Croatia

Croatia HNL predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Croatia HNL fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 12:18 UTC · prices older than 6 hours may have moved: re-check at your bookmaker

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 17:00 UTC	NK Slaven BelupoIstra 1961	41% 2.27 fair 2.41	24% 3.75 fair 4.12	34% 2.95 fair 2.92	Not re-checked
Sat · 14:00 UTC	HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Gorica	74% 1.36 fair 1.36	17% 5.20 fair 5.97	10% 9.00 fair 10.32	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
27 Oct	Dinamo Zagreb – HNK Rijeka	2–1	62%
26 Oct	Istra 1961 – HNK Hajduk Split	2–2	22%
25 Oct	NK Osijek – Rudes	0–1	13%
24 Oct	NK Varazdin – NK Slaven Belupo	1–2	20%
24 Oct	HNK Gorica – NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	0–0	29%
18 Oct	NK Slaven Belupo – Dinamo Zagreb	1–5	70%
18 Oct	HNK Hajduk Split – NK Varazdin	1–0	54%
17 Oct	NK Osijek – HNK Gorica	1–1	23%
17 Oct	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – Istra 1961	2–0	41%
16 Oct	Rudes – HNK Rijeka	1–2	72%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 19:58 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	HNK Hajduk Split	11	7	2	2	21	11	+10	23
2	Dinamo Zagreb	9	6	1	2	23	12	+11	19
3	NK Varazdin	11	5	3	3	15	10	+5	18
4	HNK Rijeka	9	5	2	2	16	12	+4	17
5	NK Osijek	11	5	2	4	19	16	+3	17
6	Istra 1961	11	3	4	4	19	18	+1	13
7	NK Slaven Belupo	11	4	1	6	14	23	-9	13
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	3	2	6	13	17	-4	11
9	Rudes	11	3	1	7	14	27	-13	10
10	HNK Gorica	11	1	4	6	7	15	-8	7

Team stats this season

53 matches this season: 3.04 goals per game, 62% over 2.5, 55% both teams scored. xG 2.72 per match (from 53 matches); 9.5 corners and 4.0 cards per match (from 53 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Rudes	11	1.27	2.45	82%	64%	9%	0.83 / 1.89	9.9	2.6
Dinamo Zagreb	9	2.56	1.33	78%	67%	33%	2.38 / 1.09	9.5	1.8
HNK Hajduk Split	11	1.91	1.00	73%	46%	46%	1.50 / 0.96	7.0	2.1
Istra 1961	11	1.73	1.64	73%	64%	18%	1.49 / 1.25	10.4	1.9
NK Slaven Belupo	11	1.27	2.09	73%	55%	9%	1.10 / 1.97	8.7	2.0
HNK Rijeka	9	1.78	1.33	67%	67%	22%	1.69 / 0.91	9.3	1.4
NK Osijek	11	1.73	1.45	55%	46%	36%	1.38 / 1.42	10.0	2.0
NK Varazdin	11	1.36	0.91	46%	46%	46%	1.43 / 0.91	8.7	1.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	11	1.18	1.55	46%	55%	18%	1.07 / 1.66	11.6	3.3
HNK Gorica	11	0.64	1.36	36%	46%	27%	0.96 / 1.40	10.1	1.4

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	HNK Hajduk Split	1.6	51.5%	0%
2	Dinamo Zagreb	1.7	43.7%	0%
3	HNK Rijeka	3.5	3.1%	0.4%
4	NK Varazdin	4.1	1.5%	0.6%
5	NK Osijek	6.1	0.1%	10.3%
6	Istra 1961	6.6	0%	17.8%
7	NK Slaven Belupo	6.8	0%	19%
8	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	7.5	0%	33.9%
9	Rudes	7.8	0%	39.8%
10	HNK Gorica	9.2	0%	78.2%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Croatia HNL predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Croatia HNL is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Croatia HNL fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Croatia HNL betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Croatia HNL match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit