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3. Liga

Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Köln

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
  • Line-ups usually from
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The sharp market makes Preußen Münster the most likely outcome at 44% — fair odds of 2.27. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Preußen Münster: LLDLD; Fortuna Köln: LLDWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Preußen Münster anyway? The best price we see is 2.16 at BetOnline.ag, -4.7% against the fair odds of 2.27. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 73%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now44%27%29%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded44%27%29%
Our model32%26%43%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.37
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.14 / 3.41 / 3.15
Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.16 / 3.50 / 3.20
Market Gap —
Confidence —
Prediction result Pending

Prices across 18 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 2.273.753.42
Pinnacle sharp 2.16 3.47 3.18
1xBet 2.08 3.32 3.09
888sport 2.10 3.10 3.10
BetOnline.ag 2.16 ★ 3.30 3.15
BetVictor 2.00 3.00 2.75
Betfair Sportsbook 2.05 3.50 ★ 3.00
Paddy Power 2.05 3.50 ★ 3.00
Tipico 2.15 3.50 ★ 3.20 ★
Show all 18 bookmakers
Betano (UK) 2.00 3.00 2.75
Betfred (UK) 2.10 3.30 2.88
Betsson 2.12 3.35 3.10
BoyleSports 2.00 3.25 2.88
Coral 2.10 3.40 2.90
Ladbrokes 2.10 3.40 2.90
Nordic Bet 2.12 3.35 3.10
Sky Bet 2.00 3.25 2.80
Unibet (UK) 2.10 3.40 3.10
Winamax (DE) 2.00 3.30 2.90

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 16 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 78% fair 1.29 best 1.21 · 1xBet 22% fair 4.46 best 3.58 · 1xBet
2.5 52% fair 1.92 best 1.77 · 1xBet 48% fair 2.08 best 1.90 · 1xBet
3.5 30% fair 3.36 best 2.92 · 1xBet 70% fair 1.42 best 1.31 · 1xBet
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
1.5 78% fair 1.29 best 1.21 · 1xBet 22% fair 4.46 best 3.58 · 1xBet
2 1.43 fair best 1.33 · 1xBet 3.31 fair best 2.81 · 1xBet
2.25 1.67 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet 2.48 fair best 2.22 · 1xBet
2.5 52% fair 1.92 best 1.77 · 1xBet 48% fair 2.08 best 1.90 · 1xBet
2.75 2.17 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet 1.86 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet
3 2.59 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet 1.63 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet
3.5 30% fair 3.36 best 2.92 · 1xBet 70% fair 1.42 best 1.31 · 1xBet
4.5 14% fair 7.09 best 5.65 · 1xBet 86% fair 1.16 best 1.08 · 1xBet

Double chance
1X12X2
71% fair 1.41 best 1.33 · William Hill 73% fair 1.36 best 1.30 · William Hill 56% fair 1.79 best 1.65 · William Hill

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Preußen MünsterFortuna Köln
−0.75 2.79 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet 1.56 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet
−0.5 43% fair 2.32 best 1.86 · BetVictor 57% fair 1.76 best 1.51 · BetVictor
−0.25 1.97 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet 2.03 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet
0 1.65 fair best 1.55 · 1xBet 2.54 fair best 2.23 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.48 fair best 1.39 · 1xBet 3.07 fair best 2.59 · 1xBet
All lines (9)
Line Preußen MünsterFortuna Köln
−1.25 4.36 fair best 3.58 · 1xBet 1.30 fair best 1.21 · 1xBet
−1 3.76 fair best 3.14 · 1xBet 1.36 fair best 1.27 · 1xBet
−0.75 2.79 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet 1.56 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet
−0.5 43% fair 2.32 best 1.86 · BetVictor 57% fair 1.76 best 1.51 · BetVictor
−0.25 1.97 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet 2.03 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet
0 1.65 fair best 1.55 · 1xBet 2.54 fair best 2.23 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.48 fair best 1.39 · 1xBet 3.07 fair best 2.59 · 1xBet
+0.5 72% fair 1.38 — 28% fair 3.60 —
+0.75 1.26 fair best 1.19 · 1xBet 4.79 fair best 3.80 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Preußen Münster goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 45% fair 2.22 best 1.95 · 1xBet 55% fair 1.82 best 1.73 · 1xBet

Fortuna Köln goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 33% fair 3.02 best 2.48 · 1xBet 67% fair 1.49 best 1.46 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 73% fair 1.37 best 1.33 · 1xBet 27% fair 3.72 best 3.22 · Marathonbet
1.5 33% fair 3.02 best 2.48 · 1xBet 67% fair 1.49 best 1.46 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1X2
34% fair 2.92 best 2.70 · 1xBet 41% fair 2.41 best 2.25 · William Hill 24% fair 4.11 best 3.80 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 73% fair 1.38 best 1.31 · BetVictor 27% fair 3.65 best 3.10 · William Hill
1 1.83 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet 2.20 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
1.5 33% fair 3.00 best 2.50 · William Hill 67% fair 1.50 best 1.44 · William Hill
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.5 73% fair 1.38 best 1.31 · BetVictor 27% fair 3.65 best 3.10 · William Hill
0.75 1.52 fair best 1.42 · 1xBet 2.91 fair best 2.50 · 1xBet
1 1.83 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet 2.20 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
1.25 2.42 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet 1.71 fair best 1.60 · 1xBet
1.5 33% fair 3.00 best 2.50 · William Hill 67% fair 1.50 best 1.44 · William Hill

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–112.7%fair 7.90
  2. 2–19.2%fair 10.91
  3. 1–09.0%fair 11.07
  4. 2–07.6%fair 13.24
  5. 1–27.2%fair 13.84
  6. 0–07.1%fair 14.05

Total goals

  • 07%
  • 116%
  • 225%
  • 322%
  • 4+30%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Preußen Münster at home, Fortuna Köln away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesPreußen MünsterFortuna Köln
Goals scored per game 1.60 (1.50) 0.80 (1.40)
Goals conceded per game 2.20 (1.90) 1.10 (1.40)
Over 2.5 goals 80% (70%) 30% (60%)
Both teams scored 90% (90%) 40% (60%)
Clean sheets 0% (10%) 20% (0%)
Failed to score 10% (10%) 60% (40%)
Corners for / against per game 3.63 / 5.00 4.14 / 5.00
Cards per game 1.88 2.14

Over 2.5 goals: Preußen Münster in 80% and Fortuna Köln in 30% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 52% for this match.

From 10 matches for Preußen Münster and 10 for Fortuna Köln. xG, corners and cards: 8 and 7 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Preußen Münster scored 1.8 and conceded 2.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Fortuna Köln scored 0.6 and conceded 1.2 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Preußen Münster has lost its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Preußen Münster here.
Fortuna Köln has lost its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Fortuna Köln here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Preußen Münster
L L D L D
avg 1.8 scored · 2.6 conceded (last 5)
Fortuna Köln
L L D W L
avg 0.6 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.27
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 9849c42541c52565

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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