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Orlando City SC 2–2 New York City FC

Final score · Half-time 1–1 · Latest results

When the value flag on New York City FC was recorded live, the sharp market made Orlando City SC the most likely outcome at 42% (fair odds 2.39). On New York City FC, LeoVegas (SE) offered 3.25, +11.7% above its fair price of 2.91 (Strong value). Recent form — Orlando City SC: WDWLL; New York City FC: DLLDL.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 18' 0–1 Alonso Martinez · goal · assist Hannes Wolf · New York City FC
  2. 32' 1–1 Antoine Griezmann · goal · assist Martin Ojeda · Orlando City SC
  3. 38' Vinicius Nogueira · yellow card · Orlando City SC
  4. 44' James Sands · yellow card · New York City FC
  5. 49' 2–1 Martin Ojeda · goal · assist Vinicius Nogueira · Orlando City SC
  6. 63' Iago Teodoro · yellow card · Orlando City SC
  7. 78' Wilder Cartagena · yellow card · Orlando City SC
  8. 81' Talles Magno · missed penalty · New York City FC
  9. 86' Eduard Atuesta · yellow card · Orlando City SC
  10. 90+9' 2–2 Jonathan Shore · goal · assist James Sands · New York City FC

Match stats

Match statsOrlando City SCNew York City FC
Possession %3466
Expected goals (xG)0.861.77
Shots1017
Shots on target57
Corners39
Yellow cards41
Red cards00
Fouls1612
Offsides04
Goalkeeper saves52

What the market said before kick-off

  • Orlando City SC win 40% did not happen
  • Draw 25% happened
  • New York City FC win 36% did not happen
  • Over 2.5 goals 68% happened
  • Both teams score 70% happened
  • Value flag before kick-off: 2 · New York City FC @ 3.25 (LeoVegas (SE)) Lost

CLV +13.2% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Elijio Arreguin · Venue: Exploria Stadium, Orlando

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Orlando City SC 4-2-3-1

  1. 71 M. Crépeau GK
  2. 77 I. Angulo DF
  3. 4 D. Brekalo DF
  4. 57 Iago DF
  5. 27 Vinícius Nogueira DF
  6. 8 B. Ojeda MF
  7. 16 W. Cartagena MF
  8. 20 E. Atuesta MF
  9. 7 A. Griezmann MF
  10. 10 M. Ojeda MF
  11. 22 Justin Ellis FW

Bench: D. Dike, Joran Gerbet, N. Miller, Javier Otero, Marco Pasalic, Bernardo Rhein Goncalves, Harvey Sarajian, Z. Taifi, Adrián Marín

Coach: M. Perelman

New York City FC 4-2-3-1

  1. 49 M. Freese GK
  2. 24 T. Gray DF
  3. 13 Thiago Martins DF
  4. 6 J. Sands DF
  5. 22 K. O'Toole DF
  6. 21 A. O'Neill MF
  7. 8 A. Perea MF
  8. 26 A. Ojeda MF
  9. 7 N. Fernández Mercau MF
  10. 17 H. Wolf MF
  11. 16 A. Martínez FW

Bench: Luighi Hanri, M. Miazga, Raul Gustavo, T. Romero, J. Shore, Talles Magno, B. Traoré, M. Jones, Nico Cavallo

Coach: P. Jansen

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Nico Cavallo — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 41 / 24 / 35% when the line-ups came out, 40 / 25 / 36% at kick-off.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Strong value

2 New York City FC @ 3.25
Bookmaker LeoVegas (SE)
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 3.25 (LeoVegas (SE)) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 2.91
LeoVegas (SE) 3.25
Market Gap +11.7%
Confidence Low
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Value flag result Lost · 2 -1.00u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, New York City FC (2) was priced at 3.25 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.91 — a +11.7% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 76% · as recorded

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded41%24%35%
Other estimates
Our model44%26%29%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.31
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.34 / 3.88 / 2.67
Pick result (single or double chance) Lost · X

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
2 New York City FC · soft 3.25 (LeoVegas (SE)) · fair 2.91 · edge +11.7%
Opening sharp
2.67
At close
2.87 · CLV +13.2%
Result
Lost -1.00u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Orlando City SC averaged 2.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; New York City FC averaged 0.8 and 1.6 over 5.

Since opening around 2.67, the sharp market price on New York City FC has drifted to 2.87 — the market has moved against this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Orlando City SC is averaging 2.8 goals scored over its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Orlando City SC here.
New York City FC is winless in its last 5 matches.
✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on New York City FC at +11.7% above fair.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Orlando City SC
W D W L L
avg 2.8 scored · 2.8 conceded (last 5)
New York City FC
D L L D L
avg 0.8 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
07 Mar 2026 New York City FC 5–0 Orlando City SC
17 Jul 2025 Orlando City SC 1–2 New York City FC
09 Mar 2025 New York City FC 2–1 Orlando City SC

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.25
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) 1.29
Prediction CLV -3.3%
Result Lost
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · New York City FC
Odds when flagged 3.25
Fair odds 2.91
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) 2.87
Value CLV +13.2%
Profit (units) -1.00
Result Lost
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 73f61620336dd483

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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