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Swiss Super League

BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes BSC Young Boys the most likely outcome at 53% — fair odds of 1.89. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — BSC Young Boys: WWDDW; FC ST. Gallen: WWLLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on BSC Young Boys anyway? The best price we see is 1.81 at GTbets, -4.1% against the fair odds of 1.89. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 78%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now53%22%25%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded53%22%25%
Our model45%28%27%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.29
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.83 / 4.14 / 3.80
Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 1.81 / 4.50 / 3.70
Market Gap —
Confidence —
Prediction result Pending

Prices across 35 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.894.454.07
Pinnacle sharp 1.83 4.14 3.80
1xBet 1.80 4.25 3.60
888sport 1.80 4.33 3.30
BetVictor 1.75 4.33 3.40
Betfair Sportsbook 1.75 4.50 ★ 3.60
Coolbet 1.80 4.50 ★ 3.60
GTbets 1.81 ★ 4.30 3.66
Tipico 1.77 4.30 3.70 ★
Show all 35 bookmakers
Betano (UK) 1.75 4.33 3.40
Betclic (FR) 1.67 4.05 3.40
Betfred (UK) 1.73 4.33 3.50
Betsson 1.78 4.15 3.55
Betway 1.77 4.00 3.60
BoyleSports 1.67 4.20 3.00
Casumo 1.80 4.25 3.60
Codere (IT) 1.78 4.20 3.55
Coral 1.75 4.00 3.30
Grosvenor 1.80 4.25 3.60
Ladbrokes 1.75 4.00 3.30
LeoVegas 1.77 4.10 3.40
LeoVegas (SE) 1.73 4.00 3.45
LiveScore Bet 1.72 4.00 3.40
Marathonbet 1.78 4.25 3.62
Nordic Bet 1.78 4.15 3.55
PMU (FR) 1.72 4.00 3.40
Paddy Power 1.70 4.33 3.50
Sky Bet 1.67 3.90 3.25
Unibet (FR) 1.66 3.95 3.30
Unibet (NL) 1.80 4.25 3.60
Unibet (SE) 1.80 4.25 3.60
Unibet (UK) 1.78 4.20 3.50
Virgin Bet 1.72 4.00 3.40
William Hill 1.80 4.33 3.30
Winamax (DE) 1.70 4.10 3.25
Winamax (FR) 1.68 4.00 3.20

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 12 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
3.5 59% fair 1.70 best 1.62 · 1xBet 41% fair 2.42 best 2.22 · 1xBet
4 2.08 fair best 1.90 · BetVictor 1.93 fair best 1.78 · BetVictor
4.5 38% fair 2.60 best 2.38 · Bet365 62% fair 1.62 best 1.53 · Bet365
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
2.5 77% fair 1.29 best 1.25 · Bet365 23% fair 4.44 best 4.00 · Bet365
3.5 59% fair 1.70 best 1.62 · 1xBet 41% fair 2.42 best 2.22 · 1xBet
3.75 1.85 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet 2.18 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet
4 2.08 fair best 1.90 · BetVictor 1.93 fair best 1.78 · BetVictor
4.25 2.34 fair best 2.10 · BetVictor 1.75 fair best 1.63 · BetVictor
4.5 38% fair 2.60 best 2.38 · Bet365 62% fair 1.62 best 1.53 · Bet365
5.5 22% fair 4.54 best 4.00 · BetVictor 78% fair 1.28 best 1.25 · Bet365
6.5 10% fair 9.53 best 7.50 · BetVictor 90% fair 1.12 best 1.10 · 1xBet

Double chance
1X12X2
75% fair 1.33 best 1.30 · William Hill 78% fair 1.29 best 1.22 · Bet365 47% fair 2.13 best 2.00 · Bet365

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line BSC Young BoysFC ST. Gallen
−1.25 2.79 fair best 2.50 · BetVictor 1.56 fair best 1.52 · Bet365
−1 2.48 fair best 2.25 · Bet365 1.68 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
−0.75 2.11 fair best 1.98 · Bet365 1.90 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
−0.5 53% fair 1.90 best 1.78 · Bet365 47% fair 2.12 best 2.02 · Bet365
−0.25 1.67 fair best 1.60 · Bet365 2.49 fair best 2.30 · Bet365
All lines (10)
Line BSC Young BoysFC ST. Gallen
−1.75 3.61 fair best 3.30 · Bet365 1.38 fair best 1.32 · Bet365
−1.5 32% fair 3.12 best 2.75 · Bet365 68% fair 1.47 best 1.42 · Bet365
−1.25 2.79 fair best 2.50 · BetVictor 1.56 fair best 1.52 · Bet365
−1 2.48 fair best 2.25 · Bet365 1.68 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
−0.75 2.11 fair best 1.98 · Bet365 1.90 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
−0.5 53% fair 1.90 best 1.78 · Bet365 47% fair 2.12 best 2.02 · Bet365
−0.25 1.67 fair best 1.60 · Bet365 2.49 fair best 2.30 · Bet365
0 1.45 fair best 1.40 · Bet365 3.23 fair best 2.85 · Bet365
+0.25 1.36 fair best 1.35 · Bet365 3.74 fair best 3.10 · Bet365
+0.5 76% fair 1.31 best 1.27 · Bet365 24% fair 4.24 best 3.55 · Bet365

Goals by team

BSC Young Boys goals

Line OverUnder
2.5 43% fair 2.34 best 2.12 · 1xBet 57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Bet365
All lines (3)
Line OverUnder
1.5 71% fair 1.41 best 1.36 · Bet365 29% fair 3.44 best 3.00 · Bet365
2.5 43% fair 2.34 best 2.12 · 1xBet 57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Bet365
3.5 20% fair 4.96 best 4.00 · Bet365 80% fair 1.25 best 1.22 · Bet365

FC ST. Gallen goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 50% fair 1.99 best 1.85 · 1xBet 50% fair 2.01 best 1.86 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 50% fair 1.99 best 1.85 · 1xBet 50% fair 2.01 best 1.86 · 1xBet
2.5 21% fair 4.71 best 3.75 · Bet365 79% fair 1.27 best 1.25 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1X2
44% fair 2.28 best 2.22 · 1xBet 32% fair 3.12 best 2.88 · William Hill 24% fair 4.14 best 3.73 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.75 · William Hill 46% fair 2.18 best 2.00 · 1xBet
1.75 2.15 fair best 1.95 · BetVictor 1.87 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
1.25 1.55 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet 2.81 fair best 2.44 · 1xBet
1.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.75 · William Hill 46% fair 2.18 best 2.00 · 1xBet
1.75 2.15 fair best 1.95 · BetVictor 1.87 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
2 2.81 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet 1.55 fair best 1.50 · BetVictor
2.25 3.39 fair best 2.76 · 1xBet 1.42 fair best 1.39 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–18.4%fair 11.97
  2. 2–18.2%fair 12.21
  3. 2–26.8%fair 14.65
  4. 3–16.6%fair 15.10
  5. 1–25.6%fair 17.77
  6. 3–25.5%fair 18.13

Total goals

  • 03%
  • 14%
  • 216%
  • 319%
  • 4+58%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: BSC Young Boys at home, FC ST. Gallen away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesBSC Young BoysFC ST. Gallen
Goals scored per game 3.30 (2.60) 1.70 (1.70)
Goals conceded per game 1.80 (1.90) 1.90 (1.80)
Over 2.5 goals 90% (80%) 60% (70%)
Both teams scored 80% (90%) 50% (60%)
Clean sheets 20% (10%) 20% (10%)
Failed to score 0% (0%) 30% (30%)
xG for / against per game 2.35 / 1.31 1.73 / 1.31
Corners for / against per game 5.80 / 3.60 6.80 / 3.80
Cards per game 2.30 2.60

Over 2.5 goals: BSC Young Boys in 90% and FC ST. Gallen in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 77% for this match.

From 10 matches for BSC Young Boys and 10 for FC ST. Gallen. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–3 (BSC Young Boys wins – draws – FC ST. Gallen wins).

BSC Young Boys scored 2.8 and conceded 1.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; FC ST. Gallen scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

BSC Young Boys has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on BSC Young Boys here.
FC ST. Gallen has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on FC ST. Gallen here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

BSC Young Boys
W W D D W
avg 2.8 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)
FC ST. Gallen
W W L L W
avg 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
26 Apr 2026 BSC Young Boys 1–2 FC ST. Gallen
11 Feb 2026 FC ST. Gallen 2–1 BSC Young Boys
09 Nov 2025 FC ST. Gallen 1–4 BSC Young Boys
19 Oct 2025 BSC Young Boys 1–2 FC ST. Gallen
29 Mar 2025 BSC Young Boys 1–0 FC ST. Gallen

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.24
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 936da59cd74dcf23

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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