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3. Liga predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every 3. Liga fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 16:34 UTC and 17:20 UTC · prices older than 6 hours may have moved: re-check at your bookmaker

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 18:00 UTC	FC Viktoria KölnFC Saarbrücken	54% 1.87 fair 1.84	22% 4.30 fair 4.59	24% 3.90 fair 4.20	Not re-checked
Sat · 13:00 UTC	FC Ingolstadt 04Fortuna Düsseldorf	33% 2.82 fair 3.02	27% 3.70 fair 3.77	40% 2.48 fair 2.48	No value
Sat · 13:00 UTC	SV WehenHavelse	70% 1.47 fair 1.42	17% 5.30 fair 6.04	13% 7.00 fair 7.65	Not re-checked
Sat · 13:00 UTC	Hansa RostockSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	59% 1.62 fair 1.69	21% 4.50 fair 4.83	20% 4.90 fair 4.97	No value
Sat · 13:00 UTC	Rot-Weiß EssenAlemannia Aachen	53% 1.91 fair 1.90	23% 4.10 fair 4.39	25% 3.62 fair 4.05	No value
Sat · 13:00 UTC	Waldhof MannheimFortuna Köln	50% 1.92 fair 2.00	24% 3.75 fair 4.11	26% 4.00 fair 3.90	No value
Sat · 15:30 UTC	Preußen MünsterMSV Duisburg	27% 3.40 fair 3.71	24% 3.90 fair 4.19	49% 2.04 fair 2.03	No value
Sun · 12:30 UTC	SV MeppenSSV Jahn Regensburg	41% 2.40 fair 2.46	23% 3.75 fair 4.32	36% 2.70 fair 2.76	No value
Sun · 15:30 UTC	Stuttgart IIVerl	40% 2.40 fair 2.49	22% 4.10 fair 4.49	38% 2.50 fair 2.66	No value
Sun · 18:30 UTC	Würzburger KickersHoffenheim II	32% 3.10 fair 3.13	24% 3.75 fair 4.17	44% 2.15 fair 2.27	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
01 Nov	Alemannia Aachen – Preußen Münster	2–1	56%
01 Nov	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Rot-Weiß Essen	0–1	51%
01 Nov	FC Saarbrücken – Waldhof Mannheim	2–1	46%
31 Oct	Fortuna Köln – Würzburger Kickers	1–2	22%
31 Oct	Hoffenheim II – FC Viktoria Köln	0–1	52%
31 Oct	Havelse – FC Ingolstadt 04	1–1	22%
31 Oct	Verl – SV Wehen	1–4	46%
31 Oct	MSV Duisburg – Stuttgart II	3–3	20%
31 Oct	SSV Jahn Regensburg – Hansa Rostock	2–1	33%
30 Oct	Fortuna Düsseldorf – SV Meppen	0–0	26%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on 3. Liga

Across the matches we priced in 3. Liga, the market's average 1X2 margin is 10.21%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 5.31%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	12	8	2	2	31	15	+16	26
2	MSV Duisburg	12	8	2	2	31	17	+14	26
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	12	7	3	2	20	13	+7	24
4	FC Saarbrücken	12	6	2	4	28	21	+7	20
5	Alemannia Aachen	12	6	2	4	19	18	+1	20
6	SV Wehen	12	5	3	4	23	17	+6	18
7	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	5	3	4	16	17	-1	18
8	Waldhof Mannheim	12	5	1	6	21	19	+2	16
9	Hoffenheim II	12	5	1	6	21	20	+1	16
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	12	4	4	4	12	14	-2	16
11	Hansa Rostock	12	4	4	4	19	22	-3	16
12	SV Meppen	12	4	3	5	16	17	-1	15
13	Stuttgart II	12	4	3	5	21	23	-2	15
14	Preußen Münster	12	4	3	5	20	23	-3	15
15	Würzburger Kickers	12	4	2	6	17	24	-7	14
16	SSV Jahn Regensburg	12	3	4	5	22	21	+1	13
17	Verl	12	3	3	6	17	26	-9	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	12	3	3	6	13	26	-13	12
19	Fortuna Köln	12	2	4	6	9	14	-5	10
20	Havelse	12	2	4	6	17	26	-9	10

Team stats this season

120 matches this season: 3.28 goals per game, 64% over 2.5, 63% both teams scored. xG — per match (from 0 matches); 9.7 corners and 4.8 cards per match (from 94 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	Corners	Cards
MSV Duisburg	12	2.58	1.42	92%	83%	17%	7.4	2.2
Verl	12	1.42	2.17	83%	92%	8%	10.1	1.8
FC Viktoria Köln	12	2.58	1.25	75%	67%	25%	9.2	2.1
FC Saarbrücken	12	2.33	1.75	75%	75%	17%	10.6	2.2
SSV Jahn Regensburg	12	1.83	1.75	75%	67%	17%	8.7	3.0
Stuttgart II	12	1.75	1.92	75%	83%	8%	8.6	2.3
Preußen Münster	12	1.67	1.92	75%	83%	8%	8.4	2.2
Havelse	12	1.42	2.17	75%	83%	0%	8.8	2.9
Würzburger Kickers	12	1.42	2.00	75%	50%	25%	10.6	2.4
Hoffenheim II	12	1.75	1.67	67%	67%	17%	8.8	2.6
Waldhof Mannheim	12	1.75	1.58	67%	58%	17%	10.6	2.3
Alemannia Aachen	12	1.58	1.50	67%	50%	25%	10.4	2.6
SV Wehen	12	1.92	1.42	58%	50%	33%	11.0	2.1
FC Ingolstadt 04	12	1.33	1.42	58%	50%	33%	11.2	2.3
Hansa Rostock	12	1.58	1.83	50%	67%	8%	10.0	3.1
SV Meppen	12	1.33	1.42	50%	42%	42%	9.6	2.8
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	12	1.08	2.17	50%	58%	17%	10.3	2.3
Fortuna Düsseldorf	12	1.00	1.17	50%	58%	25%	10.2	2.2
Rot-Weiß Essen	12	1.67	1.08	33%	42%	50%	9.7	2.4
Fortuna Köln	12	0.75	1.17	33%	42%	17%	9.4	2.0

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	MSV Duisburg	2.6	35.2%	0%
2	Rot-Weiß Essen	3	26.1%	0%
3	FC Viktoria Köln	3.1	25.5%	0%
4	Alemannia Aachen	4.9	7.7%	0.1%
5	Hansa Rostock	7.6	1.5%	1.4%
6	FC Saarbrücken	7.6	1.5%	1.2%
7	FC Ingolstadt 04	8.5	0.9%	2.1%
8	SV Wehen	8.7	0.9%	2.6%
9	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11.5	0.2%	9%
10	SV Meppen	11.8	0.2%	11.5%
11	Würzburger Kickers	12.1	0.1%	12.3%
12	Waldhof Mannheim	12.4	0.1%	14.1%
13	Verl	12.9	0.1%	16.6%
14	Stuttgart II	13	0.1%	17%
15	Hoffenheim II	13.1	0%	17.5%
16	SSV Jahn Regensburg	14.1	0%	25.6%
17	Preußen Münster	14.5	0%	28.1%
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	15.1	0%	34%
19	Fortuna Köln	15.7	0%	39.8%
20	Havelse	17.8	0%	67.1%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best 3. Liga predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for 3. Liga is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every 3. Liga fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer 3. Liga betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each 3. Liga match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit