Arda Kardzhali 0–0 Levski Sofia
22' · Live score from API-Football, about a minute behind; the official result is confirmed after the match.
The match has started. Before kick-off the sharp market made Levski Sofia the most likely outcome at 59% (fair odds 1.69). We make no new value calls once a match is under way. Recent form — Arda Kardzhali: LDLLW; Levski Sofia: WDWLD.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 17% | 27% | 56% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 26% | 25% | 50% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Starting line-ups
Arda Kardzhali
- 16 P. Bachev FW
- 1 A. Gospodinov GK
- 35 D. Velkovski DF
- 21 V. Velev DF
- 6 V. Popov DF
- 24 M. Paskalev DF
- 10 S. Kovachev FW
- 80 L. Kotev MF
- 99 B. Karagaren FW
- 91 S. Ivanov FW
- 2 Derick Fernando da Silva DF
Bench: B. Akandzha, D. Akintola, Y. Georgiev, A. Kabov, V. Lyubenov, Nabil Makni, Adama Ardile Traoré, S. Vasilev, A. Vutov, D. Yankov
Coach: A. Tunchev
Regular starters not in the XI
- Viktor Lyubenov — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Levski Sofia
- 20 Álex Centelles DF
- 50 K. Dimitrov DF
- 8 M. Grujić MF
- 71 O. Kamdem DF
- 19 E. El Moubarik MF
- 11 A. Oko-Flex FW
- 7 Reinaldo FW
- 31 N. Serafimov DF
- 35 Serginho MF
- 22 M. Soula MF
- 1 O. Vladimirov GK
Bench: Everton Bala, P. Hristov, Maicon, C. Makoun, Aldair, J. Perea, A. Raychev, M. Sangaré, S. Stoyanchov, S. Vutsov, A. Bouras
Coach: Julio Velázquez
Regular starters not in the XI
- C. Makoun — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- S. Vutsov — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Maicon — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Everton Bala — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Match context
Arda Kardzhali averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Levski Sofia averaged 1.0 and 0.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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