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MLS predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every MLS fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 17:34 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Wed · 23:30 UTC	Toronto FCDC United	48% 2.04 fair 2.09	25% 4.00 fair 4.02	27% 3.56 fair 3.65	Value expired
Wed · 23:30 UTC	New York City FCAtlanta United FC	56% 1.80 fair 1.78 +0.9%	23% 4.15 fair 4.42	21% 4.30 fair 4.69	Micro-edge
Wed · 23:30 UTC	New England RevolutionNew York Red Bulls	50% 2.00 fair 1.98 +0.8%	22% 4.27 fair 4.56	28% 3.56 fair 3.62	Micro-edge
Wed · 23:30 UTC	Inter MiamiFC Cincinnati	67% 1.55 fair 1.50 +3.4%	18% 5.60 fair 5.68	16% 6.40 fair 6.39	Strong value
Wed · 23:30 UTC	CharlotteCF Montreal	65% 1.56 fair 1.53 +1.9%	18% 5.05 fair 5.46	16% 6.00 fair 6.12	Value flag
Thu · 00:30 UTC	FC DallasColumbus Crew	47% 2.08 fair 2.12	23% 4.10 fair 4.26	29% 3.60 fair 3.40	Value expired
Thu · 00:30 UTC	Chicago FireOrlando City SC	61% 1.66 fair 1.63 +1.5%	19% 4.98 fair 5.35	20% 4.90 fair 4.97	Value flag
Thu · 00:30 UTC	Minnesota United FCSporting Kansas City	69% 1.47 fair 1.44 +1.7%	17% 5.50 fair 5.90	14% 7.00 fair 7.22	Value flag
Thu · 00:30 UTC	Nashville SCPhiladelphia Union	53% 1.93 fair 1.89 +2.2%	23% 4.20 fair 4.34	24% 4.00 fair 4.17	Value flag
Thu · 00:30 UTC	AustinReal Salt Lake	36% 2.70 fair 2.80	24% 3.85 fair 4.09	40% 2.59 fair 2.51 +3.0%	Strong value
Thu · 00:30 UTC	St. Louis CityPortland Timbers	56% 1.80 fair 1.79	21% 4.40 fair 4.68	23% 4.60 fair 4.38	No value
Thu · 02:30 UTC	Seattle SoundersHouston Dynamo	55% 1.88 fair 1.83 +2.9%	23% 4.08 fair 4.35	22% 4.20 fair 4.49	Value flag
Thu · 02:30 UTC	San Jose EarthquakesColorado Rapids	45% 2.25 fair 2.24	25% 3.85 fair 3.94	30% 3.17 fair 3.33	Value expired
Thu · 02:30 UTC	Vancouver WhitecapsSan Diego	68% 1.47 fair 1.46	17% 5.45 fair 5.96	15% 6.50 fair 6.69	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
26 Oct	Los Angeles FC – Los Angeles Galaxy	2–2	21%
25 Oct	San Diego – Seattle Sounders	2–2	24%
25 Oct	Portland Timbers – Charlotte	3–2	51%
25 Oct	Colorado Rapids – Vancouver Whitecaps	1–0	33%
25 Oct	Real Salt Lake – St. Louis City	3–0	50%
25 Oct	Sporting Kansas City – Austin	1–2	30%
25 Oct	Houston Dynamo – Minnesota United FC	0–0	26%
25 Oct	FC Dallas – San Jose Earthquakes	3–0	52%
24 Oct	DC United – FC Cincinnati	0–2	42%
24 Oct	Atlanta United FC – Chicago Fire	2–3	40%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on MLS

Across the matches we priced in MLS, the market's average 1X2 margin is 7.62%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is BetOnline.ag at 3.83%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

BetOnline.ag → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Eastern Conference
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	66	23	+43	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	51	42	+9	55
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	73	53	+20	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	55	46	+9	51
5	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	55	48	+7	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	62	50	+12	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	60	72	-12	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	64	71	-7	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	41	56	-15	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	50	49	+1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	48	59	-11	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	45	43	+2	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	38	55	-17	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	8	6	17	39	54	-15	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	36	62	-26	25
Western Conference
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	63	32	+31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	58	47	+11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	56	44	+12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	52	45	+7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	41	39	+2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	+15	47
7	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	41	39	+2	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	42	41	+1	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	10	11	11	45	54	-9	41
10	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	48	48	+0	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	54	58	-4	37
12	San Diego	31	8	11	12	55	58	-3	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	8	11	12	47	55	-8	35
14	Austin	31	8	10	13	40	57	-17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	37	77	-40	22

Top scorers — 2026 · updated 27 Oct 2026

#	Player	Team	Goals	Assists
1	L. Messi	Inter Miami	25	12
2	P. Musa	FC Dallas	22	5
3	M. Iloski	Philadelphia Union	19	2
4	Rafael Navarro	Colorado Rapids	18	6
4	D. Bouanga	Los Angeles FC	18	5

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

466 matches this season: 3.24 goals per game, 64% over 2.5, 64% both teams scored. xG 3.02 per match (from 428 matches); 10.0 corners and 4.2 cards per match (from 464 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Sporting Kansas City	31	1.19	2.48	81%	65%	3%	1.05 / 2.04	9.8	1.9
Orlando City SC	31	1.94	2.32	77%	71%	13%	1.57 / 2.76	10.9	2.3
Inter Miami	31	2.35	1.71	74%	74%	19%	1.93 / 1.78	8.8	2.8
Chicago Fire	31	1.77	1.48	74%	71%	23%	1.68 / 1.29	9.4	2.3
FC Cincinnati	31	2.06	2.29	71%	74%	10%	1.75 / 1.68	10.2	2.4
Philadelphia Union	31	2.00	1.61	71%	71%	19%	1.90 / 1.39	9.5	2.5
Charlotte	31	1.77	1.55	71%	71%	16%	1.47 / 1.69	10.7	2.2
San Diego	31	1.77	1.87	71%	61%	23%	1.63 / 1.66	9.1	2.2
Portland Timbers	31	1.74	1.87	71%	74%	7%	1.49 / 1.63	10.3	1.7
New England Revolution	31	1.65	1.35	71%	61%	19%	1.53 / 1.39	10.5	1.7
Columbus Crew	31	1.61	1.58	71%	71%	19%	1.40 / 1.21	9.0	1.8
Austin	31	1.29	1.84	71%	71%	16%	1.02 / 2.05	10.4	1.9
FC Dallas	31	1.87	1.52	68%	61%	26%	1.56 / 1.33	10.6	2.2
Real Salt Lake	31	1.55	1.55	68%	68%	13%	1.62 / 1.39	10.6	2.3
Toronto FC	31	1.55	1.90	68%	77%	13%	1.21 / 1.50	10.6	1.9
Los Angeles Galaxy	32	1.41	1.69	66%	75%	16%	1.46 / 1.71	9.2	2.3
Minnesota United FC	31	1.52	1.77	65%	71%	19%	1.65 / 1.55	10.4	1.9
Atlanta United FC	31	1.26	1.74	65%	65%	13%	1.37 / 1.57	10.2	2.3
DC United	31	1.23	1.77	61%	61%	19%	1.36 / 1.62	10.6	2.0
CF Montreal	31	1.16	2.00	61%	52%	13%	1.29 / 1.65	9.8	2.2
Nashville SC	31	2.13	0.74	58%	45%	48%	1.56 / 1.20	9.2	1.7
Vancouver Whitecaps	31	2.03	1.03	58%	48%	39%	2.06 / 0.90	9.4	2.0
St. Louis City	31	1.81	1.42	58%	68%	16%	1.57 / 1.29	10.2	2.1
San Jose Earthquakes	31	1.68	1.45	55%	65%	23%	1.68 / 1.39	10.6	2.3
New York Red Bulls	31	1.32	1.81	55%	58%	16%	1.79 / 1.86	10.6	2.1
New York City FC	31	1.45	1.39	52%	68%	16%	1.35 / 1.44	8.8	1.7
Los Angeles FC	32	1.56	1.09	50%	50%	41%	1.50 / 1.27	11.4	1.7
Colorado Rapids	31	1.35	1.32	45%	45%	36%	1.40 / 1.18	9.1	2.7
Seattle Sounders	31	1.32	1.26	45%	58%	26%	1.40 / 1.43	11.5	1.7
Houston Dynamo	31	1.32	1.26	42%	42%	39%	1.17 / 1.38	9.3	2.2

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Philadelphia Union	1.3	72%	0%
2	Nashville SC	2.3	19.1%	0%
3	St. Louis City	2.5	8.9%	0%
4	FC Dallas	6.2	0%	0%
5	Charlotte	6.7	0%	0%
6	Orlando City SC	7.1	0%	0%
7	New England Revolution	7.2	0%	0%
8	Inter Miami	8.5	0%	0%
9	Houston Dynamo	8.6	0%	0%
10	Vancouver Whitecaps	10.2	0%	0%
11	Chicago Fire	11.1	0%	0%
12	Colorado Rapids	12.2	0%	0%
13	Toronto FC	13.7	0%	0%
14	Los Angeles FC	13.8	0%	0%
15	Portland Timbers	17.1	0%	0%
16	Columbus Crew	17.3	0%	0%
17	Atlanta United FC	17.9	0%	0%
18	Los Angeles Galaxy	18.2	0%	0%
19	Austin	19.3	0%	0.2%
20	Seattle Sounders	19.6	0%	0.3%
21	FC Cincinnati	19.9	0%	0.7%
22	San Diego	20.7	0%	0.8%
23	San Jose Earthquakes	21.8	0%	3%
24	New York City FC	22.2	0%	3.4%
25	DC United	22.3	0%	3.8%
26	New York Red Bulls	25.6	0%	19.9%
27	Minnesota United FC	26.3	0%	32.2%
28	CF Montreal	28.4	0%	77.9%
29	Real Salt Lake	28.4	0%	78.5%
30	Sporting Kansas City	28.5	0%	79.2%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best MLS predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for MLS is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every MLS fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer MLS betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each MLS match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit