Fair, margin-free probabilities for every 3. Liga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.
Reconstructed from the matches in the TipsAudit dataset — not an official league table. Teams may show a different number of games played, and play-off or play-out stages are not separated. For the official table, use the league's own source.
No standings yet — we have not settled enough matches in this league this season. Standings build automatically as results come in.
| # | Team | Avg. finish | P(title) | P(relegation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hansa Rostock | 4.9 | 18.9% | 0.8% |
| 2 | Alemannia Aachen | 4.9 | 19.3% | 0.8% |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 5.2 | 18.3% | 0.9% |
| 4 | MSV Duisburg | 5.8 | 13.9% | 1% |
| 5 | Verl | 6.7 | 9.7% | 2.4% |
| 6 | Fortuna Köln | 9.3 | 3.2% | 6.1% |
| 7 | Würzburger Kickers | 9.8 | 3% | 8.2% |
| 8 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 9.9 | 2.6% | 8.3% |
| 9 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 1.8% | 11.8% |
| 10 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11.1 | 1.7% | 12.8% |
| 11 | SV Wehen | 11.3 | 1.3% | 13.7% |
| 12 | SV Meppen | 11.4 | 1.3% | 13.3% |
| 13 | FC Saarbrücken | 11.6 | 1.1% | 15.1% |
| 14 | Waldhof Mannheim | 12.2 | 1.1% | 17.3% |
| 15 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 12.5 | 0.9% | 19.3% |
| 16 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 13.4 | 0.7% | 24.5% |
| 17 | Stuttgart II | 14.1 | 0.5% | 30.4% |
| 18 | Hoffenheim II | 14.7 | 0.1% | 35.8% |
| 19 | Havelse | 14.9 | 0.2% | 36.9% |
| 20 | Preußen Münster | 15.3 | 0.1% | 40.6% |
How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.
The sharpest public forecast for 3. Liga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every 3. Liga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.
We publish an audit, not tips. For each 3. Liga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; every prediction is logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.