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Jupiler Pro League Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC

Gent vs Anderlecht

Fair price as of 15:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 17:05 UTC
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The sharp market makes Gent the most likely outcome at 37% — fair odds of 2.68. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Gent: WWWDW; Anderlecht: LWWLW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

A gap of +5.6% on X was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen 3 hours ago

Betting on Gent anyway? The best price we see is 2.56 at 1xBet, -4.5% against the fair odds of 2.68. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1/X Home or draw 69%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	37%	32%	31%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	37%	31%	31%
Our model	45%	29%	26%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 3 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.45

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.56 / 3.02 / 3.06

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.56 / 3.35 / 3.04

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 30 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.68	3.17	3.21
Pinnacle sharp	2.57	3.02	3.05
1xBet	2.56 ★	3.06	3.04 ★
BetVictor	2.38	3.20	2.80
Betano (UK)	2.38	3.20	2.80
Betsson	2.45	3.20	2.88
Casumo	2.35	3.35 ★	2.85
Coral	2.50	3.20	2.90
Unibet (SE)	2.35	3.35 ★	2.85

Show all 30 bookmakers

888sport	2.45	2.90	2.90
Betclic (FR)	2.27	3.02	2.72
Betfair Sportsbook	2.38	3.10	2.75
Betfred (UK)	2.40	3.10	2.80
BoyleSports	2.38	3.00	2.80
Grosvenor	2.32	3.25	2.75
Ladbrokes	2.45	3.20	2.90
LeoVegas (SE)	2.28	3.20	2.70
LiveScore Bet	2.28	3.20	2.70
Marathonbet	2.49	2.98	2.96
Nordic Bet	2.45	3.20	2.88
PMU (FR)	2.25	3.15	2.70
Paddy Power	2.38	3.10	2.75
Sky Bet	2.30	3.00	2.63
Tipico	2.45	3.10	2.95
Unibet (FR)	2.15	3.00	2.70
Unibet (NL)	2.32	3.25	2.75
Unibet (UK)	2.45	3.20	2.85
Virgin Bet	2.28	3.20	2.70
William Hill	2.45	2.90	2.90
Winamax (DE)	2.30	3.05	2.65
Winamax (FR)	2.25	3.00	2.60

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 16 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74% fair 1.35 best 1.30 · BetVictor	26% fair 3.90 best 3.25 · BetVictor
2.5	47% fair 2.14 best 2.02 · 1xBet	53% fair 1.88 best 1.81 · 1xBet
3.5	26% fair 3.90 best 3.60 · BetVictor	74% fair 1.35 best 1.27 · 1xBet

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74% fair 1.35 best 1.30 · BetVictor	26% fair 3.90 best 3.25 · BetVictor
2	1.55 fair best 1.50 · BetVictor	2.81 fair best 2.38 · 1xBet
2.25	1.85 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet	2.18 fair best 2.06 · 1xBet
2.5	47% fair 2.14 best 2.02 · 1xBet	53% fair 1.88 best 1.81 · 1xBet
2.75	2.47 fair best 2.19 · Marathonbet	1.68 fair best 1.58 · BetVictor
3	3.07 fair best 2.63 · BetVictor	1.48 fair best 1.41 · BetVictor
3.5	26% fair 3.90 best 3.60 · BetVictor	74% fair 1.35 best 1.27 · 1xBet
4.5	11% fair 8.92 best 8.00 · BetVictor	89% fair 1.13 best 1.07 · 1xBet

Double chance

1X	12	X2
69% fair 1.45 best 1.40 · William Hill	68% fair 1.46 best 1.38 · 1xBet	63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · William Hill

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Gent	Anderlecht
−0.5	37% fair 2.73 best 2.33 · BetVictor	63% fair 1.58 best 1.51 · BetVictor
−0.25	2.28 fair best 2.12 · 1xBet	1.78 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
0	1.83 fair best 1.76 · 1xBet	2.20 fair best 2.08 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.57 fair best 1.50 · BetVictor	2.76 fair best 2.39 · 1xBet
+0.5	70% fair 1.44 best 1.38 · BetVictor	30% fair 3.30 best 2.73 · BetVictor

All lines (9)

Line	Gent	Anderlecht
−1	4.94 fair best 3.80 · 1xBet	1.25 fair best 1.19 · 1xBet
−0.75	3.45 fair best 2.82 · 1xBet	1.41 fair best 1.33 · 1xBet
−0.5	37% fair 2.73 best 2.33 · BetVictor	63% fair 1.58 best 1.51 · BetVictor
−0.25	2.28 fair best 2.12 · 1xBet	1.78 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet
0	1.83 fair best 1.76 · 1xBet	2.20 fair best 2.08 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.57 fair best 1.50 · BetVictor	2.76 fair best 2.39 · 1xBet
+0.5	70% fair 1.44 best 1.38 · BetVictor	30% fair 3.30 best 2.73 · BetVictor
+0.75	1.30 fair best 1.23 · 1xBet	4.34 fair best 3.44 · 1xBet
+1	1.17 fair best 1.11 · 1xBet	6.90 fair best 4.85 · 1xBet

Goals by team

Gent goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	38% fair 2.64 best 2.38 · BetVictor	62% fair 1.61 best 1.56 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	77% fair 1.31 best 1.29 · BetVictor	23% fair 4.26 best 3.40 · BetVictor
1.5	38% fair 2.64 best 2.38 · BetVictor	62% fair 1.61 best 1.56 · 1xBet

Anderlecht goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	33% fair 3.02 best 2.63 · BetVictor	67% fair 1.50 best 1.47 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.37 best 1.33 · 1xBet	27% fair 3.73 best 3.00 · BetVictor
1.5	33% fair 3.02 best 2.63 · BetVictor	67% fair 1.50 best 1.47 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
30% fair 3.30 best 3.15 · 1xBet	44% fair 2.29 best 2.15 · William Hill	26% fair 3.82 best 3.68 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	69% fair 1.44 best 1.44 · 1xBet	31% fair 3.27 best 2.88 · William Hill
1	2.02 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet	1.98 fair best 1.79 · BetVictor
1.5	30% fair 3.33 best 2.80 · William Hill	70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	69% fair 1.44 best 1.44 · 1xBet	31% fair 3.27 best 2.88 · William Hill
0.75	1.62 fair best 1.60 · 1xBet	2.62 fair best 2.21 · BetVictor
1	2.02 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet	1.98 fair best 1.79 · BetVictor
1.25	2.67 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet	1.60 fair best 1.52 · BetVictor
1.5	30% fair 3.33 best 2.80 · William Hill	70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · William Hill

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–115.1%fair 6.62
0–010.3%fair 9.74
2–18.5%fair 11.80
1–08.0%fair 12.43
1–27.7%fair 13.06
0–17.0%fair 14.22

Total goals

010%
115%
228%
322%
4+25%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Gent at home, Anderlecht away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Gent	Anderlecht
Goals scored per game	1.50 (0.90)	1.40 (1.00)
Goals conceded per game	0.50 (0.30)	0.70 (1.30)
Over 2.5 goals	40% (20%)	60% (40%)
Both teams scored	50% (30%)	20% (40%)
Clean sheets	50% (70%)	60% (30%)
Failed to score	10% (40%)	30% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.34 / 0.65	1.31 / 1.05
Corners for / against per game	5.70 / 4.00	5.50 / 3.90
Cards per game	1.70	2.20

Over 2.5 goals: Gent in 40% and Anderlecht in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 47% for this match.

From 10 matches for Gent and 10 for Anderlecht. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–1–3 (Gent wins – draws – Anderlecht wins).

Gent scored 1.8 and conceded 0.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Anderlecht scored 1.4 and conceded 0.8 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Gent has won its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Gent here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Gent

W W W D W

avg 1.8 scored · 0.4 conceded (last 5)

Anderlecht

L W W L W

avg 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

10 May 2026 Gent 1–1 Anderlecht

12 Apr 2026 Anderlecht 3–1 Gent

18 Jan 2026 Gent 4–2 Anderlecht

23 Sep 2025 Anderlecht 1–0 Gent

27 Apr 2025 Gent 0–1 Anderlecht

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/X · Home or draw

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.39

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 67da7809652896bf

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit