Norway

Eliteserien predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Eliteserien fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 16:34 UTC · prices older than 6 hours may have moved: re-check at your bookmaker

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Sat · 15:00 UTC	Kristiansund BKValerenga	29% 3.30 fair 3.39	24% 4.02 fair 4.21	47% 2.10 fair 2.14	Value expired
Sat · 17:00 UTC	RosenborgStart	80% 1.27 fair 1.25	12% 7.20 fair 8.18	8% 13.00 fair 12.98	Not re-checked
Sun · 13:30 UTC	TromsoBodo/Glimt	11% 8.40 fair 8.86	16% 5.52 fair 6.22	73% 1.39 fair 1.38	Not re-checked
Sun · 16:00 UTC	LillestromAalesund	54% 1.83 fair 1.86	21% 4.40 fair 4.77	25% 3.80 fair 3.94	No value
Sun · 16:00 UTC	SandefjordMolde	24% 4.23 fair 4.24	21% 4.50 fair 4.73	55% 1.78 fair 1.81	No value
Sun · 16:00 UTC	VikingKFUM Oslo	80% 1.23 fair 1.25	12% 7.50 fair 8.35	8% 12.50 fair 12.57	Value expired
Sun · 16:00 UTC	Ham-KamSarpsborg 08 FF	31% 3.20 fair 3.26	24% 3.88 fair 4.10	45% 2.17 fair 2.22	No value
Sun · 18:15 UTC	FredrikstadBrann	36% 2.80 fair 2.80	25% 3.85 fair 4.00	39% 2.48 fair 2.55	Value expired

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
01 Nov	Valerenga – Tromso	4–0	42%
01 Nov	KFUM Oslo – Ham-Kam	2–2	28%
01 Nov	Start – Lillestrom	0–1	40%
01 Nov	Sarpsborg 08 FF – Kristiansund BK	2–4	14%
01 Nov	Brann – Molde	3–2	37%
31 Oct	Aalesund – Sandefjord	3–4	29%
31 Oct	Fredrikstad – Rosenborg	0–3	52%
30 Oct	Bodo/Glimt – Viking	3–2	67%
25 Oct	Molde – Fredrikstad	5–1	72%
25 Oct	Start – Sandefjord	1–0	41%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Eliteserien

Across the matches we priced in Eliteserien, the market's average 1X2 margin is 8.49%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Coolbet at 3.26%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Coolbet → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Viking	25	19	2	4	64	26	+38	59
2	Bodo/Glimt	25	19	2	4	61	23	+38	59
3	Molde	25	13	4	8	59	39	+20	43
4	Rosenborg	25	13	4	8	49	31	+18	43
5	Lillestrom	25	13	3	9	36	33	+3	42
6	Tromso	25	11	7	7	43	38	+5	40
7	Brann	25	10	2	13	45	42	+3	32
8	Valerenga	25	9	5	11	43	46	-3	32
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	25	8	7	10	32	39	-7	31
10	KFUM Oslo	25	8	7	10	32	41	-9	31
11	Fredrikstad	25	8	5	12	29	44	-15	29
12	Sandefjord	25	7	6	12	26	34	-8	27
13	Ham-Kam	25	7	6	12	35	53	-18	27
14	Aalesund	25	5	9	11	43	57	-14	24
15	Kristiansund BK	25	6	5	14	29	51	-22	23
16	Start	25	5	4	16	26	55	-29	19

Team stats this season

200 matches this season: 3.26 goals per game, 64% over 2.5, 60% both teams scored. xG 3.15 per match (from 193 matches); 10.9 corners and 3.6 cards per match (from 200 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Brann	25	1.80	1.68	80%	76%	12%	1.75 / 1.74	11.9	1.8
Viking	25	2.56	1.04	76%	68%	28%	2.01 / 1.12	12.1	2.2
Ham-Kam	25	1.40	2.12	76%	60%	16%	1.28 / 1.74	9.4	1.4
Bodo/Glimt	25	2.44	0.92	72%	44%	44%	2.44 / 0.92	9.8	0.6
Molde	25	2.36	1.56	72%	76%	16%	2.15 / 1.32	10.4	2.1
Aalesund	25	1.72	2.28	72%	88%	4%	1.44 / 2.12	13.2	2.2
Rosenborg	25	1.96	1.24	64%	40%	40%	1.63 / 1.32	11.7	1.9
Kristiansund BK	25	1.16	2.04	64%	64%	12%	1.12 / 1.91	10.6	2.2
Valerenga	25	1.72	1.84	60%	56%	16%	1.65 / 1.73	12.6	2.2
KFUM Oslo	25	1.28	1.64	60%	64%	20%	1.18 / 1.80	9.5	1.9
Sarpsborg 08 FF	25	1.28	1.56	60%	64%	20%	1.67 / 1.48	11.3	1.5
Fredrikstad	25	1.16	1.76	56%	64%	12%	1.21 / 1.76	10.1	1.6
Start	25	1.04	2.20	56%	56%	12%	1.38 / 1.76	9.7	1.9
Tromso	25	1.72	1.52	52%	48%	36%	1.53 / 1.29	9.1	1.6
Lillestrom	25	1.44	1.32	52%	44%	32%	1.54 / 1.45	10.8	1.7
Sandefjord	25	1.04	1.36	44%	48%	24%	1.24 / 1.68	11.5	2.2

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Bodo/Glimt	1.2	85.3%	0%
2	Viking	2.2	11.4%	0%
3	Rosenborg	2.6	3.3%	0%
4	Molde	5.3	0%	0%
5	Brann	6.4	0%	0%
6	Lillestrom	6.6	0%	0.1%
7	Fredrikstad	8	0%	0.3%
8	KFUM Oslo	8.1	0%	0.3%
9	Tromso	8.8	0%	1.2%
10	Sarpsborg 08 FF	8.9	0%	1.6%
11	Aalesund	11.8	0%	11.2%
12	Sandefjord	12	0%	18.9%
13	Valerenga	12.3	0%	19.1%
14	Ham-Kam	13.6	0%	40.3%
15	Kristiansund BK	14	0%	50.6%
16	Start	14.3	0%	56.4%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Eliteserien predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Eliteserien is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Eliteserien fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Eliteserien betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Eliteserien match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit