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Eredivisie

Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
  • Line-ups usually from
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The sharp market makes Utrecht the most likely outcome at 59% — fair odds of 1.71. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Utrecht: WWLWD; PEC Zwolle: WLLLD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value
Edge at detection +0.8% @ 1.68 ·
Edge right now No value at the current price

We flagged +0.8% on 1 on 18 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Utrecht anyway? The best price we see is 1.68 at 1xBet, -1.7% against the fair odds of 1.71. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1 Home win 60%
1X2
Sharp now59%22%20%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded60%21%19%
Our model60%22%18%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.67
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.62 / 4.38 / 4.79
Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 1.68 / 4.60 / 5.30
Market Gap —
Confidence —
Prediction result Pending

Prices across 34 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.714.655.01
Pinnacle sharp 1.66 4.28 4.60
1xBet 1.68 ★ 4.28 4.69
888sport 1.61 4.00 4.40
BetOnline.ag 1.62 4.45 4.85
BetVictor 1.61 4.33 4.60
Betano (UK) 1.61 4.33 4.60
Betclic (FR) 1.52 4.15 4.55
Unibet (NL) 1.62 4.60 ★ 5.30 ★
Show all 34 bookmakers
Betfair Sportsbook 1.62 4.33 4.50
Betfred (UK) 1.62 4.00 4.33
Betsson 1.62 4.26 4.58
Betway 1.61 4.20 4.20
BoyleSports 1.57 4.00 4.20
Casumo 1.56 4.35 4.90
Codere (IT) 1.59 4.20 4.60
Coolbet 1.65 4.40 4.50
Coral 1.61 4.40 4.60
Grosvenor 1.55 4.25 4.80
Ladbrokes 1.61 4.33 4.60
LeoVegas (SE) 1.51 4.10 4.60
LiveScore Bet 1.54 4.10 4.70
Marathonbet 1.63 4.15 4.55
Nordic Bet 1.65 4.30 4.65
PMU (FR) 1.51 4.10 4.60
Paddy Power 1.57 4.20 4.40
Sky Bet 1.55 3.80 4.00
Tipico 1.60 4.40 4.60
Unibet (FR) 1.48 4.00 4.40
Unibet (SE) 1.56 4.35 4.90
Unibet (UK) 1.60 4.35 4.75
Virgin Bet 1.54 4.10 4.70
William Hill 1.62 4.00 4.40
Winamax (DE) 1.54 4.20 4.30
Winamax (FR) 1.52 4.10 4.20

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 10 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
2.5 65% fair 1.54 best 1.44 · Bet365 35% fair 2.85 best 2.70 · Bet365
3.25 2.09 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet 1.91 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet
3.5 43% fair 2.35 best 2.15 · 1xBet 57% fair 1.74 best 1.74 · 1xBet
All lines (9)
Line OverUnder
1.5 85% fair 1.17 best 1.12 · Bet365 15% fair 6.86 best 6.00 · Bet365
2.5 65% fair 1.54 best 1.44 · Bet365 35% fair 2.85 best 2.70 · Bet365
2.75 1.66 fair best 1.52 · BetVictor 2.52 fair best 2.32 · 1xBet
3 1.83 fair best 1.65 · BetVictor 2.21 fair best 2.07 · BetVictor
3.25 2.09 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet 1.91 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet
3.5 43% fair 2.35 best 2.15 · 1xBet 57% fair 1.74 best 1.74 · 1xBet
3.75 2.75 fair best 2.32 · Marathonbet 1.57 fair best 1.53 · BetVictor
4.5 23% fair 4.30 best 3.60 · BetVictor 77% fair 1.30 best 1.30 · Bet365
5.5 11% fair 9.52 best 7.00 · BetVictor 89% fair 1.12 best 1.12 · Bet365

Double chance
1X12X2
80% fair 1.25 best 1.20 · 1xBet 78% fair 1.27 best 1.23 · 1xBet 41% fair 2.41 best 2.21 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line UtrechtPEC Zwolle
−1.5 36% fair 2.79 best 2.62 · 1xBet 64% fair 1.56 best 1.52 · 1xBet
−1.25 2.45 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet 1.69 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
−1 2.12 fair best 2.05 · Bet365 1.90 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
−0.75 1.84 fair best 1.80 · Bet365 2.19 fair best 2.00 · Bet365
−0.5 60% fair 1.67 best 1.65 · Bet365 40% fair 2.50 best 2.20 · Bet365
All lines (10)
Line UtrechtPEC Zwolle
−2 4.63 fair best 3.90 · Bet365 1.28 fair best 1.24 · Bet365
−1.75 3.44 fair best 3.38 · 1xBet 1.41 fair best 1.35 · Bet365
−1.5 36% fair 2.79 best 2.62 · 1xBet 64% fair 1.56 best 1.52 · 1xBet
−1.25 2.45 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet 1.69 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
−1 2.12 fair best 2.05 · Bet365 1.90 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
−0.75 1.84 fair best 1.80 · Bet365 2.19 fair best 2.00 · Bet365
−0.5 60% fair 1.67 best 1.65 · Bet365 40% fair 2.50 best 2.20 · Bet365
−0.25 1.48 fair best 1.48 · Bet365 3.06 fair best 2.62 · BetVictor
0 1.30 fair best 1.30 · Bet365 4.33 fair best 3.45 · Bet365
+0.25 1.27 fair best 1.24 · Bet365 4.68 fair best 3.90 · Bet365

Goals by team

Utrecht goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 64% fair 1.55 best 1.47 · BetVictor 36% fair 2.81 best 2.62 · Bet365
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 64% fair 1.55 best 1.47 · BetVictor 36% fair 2.81 best 2.62 · Bet365
2.5 35% fair 2.84 best 2.50 · Bet365 65% fair 1.54 best 1.52 · 1xBet

PEC Zwolle goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 31% fair 3.27 best 2.60 · BetVictor 69% fair 1.44 best 1.50 · Bet365
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 70% fair 1.43 best 1.33 · Bet365 30% fair 3.33 best 3.25 · Bet365
1.5 31% fair 3.27 best 2.60 · BetVictor 69% fair 1.44 best 1.50 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1X2
46% fair 2.16 best 2.10 · 1xBet 35% fair 2.82 best 2.62 · Bet365 18% fair 5.48 best 5.00 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 1.92 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet 2.09 fair best 2.00 · 1xBet
1.5 43% fair 2.35 best 2.10 · William Hill 57% fair 1.74 best 1.73 · Bet365
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.35 fair best 1.32 · BetVictor 3.85 fair best 3.34 · 1xBet
1 1.50 fair best 1.44 · BetVictor 3.01 fair best 2.71 · 1xBet
1.25 1.92 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet 2.09 fair best 2.00 · 1xBet
1.5 43% fair 2.35 best 2.10 · William Hill 57% fair 1.74 best 1.73 · Bet365
1.75 2.97 fair best 2.41 · BetVictor 1.51 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 2–19.7%fair 10.26
  2. 1–19.6%fair 10.37
  3. 2–08.2%fair 12.26
  4. 1–07.0%fair 14.21
  5. 3–17.0%fair 14.34
  6. 3–05.8%fair 17.13

Total goals

  • 04%
  • 111%
  • 220%
  • 322%
  • 4+43%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Utrecht at home, PEC Zwolle away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesUtrechtPEC Zwolle
Goals scored per game 1.60 (2.30) 1.00 (1.20)
Goals conceded per game 2.60 (1.70) 2.40 (2.80)
Over 2.5 goals 90% (60%) 60% (70%)
Both teams scored 80% (60%) 40% (70%)
Clean sheets 10% (40%) 10% (10%)
Failed to score 20% (0%) 50% (20%)
xG for / against per game 1.35 / 1.83 1.02 / 2.03
Corners for / against per game 3.80 / 6.40 4.10 / 7.70
Cards per game 2.00 1.30

Over 2.5 goals: Utrecht in 90% and PEC Zwolle in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 65% for this match.

From 10 matches for Utrecht and 10 for PEC Zwolle. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 3–2–0 (Utrecht wins – draws – PEC Zwolle wins).

Utrecht scored 2 and conceded 2.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; PEC Zwolle scored 1.2 and conceded 2.8 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Utrecht has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Utrecht here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Utrecht
W W L W D
avg 2 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)
PEC Zwolle
W L L L D
avg 1.2 scored · 2.8 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
22 Feb 2026 Utrecht 1–1 PEC Zwolle
31 Aug 2025 PEC Zwolle 0–2 Utrecht
01 Feb 2025 PEC Zwolle 3–3 Utrecht
11 Aug 2024 Utrecht 1–0 PEC Zwolle
03 Apr 2024 Utrecht 5–1 PEC Zwolle

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.62
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 601f089fed04da26

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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