Eredivisie Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 11:15 UTC

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior

Fair price as of 15:35 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 10:50 UTC
Check my slip

The sharp market makes Fortuna Sittard the most likely outcome at 40% — fair odds of 2.50. Unibet (NL) offers 2.65, a market gap of +5.9% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Strong value). Confidence is Low and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — Fortuna Sittard: DDWLW; Excelsior: LLDLD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Strong value

1 Fortuna Sittard @ 2.65

Bookmaker Unibet (NL)

Price observed Mon, 19 Oct · 15:34 UTC

Flag recorded Sun, 18 Oct · 22:00 UTC @ 2.63 (Unibet (NL)) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 2.50

Unibet (NL) 2.65

Confidence: Low

Edge at detection +3.4% @ 2.63 · 18 Oct

Edge right now +5.9% @ 2.65 · 1 hour ago

The gap has held since we flagged it: both the sharp benchmark and the soft price are re-read continuously, and the edge above is computed on the current market, not on the odds we saw at detection.

Market discrepancy: Fortuna Sittard (1) is priced at 2.65 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.50 — a +5.9% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 74%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	40%	26%	35%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	39%	26%	35%
Our model	46%	27%	28%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.34

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.44 / 3.68 / 2.72

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.65 / 3.80 / 2.75

Market Gap +5.9%

Confidence Low

Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 35 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.50	3.92	2.90
Pinnacle sharp	2.40	3.68	2.76
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	2.40	3.85	2.74
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	2.40	3.85	2.74
1xBet	2.50	3.71	2.69
Casumo	2.55	3.60	2.48
Tipico	2.35	3.60	2.75 ★
Unibet (NL)	2.65 ★	3.80 ★	2.60
Unibet (SE)	2.55	3.60	2.48

Show all 35 bookmakers

888sport	2.40	3.40	2.60
BetVictor	2.40	3.70	2.60
Betano (UK)	2.40	3.70	2.60
Betclic (FR)	2.25	3.50	2.57
Betfair Sportsbook	2.40	3.70	2.55
Betfred (UK)	2.40	3.60	2.50
Betsson	2.40	3.58	2.69
Betway	2.30	3.60	2.62
BoyleSports	2.30	3.50	2.50
Codere (IT)	2.40	3.55	2.60
Coolbet	2.50	3.75	2.60
Coral	2.45	3.70	2.62
Grosvenor	2.50	3.55	2.45
Ladbrokes	2.45	3.60	2.62
LeoVegas (SE)	2.45	3.45	2.38
LiveScore Bet	2.48	3.45	2.40
Marathonbet	2.42	3.60	2.60
Nordic Bet	2.42	3.65	2.72
PMU (FR)	2.45	3.45	2.38
Paddy Power	2.38	3.60	2.50
Sky Bet	2.30	3.30	2.40
Unibet (FR)	2.15	3.40	2.50
Unibet (UK)	2.40	3.60	2.65
Virgin Bet	2.48	3.45	2.40
William Hill	2.40	3.40	2.60
Winamax (DE)	2.25	3.45	2.45
Winamax (FR)	2.20	3.40	2.40

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 12 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	61% fair 1.64 best 1.53 · BetVictor	39% fair 2.57 best 2.50 · Bet365
3	2.00 fair best 1.82 · BetVictor	2.00 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
3.5	39% fair 2.57 best 2.35 · 1xBet	61% fair 1.64 best 1.62 · 1xBet

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	84% fair 1.19 best 1.14 · Bet365	16% fair 6.17 best 5.50 · Bet365
2.5	61% fair 1.64 best 1.53 · BetVictor	39% fair 2.57 best 2.50 · Bet365
2.75	1.78 fair best 1.64 · BetVictor	2.28 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet
3	2.00 fair best 1.82 · BetVictor	2.00 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
3.25	2.28 fair best 2.11 · 1xBet	1.78 fair best 1.76 · 1xBet
3.5	39% fair 2.57 best 2.35 · 1xBet	61% fair 1.64 best 1.62 · 1xBet
4.5	21% fair 4.72 best 4.10 · BetVictor	79% fair 1.27 best 1.25 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
65% fair 1.53 best 1.50 · William Hill	74% fair 1.34 best 1.29 · William Hill	60% fair 1.67 best 1.55 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Fortuna Sittard	Excelsior
−0.5	38% fair 2.60 best 2.42 · Bet365	62% fair 1.62 best 1.52 · Bet365
−0.25	2.24 fair best 2.15 · Bet365	1.81 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
0	1.89 fair best 1.88 · Bet365	2.12 fair best 1.99 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.66 fair best 1.65 · Bet365	2.51 fair best 2.20 · Bet365
+0.5	66% fair 1.52 best 1.52 · Bet365	34% fair 2.91 best 2.50 · BetVictor

