Chile

Primera Division Chile predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Primera Division Chile fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 22:23 UTC and 22:24 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Mon · 23:30 UTC	ConcepciónPalestino	37% 2.60 fair 2.69	27% 3.40 fair 3.71	36% 2.75 fair 2.79	No value
Sun · 21:00 UTC	Universidad de ChileCobresal	76% 1.35 fair 1.31 +3.0%	14% 6.00 fair 7.20	10% 9.69 fair 10.21	Strong value
Sun · 21:00 UTC	Union La CaleraHuachipato	47% 2.07 fair 2.14	26% 3.55 fair 3.81	27% 3.53 fair 3.70	Value expired
Sun · 21:00 UTC	A. ItalianoCoquimbo Unido	36% 3.10 fair 2.81 +10.3%	28% 3.30 fair 3.58	36% 2.63 fair 2.74	Strong value
Sun · 21:00 UTC	NublenseColo Colo	19% 4.90 fair 5.18	25% 3.70 fair 3.93	55% 1.79 fair 1.81	Value expired
Sun · 21:00 UTC	U. CatolicaDeportes Limache	64% 1.50 fair 1.56	20% 4.65 fair 5.07	16% 6.60 fair 6.11	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
01 Nov	Cobresal – Everton de Vina	2–2	25%
01 Nov	U. Catolica – Universidad de Chile	1–0	30%
01 Nov	Huachipato – D. La Serena	0–0	26%
31 Oct	O'Higgins – Nublense	1–0	47%
30 Oct	Coquimbo Unido – Union La Calera	1–0	57%
30 Oct	Colo Colo – Universidad de Concepcion	6–1	73%
28 Oct	U. Catolica – A. Italiano	1–1	—
26 Oct	Universidad de Chile – Everton de Vina	4–1	53%
25 Oct	Universidad de Concepcion – Deportes Limache	0–1	37%
25 Oct	Palestino – Colo Colo	1–1	24%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Primera Division Chile

Across the matches we priced in Primera Division Chile, the market's average 1X2 margin is 9.05%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.38%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	26	18	4	4	57	29	+28	58
2	Universidad de Chile	26	14	6	6	45	21	+24	48
3	U. Catolica	26	14	4	8	53	37	+16	46
4	Everton de Vina	26	11	7	8	43	33	+10	40
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	39	36	+3	38
6	Deportes Limache	25	11	4	10	46	37	+9	37
7	Coquimbo Unido	25	10	5	10	38	35	+3	35
8	Nublense	26	9	8	9	30	39	-9	35
9	D. La Serena	26	8	10	8	39	42	-3	34
10	Huachipato	25	9	6	10	34	40	-6	33
11	Concepción	25	9	5	11	27	30	-3	32
12	O'Higgins	26	9	4	13	30	39	-9	31
13	A. Italiano	25	7	9	9	28	33	-5	30
14	Cobresal	26	7	6	13	38	48	-10	27
15	Universidad de Concepcion	26	6	5	15	19	47	-28	23
16	Union La Calera	26	5	6	15	23	43	-20	21

Team stats this season

206 matches this season: 2.86 goals per game, 54% over 2.5, 54% both teams scored. xG 2.62 per match (from 55 matches); 9.9 corners and 5.3 cards per match (from 204 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Deportes Limache	25	1.84	1.48	72%	56%	24%	1.65 / 1.57	9.5	2.2
U. Catolica	26	2.04	1.42	69%	65%	23%	1.40 / 1.07	9.4	3.2
Colo Colo	26	2.19	1.12	58%	62%	31%	1.90 / 1.29	10.3	1.7
D. La Serena	26	1.50	1.62	58%	58%	27%	1.50 / 1.35	10.0	2.9
Cobresal	26	1.38	1.96	58%	58%	15%	1.46 / 1.12	10.9	2.5
Union La Calera	26	1.04	1.46	58%	50%	23%	0.79 / 1.54	10.4	2.5
Palestino	25	1.56	1.44	56%	64%	20%	1.61 / 1.12	9.1	3.0
Universidad de Chile	26	1.73	0.81	54%	46%	42%	2.02 / 0.94	10.1	2.3
Everton de Vina	26	1.54	1.31	54%	54%	23%	1.49 / 1.71	10.3	2.6
Coquimbo Unido	26	1.46	1.38	54%	65%	19%	1.29 / 1.31	10.3	3.2
Huachipato	26	1.35	1.54	54%	46%	31%	1.20 / 0.99	9.6	2.2
A. Italiano	25	1.12	1.32	48%	48%	36%	1.01 / 1.24	8.9	2.9
O'Higgins	26	1.15	1.50	46%	50%	19%	1.16 / 1.20	10.4	2.6
Nublense	26	1.15	1.50	46%	54%	27%	0.99 / 1.53	9.1	2.9
Universidad de Concepcion	26	0.73	1.81	46%	46%	19%	1.25 / 1.51	11.0	3.5
Concepción	25	1.08	1.20	32%	40%	32%	1.02 / 1.20	9.0	2.4

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Colo Colo	2.2	41.3%	0%
2	Universidad de Chile	2.9	25.6%	0%
3	Concepción	3.7	13.5%	0%
4	U. Catolica	3.8	14.5%	0%
5	Everton de Vina	6.1	2.6%	0.1%
6	A. Italiano	7.8	0.8%	0.6%
7	Deportes Limache	7.8	0.5%	0.7%
8	D. La Serena	8	0.4%	0.6%
9	Palestino	8.5	0.4%	0.8%
10	Cobresal	9.4	0.2%	2.4%
11	Nublense	9.9	0.1%	4.1%
12	Huachipato	11.3	0%	10.8%
13	O'Higgins	12.1	0%	17.2%
14	Coquimbo Unido	13.1	0%	32.7%
15	Union La Calera	14.4	0%	58.7%
16	Universidad de Concepcion	14.9	0%	71.3%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Primera Division Chile predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Primera Division Chile is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Primera Division Chile fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Primera Division Chile betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Primera Division Chile match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit