NK Osijek 0–1 Rudes
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, NK Osijek was the most likely outcome at 68% (fair odds 1.48). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — NK Osijek: DLDWL; Rudes: LWDLL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 27' Saad El Haddad · yellow card · Rudes
- 40' Ivan Dolček · disallowed by VAR · NK Osijek
- 57' Slavko Bralić · yellow card · Rudes
- 75' Ivan Đorić · yellow card · Rudes
- 81' 0–1 Cherno Saho · goal · Rudes
- 87' Filip Taraba · yellow card · Rudes
Match stats
| Match stats | NK Osijek | Rudes |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 67 | 33 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.62 | 1.89 |
| Shots | 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 4 |
| Corners | 7 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 21 | 16 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 3 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- NK Osijek win 68% did not happen
- Draw 19% did not happen
- Rudes win 13% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 61% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
NK Osijek 4-2-3-1
- 31 M. Malenica GK
- 22 J. Kruiver DF
- 98 Izak Ježić DF
- 26 L. Jelenić DF
- 2 M. Heister DF
- 18 Niko Farkaš MF
- 16 O. Petrusenko MF
- 39 D. Bukvić MF
- 11 Luka Tunjic MF
- 30 A. Ljatifi MF
- 79 A. León FW
Bench: I. Barić, Balelo, Cantero, N. Curcija, I. Dolček, D. Kalem, Ivano Kolarik, S. Mustafic, L. Posavec, Mateo Sabo, B. Bakti
Coach: Fede Bessone
Regular starters not in the XI
- L. Vrbancic — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Rudes 4-2-3-1
- 95 L. Rogić GK
- 2 B. Unušić DF
- 42 M. ZebiÄ DF
- 5 M. Stolnik DF
- 27 Felipe Curcio DF
- 24 I. Đorić MF
- 37 N. Skoko MF
- 29 S. Bralić MF
- 88 S. El Haddad MF
- 10 V. Seitz MF
- 78 J. Fernándes FW
Bench: Filip Holjevac, L. Ilečić, T. Kolega, K. Lovrić, J. Pejic, J. Poldrugač, Luka Popovic, Cherno Saho, F. Taraba, M. Šlogar, I. Žutić
Coach: A. Peternac
Regular starters not in the XI
- Xavi — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 68 / 19 / 13% when the line-ups came out, 68 / 19 / 13% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 68% | 19% | 14% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
NK Osijek averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Rudes averaged 1.4 and 2.4 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is FootballPredictions.net accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included