All lines (9)

Line	Fortuna Sittard	Excelsior
−1	4.32 fair best 3.70 · Bet365	1.30 fair best 1.26 · Bet365
−0.75	3.16 fair best 2.85 · Bet365	1.46 fair best 1.40 · Bet365
−0.5	38% fair 2.60 best 2.42 · Bet365	62% fair 1.62 best 1.52 · Bet365
−0.25	2.24 fair best 2.15 · Bet365	1.81 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
0	1.89 fair best 1.88 · Bet365	2.12 fair best 1.99 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.66 fair best 1.65 · Bet365	2.51 fair best 2.20 · Bet365
+0.5	66% fair 1.52 best 1.52 · Bet365	34% fair 2.91 best 2.50 · BetVictor
+0.75	1.38 fair best 1.38 · Bet365	3.66 fair best 3.00 · Bet365
+1	1.24 fair best 1.25 · Bet365	5.11 fair best 3.88 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Fortuna Sittard goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	48% fair 2.09 best 1.93 · BetVictor	52% fair 1.92 best 1.86 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	48% fair 2.09 best 1.93 · BetVictor	52% fair 1.92 best 1.86 · 1xBet
2.5	21% fair 4.79 best 4.10 · BetVictor	79% fair 1.26 best 1.25 · Bet365

Excelsior goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	44% fair 2.25 best 2.00 · BetVictor	56% fair 1.80 best 1.80 · Bet365

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	81% fair 1.24 best 1.18 · Bet365	19% fair 5.15 best 4.50 · 1xBet
1.5	44% fair 2.25 best 2.00 · BetVictor	56% fair 1.80 best 1.80 · Bet365
2.5	20% fair 4.91 best 4.33 · BetVictor	80% fair 1.26 best 1.22 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
32% fair 3.10 best 3.00 · Bet365	38% fair 2.60 best 2.50 · Bet365	29% fair 3.42 best 3.13 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.03 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet	1.97 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
1.5	40% fair 2.49 best 2.25 · William Hill	60% fair 1.67 best 1.65 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.39 fair best 1.35 · BetVictor	3.58 fair best 3.04 · 1xBet
1	1.57 fair best 1.50 · BetVictor	2.75 fair best 2.48 · 1xBet
1.25	2.03 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet	1.97 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
1.5	40% fair 2.49 best 2.25 · William Hill	60% fair 1.67 best 1.65 · 1xBet
1.75	3.21 fair best 2.56 · BetVictor	1.45 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–111.6%fair 8.64
2–18.7%fair 11.51
1–28.0%fair 12.47
2–26.6%fair 15.19
1–06.0%fair 16.64
2–05.7%fair 17.43

Total goals

05%
111%
222%
322%
4+39%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Fortuna Sittard at home, Excelsior away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Fortuna Sittard	Excelsior
Goals scored per game	1.60 (1.40)	1.90 (2.10)
Goals conceded per game	1.90 (2.10)	2.00 (1.70)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (70%)	100% (90%)
Both teams scored	70% (90%)	70% (70%)
Clean sheets	10% (0%)	20% (20%)
Failed to score	20% (10%)	10% (10%)
xG for / against per game	0.86 / 2.27	1.35 / 1.70
Corners for / against per game	2.50 / 7.80	3.60 / 5.10
Cards per game	1.50	1.20

Over 2.5 goals: Fortuna Sittard in 60% and Excelsior in 100% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 61% for this match.

From 10 matches for Fortuna Sittard and 10 for Excelsior. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value improving

Detected · Sun, 18 Oct · 22:00 UTC

1 Fortuna Sittard · soft 2.63 (Unibet (NL)) · fair 2.54 · edge +3.4%

Opening sharp

2.44

Current Value improving

soft 2.65 · sharp 2.40 · fair 2.50 · edge +5.9%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–1–2 (Fortuna Sittard wins – draws – Excelsior wins).

Fortuna Sittard scored 1.6 and conceded 2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Excelsior scored 1.2 and conceded 3 in 5.

The sharp market price on Fortuna Sittard has barely moved since opening (2.44 to 2.40) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Excelsior has lost its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Excelsior here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Fortuna Sittard

D D W L W

avg 1.6 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)

Excelsior

L L D L D

avg 1.2 scored · 3 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

20 Feb 2026 Fortuna Sittard 2–1 Excelsior

19 Oct 2025 Excelsior 1–0 Fortuna Sittard

03 Mar 2024 Fortuna Sittard 5–2 Excelsior

26 Aug 2023 Excelsior 2–2 Fortuna Sittard

21 May 2023 Excelsior 3–0 Fortuna Sittard

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.29

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Fortuna Sittard

Odds when flagged 2.65

Fair odds 2.50

Closing odds pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint ecf16b18159da2d8

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit