.35 | 4.30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.68 | 3.75 | 4.90 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.66 | 3.55 | 4.30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.64 | 3.45 | 4.20 |
Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row
All markets at the fair price
Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 7 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).
Goals: over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% fair 1.36 best 1.33 · Betano | 26% fair 3.80 best 3.50 · Bet365 |
| 2.5 | 48% fair 2.11 best 2.02 · 1xBet | 52% fair 1.90 best 1.87 · 1xBet |
| 3.5 | 25% fair 3.98 best 3.40 · Bet365 | 75% fair 1.34 best 1.32 · Betano |
All lines (8)
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% fair 1.36 best 1.33 · Betano | 26% fair 3.80 best 3.50 · Bet365 |
| 2 | 1.56 fair best 1.52 · Betano | 2.79 fair best 2.60 · Betano |
| 2.25 | 1.83 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet | 2.20 fair best 2.13 · SBO |
| 2.5 | 48% fair 2.11 best 2.02 · 1xBet | 52% fair 1.90 best 1.87 · 1xBet |
| 2.75 | 2.43 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet | 1.70 fair best 1.68 · 1xBet |
| 3 | 3.07 fair best 2.80 · Betano | 1.48 fair best 1.47 · Betano |
| 3.5 | 25% fair 3.98 best 3.40 · Bet365 | 75% fair 1.34 best 1.32 · Betano |
| 4.5 | 11% fair 9.51 best 7.00 · Bet365 | 89% fair 1.12 best 1.12 · Betano |
Double chance
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
| 82% fair 1.22 best 1.20 · Betano | 75% fair 1.33 best 1.30 · 1xBet | 43% fair 2.34 best 2.16 · SBO |
Asian handicap (home team line)
| Line | Estrela | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| −1.25 | 2.91 fair best 2.68 · Bet365 | 1.52 fair best 1.46 · 1xBet |
| −1 | 2.46 fair best 2.35 · Bet365 | 1.69 fair best 1.62 · Betano |
| −0.75 | 2.00 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 | 2.00 fair best 1.93 · SBO |
| −0.5 | 57% fair 1.75 best 1.72 · Bet365 | 43% fair 2.33 best 2.19 · SBO |
| −0.25 | 1.53 fair best 1.52 · Bet365 | 2.90 fair best 2.55 · BetVictor |
All lines (9)
| Line | Estrela | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| −1.75 | 4.45 fair best 4.30 · 1xBet | 1.29 fair best 1.25 · 1xBet |
| −1.5 | 29% fair 3.39 best 3.30 · 1xBet | 71% fair 1.42 best 1.40 · Betano |
| −1.25 | 2.91 fair best 2.68 · Bet365 | 1.52 fair best 1.46 · 1xBet |
| −1 | 2.46 fair best 2.35 · Bet365 | 1.69 fair best 1.62 · Betano |
| −0.75 | 2.00 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 | 2.00 fair best 1.93 · SBO |
| −0.5 | 57% fair 1.75 best 1.72 · Bet365 | 43% fair 2.33 best 2.19 · SBO |
| −0.25 | 1.53 fair best 1.52 · Bet365 | 2.90 fair best 2.55 · BetVictor |
| 0 | 1.30 fair best 1.30 · Bet365 | 4.34 fair best 3.60 · BetVictor |
| +0.25 | 1.24 fair best 1.24 · Bet365 | 5.09 fair best 3.90 · 1xBet |
Goals by team
Estrela goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% fair 1.97 best 1.85 · Betano | 49% fair 2.03 best 1.91 · Betfair Sportsbook |
All lines (2)
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% fair 1.97 best 1.85 · Betano | 49% fair 2.03 best 1.91 · Betfair Sportsbook |
| 2.5 | 22% fair 4.50 best 3.75 · Bet365 | 78% fair 1.29 best 1.27 · Betano |
Casa Pia goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 60% fair 1.67 best 1.62 · Betfair Sportsbook | 40% fair 2.48 best 2.25 · Bet365 |
All lines (2)
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 60% fair 1.67 best 1.62 · Betfair Sportsbook | 40% fair 2.48 best 2.25 · Bet365 |
| 1.5 | 20% fair 4.97 best 3.90 · BetVictor | 80% fair 1.25 best 1.25 · Bet365 |
First half
First-half result
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 42% fair 2.39 best 2.30 · Bet365 | 42% fair 2.39 best 2.22 · Betano | 16% fair 6.11 best 5.35 · 1xBet |
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 70% fair 1.44 best 1.41 · BetVictor | 30% fair 3.28 best 3.00 · Betano |
| 1 | 2.01 fair best 1.99 · SBO | 1.99 fair best 2.00 · Betano |
| 1.5 | 30% fair 3.33 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook | 70% fair 1.43 best 1.47 · Betano |
All lines (5)
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 70% fair 1.44 best 1.41 · BetVictor | 30% fair 3.28 best 3.00 · Betano |
| 0.75 | 1.62 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet | 2.62 fair best 2.28 · 1xBet |
| 1 | 2.01 fair best 1.99 · SBO | 1.99 fair best 2.00 · Betano |
| 1.25 | 2.67 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet | 1.60 fair best 1.52 · BetVictor |
| 1.5 | 30% fair 3.33 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook | 70% fair 1.43 best 1.47 · Betano |
These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.
Most likely scores estimate
- 1–012.6%fair 7.92
- 1–111.7%fair 8.56
- 2–011.3%fair 8.89
- 2–19.6%fair 10.38
- 0–08.1%fair 12.35
- 3–06.4%fair 15.51
Total goals
- 08%
- 119%
- 226%
- 322%
- 4+26%
Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →
Team stats: recent matches
Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Estrela at home, Casa Pia away.
| Team statistics, recent matches | Estrela | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.80 (1.30) | 0.60 (0.60) |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.80 (1.40) | 1.70 (1.30) |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% (60%) | 30% (40%) |
| Both teams scored | 80% (50%) | 20% (30%) |
| Clean sheets | 0% (20%) | 30% (40%) |
| Failed to score | 20% (40%) | 60% (50%) |
| xG for / against per game | 1.13 / 1.73 | 0.86 / 1.62 |
| Corners for / against per game | 3.89 / 4.67 | 4.22 / 6.56 |
| Cards per game | 2.78 | 2.56 |
Over 2.5 goals: Estrela in 80% and Casa Pia in 30% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 48% for this match.
From 10 matches for Estrela and 10 for Casa Pia. xG, corners and cards: 9 and 9 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 3–0–2 (Estrela wins – draws – Casa Pia wins).
Estrela scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Casa Pia scored 0.8 and conceded 1.2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is FootballPredictions.net accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included