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Primeira Liga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Primeira Liga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 20:04 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 20:45 UTC	FamalicaoArouca	48% 2.00 fair 2.09	27% 3.50 fair 3.70	25% 3.76 fair 3.99	No value
Sat · 15:30 UTC	NacionalAcademico Viseu	33% 3.10 fair 3.07	28% 3.50 fair 3.53	39% 2.41 fair 2.56	Not re-checked
Sat · 20:30 UTC	Sporting CPMoreirense	85% 1.17 fair 1.18	10% 8.20 fair 10.33	5% 17.00 fair 18.65	No value
Sun · 15:30 UTC	EstorilMaritimo	46% 2.08 fair 2.16	27% 3.50 fair 3.74	27% 3.50 fair 3.70	No value
Sun · 20:30 UTC	Rio AveSC Braga	15% 6.50 fair 6.87	21% 4.20 fair 4.71	64% 1.56 fair 1.56	Value expired

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
02 Nov	GIL Vicente – Vitória SC	0–0	—
02 Nov	Benfica – Alverca	1–0	—
01 Nov	SC Braga – Famalicao	3–0	55%
01 Nov	Maritimo – Santa Clara	0–2	39%
01 Nov	Academico Viseu – Rio Ave	2–1	51%
01 Nov	Arouca – Nacional	1–0	59%
31 Oct	FC Porto – Estoril	4–0	86%
31 Oct	Moreirense – Estrela	2–1	34%
30 Oct	Casa Pia – Sporting CP	0–2	74%
26 Oct	Santa Clara – Benfica	1–2	73%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Primeira Liga

Across the matches we priced in Primeira Liga, the market's average 1X2 margin is 7.99%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 3.74%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	25	4	+21	30
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	26	8	+18	22
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	23	11	+12	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	15	6	+9	21
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	13	7	+6	20
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	15	12	+3	20
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	8	7	+1	14
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	12	11	+1	14
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	13	17	-4	14
10	Alverca	9	3	2	4	13	13	+0	11
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	14	14	+0	10
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	15	19	-4	10
13	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	10	10	+0	8
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	9	21	-12	8
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	10	19	-9	7
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	9	23	-14	7
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	5	19	-14	7
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5	19	-14	2

Top scorers — 2026/27 · updated 2 Nov 2026

#	Player	Team	Goals	Assists
1	V. Pavlidis	Benfica	9	3
2	L. Suárez	Sporting CP	8	1
3	G. Prestianni	Benfica	6	4
4	Gabri Veiga	FC Porto	5	4
4	Borja Sainz	FC Porto	5	1

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

88 matches this season: 2.73 goals per game, 56% over 2.5, 48% both teams scored. xG 2.53 per match (from 75 matches); 8.8 corners and 4.6 cards per match (from 88 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Benfica	9	2.89	0.89	89%	56%	44%	2.34 / 0.73	9.4	2.6
Sporting CP	10	2.30	1.10	70%	70%	30%	1.85 / 0.75	7.8	2.4
Estrela	10	1.50	1.90	70%	70%	0%	1.25 / 1.17	8.7	2.1
Academico Viseu	10	1.50	1.20	70%	60%	20%	1.01 / 1.78	8.6	2.8
Moreirense	10	1.30	1.70	70%	60%	10%	0.78 / 1.64	7.3	2.3
Maritimo	10	0.90	2.10	70%	60%	10%	0.97 / 1.45	7.7	2.0
FC Porto	10	2.50	0.40	60%	40%	60%	2.23 / 0.82	10.2	1.0
Famalicao	10	1.40	1.40	60%	50%	30%	0.88 / 1.37	9.1	2.3
SC Braga	10	1.20	1.10	60%	50%	40%	1.40 / 0.75	7.4	2.3
Rio Ave	10	0.90	2.30	60%	30%	10%	0.69 / 1.72	9.6	2.0
Alverca	9	1.44	1.44	56%	67%	11%	1.51 / 1.57	8.1	2.4
Nacional	10	1.00	1.90	50%	40%	20%	0.71 / 1.39	9.3	1.4
Estoril	10	0.50	1.90	50%	50%	10%	1.03 / 1.62	9.4	2.2
Santa Clara	10	1.50	0.60	40%	40%	60%	1.24 / 0.89	8.7	3.1
Arouca	10	1.30	0.70	40%	30%	60%	1.14 / 1.18	8.4	2.9
Vitória SC	9	1.11	1.11	33%	33%	33%	1.49 / 1.06	9.8	2.9
Casa Pia	10	0.50	1.90	30%	20%	20%	0.81 / 1.74	10.1	2.4
GIL Vicente	9	0.89	0.78	22%	33%	44%	1.27 / 1.01	8.3	2.1

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Primeira Liga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Primeira Liga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Primeira Liga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Primeira Liga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Primeira Liga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit