D. La Serena 3–1 Concepción
Final score · Half-time 2–1 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, D. La Serena was the most likely outcome at 37% (fair odds 2.71). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — D. La Serena: LLWWD; Concepción: DDLWD.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 5' Y. Rodríguez · yellow card · Concepción
- 14' 1–0 Matías Marín · goal · D. La Serena
- 20' Francis Mac Allister · yellow card · D. La Serena
- 21' 1–1 Jorge Henríquez · goal · Concepción
- 37' 2–1 Matías Marín · goal · assist Rafael Delgado · D. La Serena
- 39' Ariel Cáceres · yellow card · Concepción
- 41' Y. Rodríguez · red card (after a yellow) · Concepción
- 42' Matías Marín · yellow card · D. La Serena
- 45+2' Fausto Grillo · yellow card · Concepción
- 57' Diego Rubio · yellow card · D. La Serena
- 84' 3–1 Jeisson Vargas (pen.) · D. La Serena
Match stats
| Match stats | D. La Serena | Concepción |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 66 | 34 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.76 | 0.18 |
| Shots | 17 | 3 |
| Shots on target | 8 | 1 |
| Corners | 11 | 3 |
| Fouls | 20 | 15 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 0 | 5 |
What the market said before kick-off
- D. La Serena win 38% happened
- Draw 28% did not happen
- Concepción win 34% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 51% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
D. La Serena 3-4-1-2
- 31 J. Tapia GK
- 34 I. Rasso DF
- 5 L. Alarcón DF
- 33 R. Delgado DF
- 23 M. Marín MF
- 4 F. Mac Allister MF
- 8 G. Escalante MF
- 17 Y. Salazar MF
- 10 J. Vargas MF
- 11 D. Rubio FW
- 2 G. Figueroa FW
Bench: Milovan Velasquez, S. Diaz, J. Gutiérrez, Á. Henríquez, Y. Salazar, A. Oroz, M. Pinto, M. Pérez, I. Sáez
Coach: Felipe Gutiérrez
Concepción 4-3-3
- 25 N. Araya GK
- 4 A. Cáceres DF
- 21 N. Rodríguez DF
- 37 F. Grillo DF
- 29 D. Varas DF
- 18 Y. Rodríguez MF
- 20 J. Henríquez MF
- 16 M. Sandoval MF
- 19 A. Jara FW
- 32 J. Larrivey FW
- 30 E. Espinoza FW
Bench: M. Cavalleri, D. Carrasco, D. Acosta, Franco Caceres, M. Dávila, C. Escobar, J. Montecinos, C. Riquelme, N. Veloso
Coach: Fernando Díaz
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Two most likely results
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 37% | 27% | 36% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
D. La Serena averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Concepción averaged 0.8 and 0.8 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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