Primera Nacional Sun, 01 Nov 2026 · 22:00 UTC

Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Quilmes

Fair price as of 06:00 UTC — it moves until kick-off
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Most likely: Gimnasia Y Tiro 56%
Over 2.5 goals: 37%
Most likely score 1–0 (16.8%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Gimnasia Y Tiro the most likely outcome at 56% — fair odds of 1.80. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no price here worth taking. Recent form — Gimnasia Y Tiro: LWDLW; Quilmes: WLLDW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here: no bookmaker's odds beat the fair price, so there is no price worth taking.

Betting on Gimnasia Y Tiro anyway? The best price we see is 1.76 at SBO, -2.3% against the fair odds of 1.80. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

The market's two most likely results

1/X Home or draw 82%

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	56%	26%	18%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	44%	30%	26%
Our model	55%	26%	19%

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.35

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.16 / 3.04 / 3.56

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 10 hours ago

Fair odds now 1.23

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.80 / 3.36 / 5.25

Result in our track record Pending

Prices across 9 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.80	3.84	5.42
Pinnacle sharp	1.69	3.51	5.10
1xBet	1.66	3.36	4.86
Bet365	1.67	3.40 ★	5.50 ★
BetVictor	1.67	3.40 ★	5.50 ★
Betano	1.70	3.35	5.20
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	1.67	3.40 ★	5.00
Dafabet	1.72	3.40 ★	5.00
SBO	1.76 ★	2.95	4.18

Show all 9 bookmakers

Marathonbet

1.64

3.36

4.75

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 12:13 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	65% fair 1.53 best 1.50 · Betano	35% fair 2.87 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	37% fair 2.69 best 2.45 · Betano	63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · Bet365
3.5	17% fair 5.97 best 5.25 · BetVictor	83% fair 1.20 best 1.18 · Betano

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	89% fair 1.12 best 1.11 · Betano	11% fair 9.15 best 7.50 · BetVictor
1.5	65% fair 1.53 best 1.50 · Betano	35% fair 2.87 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.75	1.68 fair best 1.61 · BetVictor	2.47 fair best 2.14 · 1xBet
2	1.94 fair best 1.90 · SBO	2.07 fair best 1.88 · Betano
2.25	2.30 fair best 2.10 · BetVictor	1.77 fair best 1.63 · BetVictor
2.5	37% fair 2.69 best 2.45 · Betano	63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · Bet365
3.5	17% fair 5.97 best 5.25 · BetVictor	83% fair 1.20 best 1.18 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
82% fair 1.23 best 1.17 · Betano	74% fair 1.35 best 1.30 · Bet365	44% fair 2.25 best 2.15 · Bet365

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Gimnasia Y Tiro	Quilmes
−1.25	3.15 fair best 2.74 · 1xBet	1.46 fair best 1.45 · Bet365
−1	2.61 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet	1.62 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
−0.75	2.05 fair best 1.88 · Bet365	1.95 fair best 1.92 · Bet365
−0.5	56% fair 1.77 best 1.77 · SBO	44% fair 2.30 best 2.12 · Betano
−0.25	1.52 fair best 1.48 · Bet365	2.92 fair best 2.62 · BetVictor

All lines (11)

Line	Gimnasia Y Tiro	Quilmes
−1.75	5.08 fair best 4.05 · 1xBet	1.25 fair best 1.24 · Bet365
−1.5	27% fair 3.72 best 3.14 · 1xBet	73% fair 1.37 best 1.35 · Bet365
−1.25	3.15 fair best 2.74 · 1xBet	1.46 fair best 1.45 · Bet365
−1	2.61 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet	1.62 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
−0.75	2.05 fair best 1.88 · Bet365	1.95 fair best 1.92 · Bet365
−0.5	56% fair 1.77 best 1.77 · SBO	44% fair 2.30 best 2.12 · Betano
−0.25	1.52 fair best 1.48 · Bet365	2.92 fair best 2.62 · BetVictor
0	1.28 fair best 1.26 · Bet365	4.58 fair best 3.70 · Bet365
+0.25	1.22 fair best 1.20 · Bet365	5.50 fair best 4.40 · Bet365
+0.5	80% fair 1.25 best 1.17 · Bet365	20% fair 5.05 best 5.00 · Bet365
+0.75	1.19 fair best 1.10 · Bet365	6.25 fair best 7.00 · Bet365

Goals by team

Gimnasia Y Tiro goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	43% fair 2.32 best 2.25 · Bet365	57% fair 1.76 best 1.67 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	80% fair 1.25 best 1.28 · Bet365	20% fair 5.01 best 4.15 · Marathonbet
1.5	43% fair 2.32 best 2.25 · Bet365	57% fair 1.76 best 1.67 · Betano

Quilmes goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	51% fair 1.95 best 1.87 · BetVictor	49% fair 2.05 best 1.92 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	51% fair 1.95 best 1.87 · BetVictor	49% fair 2.05 best 1.92 · 1xBet
1.5	20% fair 4.99 best 5.50 · Bet365	80% fair 1.25 best 1.15 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
40% fair 2.53 best 2.45 · BetVictor	46% fair 2.18 best 2.05 · Bet365	14% fair 6.90 best 6.50 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.75 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.84 fair best 1.85 · SBO	2.19 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet

All lines (4)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.75 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.84 fair best 1.85 · SBO	2.19 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet
1	2.55 fair best 2.27 · Betano	1.65 fair best 1.60 · Betano
1.25	3.40 fair best 2.74 · 1xBet	1.42 fair best 1.38 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–016.8%fair 5.94
2–012.1%fair 8.23
1–111.5%fair 8.66
0–011.0%fair 9.09
2–18.7%fair 11.52
0–18.3%fair 11.99

Total goals

011%
125%
227%
320%
4+18%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Gimnasia Y Tiro at home, Quilmes away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Gimnasia Y Tiro	Quilmes
Goals scored per game	1.10 (1.20)	0.50 (0.40)
Goals conceded per game	1.20 (0.30)	0.90 (1.30)
Over 2.5 goals	50% (10%)	20% (30%)
Both teams scored	40% (30%)	10% (20%)
Clean sheets	30% (70%)	30% (30%)
Failed to score	40% (10%)	70% (80%)

Over 2.5 goals: Gimnasia Y Tiro in 50% and Quilmes in 20% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 37% for this match.

From 10 matches for Gimnasia Y Tiro and 10 for Quilmes. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Gimnasia Y Tiro averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Quilmes averaged 0.8 and 0.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Gimnasia Y Tiro

L W D L W

avg 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

Quilmes

W L L D W

avg 0.8 scored · 0.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

13 Jun 2026 Quilmes 1–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/X · Home or draw

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 357372b4a36ff7db

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit