Ekstraklasa Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 11:15 UTC

Slask Wroclaw vs Wieczysta Kraków

Fair price as of 16:44 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 10:50 UTC
Check my slip

The sharp market makes Wieczysta Kraków the most likely outcome at 44% — fair odds of 2.27. Unibet (NL) offers 2.40, a market gap of +5.6% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Strong value). Confidence is Medium and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — Slask Wroclaw: LLLLL; Wieczysta Kraków: LLWDL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Strong value

2 Wieczysta Kraków @ 2.40

Bookmaker Unibet (NL)

Price observed Mon, 19 Oct · 16:44 UTC

Flag recorded Sun, 18 Oct · 14:00 UTC @ 2.40 (Unibet (NL)) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 2.27

Unibet (NL) 2.40

Confidence: Medium

Edge at detection +5.6% @ 2.40 · 18 Oct

Edge right now +5.6% @ 2.40 · 36 minutes ago

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Wieczysta Kraków (2) is priced at 2.40 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.27 — a +5.6% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 75%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	31%	25%	44%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	33%	25%	42%
Our model	39%	28%	33%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 36 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.33

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.80 / 3.69 / 2.28

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.91 / 3.85 / 2.40

Market Gap +5.6%

Confidence Medium

Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 26 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	3.22	4.01	2.27
Pinnacle sharp	3.03	3.74	2.18
1xBet	2.91 ★	3.66	2.16
Casumo	2.70	3.60	2.40 ★
Coolbet	2.90	3.85 ★	2.25
Grosvenor	2.70	3.60	2.40 ★
LeoVegas (SE)	2.55	3.35	2.28
Unibet (NL)	2.70	3.60	2.40 ★
Unibet (SE)	2.70	3.60	2.40 ★

Show all 26 bookmakers

888sport	2.90	3.50	2.15
Betclic (FR)	2.67	3.47	2.15
Betfair Sportsbook	2.80	3.80	2.20
Betfred (UK)	2.75	3.60	2.10
Betsson	2.75	3.50	2.25
BoyleSports	2.70	3.50	2.00
LiveScore Bet	2.55	3.35	2.28
Marathonbet	2.89	3.66	2.14
Nordic Bet	2.75	3.50	2.25
PMU (FR)	2.55	3.35	2.28
Paddy Power	2.75	3.60	2.15
Sky Bet	2.63	3.40	2.10
Tipico	2.65	3.60	2.20
Unibet (FR)	2.60	3.35	2.05
Unibet (UK)	2.75	3.60	2.25
Virgin Bet	2.55	3.35	2.28
Winamax (DE)	2.60	3.50	2.15
Winamax (FR)	2.55	3.45	2.10

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 4 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	62% fair 1.60 best 1.57 · Betano	38% fair 2.67 best 2.37 · Betano
3	1.95 fair best 1.88 · Betano	2.06 fair best 1.90 · Betano
3.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.35 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.57 · 1xBet

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	84% fair 1.18 best 1.18 · Betano	16% fair 6.45 best 4.80 · 1xBet
2.5	62% fair 1.60 best 1.57 · Betano	38% fair 2.67 best 2.37 · Betano
2.75	1.74 fair best 1.60 · 1xBet	2.35 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet
3	1.95 fair best 1.88 · Betano	2.06 fair best 1.90 · Betano
3.25	2.22 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet	1.82 fair best 1.70 · 1xBet
3.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.35 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.57 · 1xBet
4.5	21% fair 4.68 best 3.85 · Betano	79% fair 1.27 best 1.23 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
56% fair 1.79 best 1.67 · Betfair Sportsbook	75% fair 1.33 best 1.29 · William Hill	69% fair 1.45 best 1.45 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Slask Wroclaw	Wieczysta Kraków
−0.25	2.89 fair best 2.50 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet
0	2.43 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet	1.70 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.00 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet	2.00 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet
+0.5	57% fair 1.77 best 1.62 · Betano	43% fair 2.31 best 2.25 · Betano
+0.75	1.57 fair best 1.45 · 1xBet	2.74 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Slask Wroclaw	Wieczysta Kraków
−0.75	4.30 fair best 3.34 · 1xBet	1.30 fair best 1.24 · 1xBet
−0.5	30% fair 3.36 —	70% fair 1.42 —
−0.25	2.89 fair best 2.50 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet
0	2.43 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet	1.70 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.00 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet	2.00 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet
+0.5	57% fair 1.77 best 1.62 · Betano	43% fair 2.31 best 2.25 · Betano
+0.75	1.57 fair best 1.45 · 1xBet	2.74 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet
+1	1.39 fair best 1.29 · 1xBet	3.57 fair best 3.04 · 1xBet
+1.25	1.32 fair best 1.24 · 1xBet	4.08 fair best 3.34 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Slask Wroclaw goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	42% fair 2.38 best 2.13 · 1xBet	58% fair 1.72 best 1.70 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	80% fair 1.26 best 1.25 · 1xBet	20% fair 4.89 best 3.84 · Marathonbet
1.5	42% fair 2.38 best 2.13 · 1xBet	58% fair 1.72 best 1.70 · Betano

Wieczysta Kraków goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	51% fair 1.97 best 1.87 · Betano	49% fair 2.03 best 2.00 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	51% fair 1.97 best 1.87 · Betano	49% fair 2.03 best 2.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	23% fair 4.33 best 3.60 · Betano	77% fair 1.30 best 1.28 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
27% fair 3.74 best 3.46 · 1xBet	38% fair 2.63 best 2.45 · William Hill	35% fair 2.83 best 2.77 · Betano

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.00 fair best 1.88 · 1xBet	2.00 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet
1.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.35 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.62 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.38 fair best 1.34 · 1xBet	3.65 fair best 2.93 · 1xBet
1	1.55 fair best 1.60 · Betano	2.80 fair best 2.38 · 1xBet
1.25	2.00 fair best 1.88 · 1xBet	2.00 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet
1.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.35 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.62 · William Hill
1.75	3.14 fair best 2.73 · 1xBet	1.47 fair best 1.38 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–111.2%fair 8.95
1–29.0%fair 11.06
2–17.5%fair 13.37
2–26.6%fair 15.16
0–26.2%fair 16.14
0–16.1%fair 16.39

Total goals

05%
111%
222%
322%
4+40%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Slask Wroclaw at home, Wieczysta Kraków away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Slask Wroclaw	Wieczysta Kraków
Goals scored per game	1.30 (1.40)	1.50 (2.10)
Goals conceded per game	2.00 (1.50)	1.90 (1.80)
Over 2.5 goals	80% (70%)	70% (70%)
Both teams scored	90% (70%)	70% (70%)
Clean sheets	10% (30%)	10% (10%)
Failed to score	10% (20%)	20% (20%)
xG for / against per game	1.26 / 2.09	1.66 / 1.53
Corners for / against per game	3.70 / 5.10	5.50 / 5.40
Cards per game	1.90	1.60

Over 2.5 goals: Slask Wroclaw in 80% and Wieczysta Kraków in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 62% for this match.

From 10 matches for Slask Wroclaw and 10 for Wieczysta Kraków. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value improving

Detected · Sun, 18 Oct · 14:00 UTC

2 Wieczysta Kraków · soft 2.40 (Unibet (NL)) · fair 2.27 · edge +5.6%

Opening sharp

2.28

Current Value improving

soft 2.40 · sharp 2.18 · fair 2.27 · edge +5.6%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–2–0 (Slask Wroclaw wins – draws – Wieczysta Kraków wins).

Slask Wroclaw scored 1.2 and conceded 2.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Wieczysta Kraków scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 in 5.

Since opening around 2.28, the sharp market price on Wieczysta Kraków has shortened to 2.18 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Slask Wroclaw has lost its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Slask Wroclaw here.

Wieczysta Kraków has lost its last 2 matches.

✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on Wieczysta Kraków at +5.6% above fair.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Slask Wroclaw

L L L L L

avg 1.2 scored · 2.6 conceded (last 5)

Wieczysta Kraków

L L W D L

avg 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

30 Nov 2025 Wieczysta Kraków 3–3 Slask Wroclaw

18 Jul 2025 Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Wieczysta Kraków

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Wieczysta Kraków

Odds when flagged 2.40

Fair odds 2.27

Closing odds pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 9a96ce5f2febf690

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit