Eliteserien Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC

Lillestrom vs Brann

Fair price as of 15:35 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 15:35 UTC
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The sharp market makes Lillestrom the most likely outcome at 41% — fair odds of 2.45. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Lillestrom: WDDLL; Brann: LWLWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Lillestrom anyway? The best price we see is 2.40 at Betsson, -2.2% against the fair odds of 2.45. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 75%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	41%	24%	35%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	41%	25%	35%
Our model	29%	28%	43%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 2 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.33

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.35 / 3.77 / 2.71

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.40 / 3.90 / 2.83

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 33 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.45	4.13	2.86
Pinnacle sharp	2.36	3.88	2.73
1xBet	2.35	3.90 ★	2.73
BetOnline.ag	2.34	3.65	2.72
BetVictor	2.25	3.70	2.62
Betano (UK)	2.25	3.70	2.62
Betfair Sportsbook	2.30	3.90 ★	2.63
Betsson	2.40 ★	3.70	2.80
Coolbet	2.38	3.75	2.83 ★

Show all 33 bookmakers

Betclic (FR)	2.15	3.53	2.57
Betfred (UK)	2.25	3.60	2.50
Betway	2.25	3.80	2.60
BoyleSports	2.10	3.60	2.40
Casumo	2.38	3.75	2.60
Codere (IT)	2.25	3.60	2.65
GTbets	2.32	3.85	2.70
Grosvenor	2.32	3.65	2.50
LeoVegas	2.25	3.65	2.60
LeoVegas (SE)	2.38	3.75	2.60
LiveScore Bet	2.28	3.55	2.45
Marathonbet	2.29	3.80	2.66
Nordic Bet	2.38	3.60	2.75
PMU (FR)	2.28	3.55	2.45
Paddy Power	2.20	3.75	2.60
Sky Bet	2.15	3.50	2.50
Tipico	2.20	3.80	2.65
Unibet (FR)	2.05	3.45	2.50
Unibet (NL)	2.38	3.75	2.60
Unibet (SE)	2.38	3.75	2.60
Unibet (UK)	2.30	3.70	2.70
Virgin Bet	2.28	3.55	2.45
William Hill	2.30	3.60	2.62
Winamax (DE)	2.15	3.60	2.50
Winamax (FR)	2.10	3.50	2.45

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 14 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	66% fair 1.52 best 1.40 · BetVictor	34% fair 2.92 best 2.70 · BetVictor
3.25	2.02 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet	1.98 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
3.5	44% fair 2.27 best 2.15 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.79 best 1.72 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	86% fair 1.16 best 1.11 · BetVictor	14% fair 7.29 best 5.65 · 1xBet
2.5	66% fair 1.52 best 1.40 · BetVictor	34% fair 2.92 best 2.70 · BetVictor
2.75	1.62 fair best 1.52 · BetVictor	2.60 fair best 2.34 · 1xBet
3	1.78 fair best 1.65 · BetVictor	2.28 fair best 2.07 · 1xBet
3.25	2.02 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet	1.98 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
3.5	44% fair 2.27 best 2.15 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.79 best 1.72 · 1xBet
3.75	2.60 fair best 2.34 · Marathonbet	1.62 fair best 1.53 · BetVictor
4.5	26% fair 3.92 best 3.60 · BetVictor	74% fair 1.34 best 1.25 · BetVictor
5.5	12% fair 8.24 best 7.00 · BetVictor	88% fair 1.14 best 1.07 · BetVictor

Double chance

1X	12	X2
65% fair 1.54 best 1.46 · 1xBet	76% fair 1.32 best 1.25 · 1xBet	59% fair 1.69 best 1.59 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Lillestrom	Brann
−0.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.24 · BetVictor	60% fair 1.66 best 1.55 · BetVictor
−0.25	2.18 fair best 2.04 · 1xBet	1.85 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet
0	1.86 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet	2.16 fair best 2.05 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.65 fair best 1.54 · BetVictor	2.54 fair best 2.26 · BetVictor
+0.5	66% fair 1.51 best 1.43 · BetVictor	34% fair 2.95 best 2.56 · BetVictor

All lines (9)

Line	Lillestrom	Brann
−1	3.94 fair best 3.28 · 1xBet	1.34 fair best 1.25 · 1xBet
−0.75	3.02 fair best 2.56 · 1xBet	1.49 fair best 1.40 · 1xBet
−0.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.24 · BetVictor	60% fair 1.66 best 1.55 · BetVictor
−0.25	2.18 fair best 2.04 · 1xBet	1.85 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet
0	1.86 fair best 1.79 · 1xBet	2.16 fair best 2.05 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.65 fair best 1.54 · BetVictor	2.54 fair best 2.26 · BetVictor
+0.5	66% fair 1.51 best 1.43 · BetVictor	34% fair 2.95 best 2.56 · BetVictor
+0.75	1.38 fair best 1.28 · 1xBet	3.67 fair best 3.08 · Marathonbet
+1	1.24 fair best 1.16 · 1xBet	5.12 fair best 4.15 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Lillestrom goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	51% fair 1.97 best 1.78 · BetVictor	49% fair 2.03 best 1.96 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	51% fair 1.97 best 1.78 · BetVictor	49% fair 2.03 best 1.96 · 1xBet
2.5	24% fair 4.24 best 3.50 · BetVictor	76% fair 1.31 best 1.25 · 1xBet

Brann goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	48% fair 2.08 best 1.91 · 1xBet	52% fair 1.92 best 1.81 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	48% fair 2.08 best 1.91 · 1xBet	52% fair 1.92 best 1.81 · 1xBet
2.5	20% fair 4.90 best 3.92 · 1xBet	80% fair 1.26 best 1.22 · BetVictor

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
34% fair 2.96 best 2.80 · BetVictor	37% fair 2.72 best 2.50 · William Hill	29% fair 3.40 best 3.13 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.87 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet	2.15 fair best 1.94 · 1xBet
1.5	44% fair 2.28 best 2.11 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.78 best 1.70 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.33 fair best 1.32 · BetVictor	4.04 fair best 3.20 · 1xBet
1	1.47 fair best 1.45 · BetVictor	3.13 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet
1.25	1.87 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet	2.15 fair best 1.94 · 1xBet
1.5	44% fair 2.28 best 2.11 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.78 best 1.70 · William Hill
1.75	2.83 fair best 2.53 · 1xBet	1.55 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–110.5%fair 9.54
2–18.5%fair 11.72
1–27.9%fair 12.72
2–26.9%fair 14.43
2–05.3%fair 19.04
1–05.2%fair 19.38

Total goals

04%
110%
220%
322%
4+44%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Lillestrom at home, Brann away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Lillestrom	Brann
Goals scored per game	1.20 (1.40)	1.30 (1.50)
Goals conceded per game	1.40 (1.70)	1.40 (1.50)
Over 2.5 goals	50% (70%)	60% (70%)
Both teams scored	60% (80%)	60% (70%)
Clean sheets	30% (10%)	20% (20%)
Failed to score	20% (10%)	30% (20%)
xG for / against per game	1.23 / 2.02	2.05 / 1.33
Corners for / against per game	5.70 / 6.00	8.80 / 4.00
Cards per game	1.50	2.10

Over 2.5 goals: Lillestrom in 50% and Brann in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 66% for this match.

From 10 matches for Lillestrom and 10 for Brann. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–1–3 (Lillestrom wins – draws – Brann wins).

Lillestrom scored 1.2 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Brann scored 1 and conceded 1.8 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Lillestrom

W D D L L

avg 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Brann

L W L W L

avg 1 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

05 Sep 2026 Brann 1–2 Lillestrom

09 Nov 2024 Brann 2–1 Lillestrom

12 May 2024 Lillestrom 0–2 Brann

01 Oct 2023 Lillestrom 0–2 Brann

11 Jun 2023 Brann 2–2 Lillestrom

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 87a2e1548aaa3909

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit