Eredivisie Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs Twente

Fair price as of 09:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:35 UTC
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The sharp market makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely outcome at 44% — fair odds of 2.26. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — AZ Alkmaar: DWLWL; Twente: LWDWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

A gap of +2% on 1 was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen 4 hours ago

Betting on AZ Alkmaar anyway? The best price we see is 2.30 at Unibet (NL), +2.0% against the fair odds of 2.26. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 76%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	44%	24%	31%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	44%	24%	31%
Our model	41%	27%	33%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 4 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.32

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.17 / 3.83 / 3.03

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 2.30 / 4.00 / 3.00

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 35 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.26	4.09	3.20
Pinnacle sharp	2.17	3.83	3.03
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	2.18	4.10	2.86
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	2.18	4.10	2.86
1xBet	2.23	3.86	2.99
888sport	2.15	3.60	2.80
Coolbet	2.25	4.00 ★	2.85
Tipico	2.10	3.80	3.00 ★
Unibet (NL)	2.30 ★	3.95	3.00 ★

Show all 35 bookmakers

BetVictor	2.15	3.80	2.90
Betano (UK)	2.15	3.80	2.90
Betclic (FR)	2.00	3.75	2.82
Betfair Sportsbook	2.20	3.90	2.75
Betfred (UK)	2.15	3.75	2.75
Betsson	2.15	3.81	2.93
Betway	2.10	3.75	2.90
BoyleSports	2.00	3.75	2.75
Casumo	2.20	3.70	2.85
Codere (IT)	2.13	3.80	2.85
Coral	2.20	3.90	2.90
Grosvenor	2.18	3.65	2.80
Ladbrokes	2.20	3.80	2.87
LeoVegas (SE)	2.14	3.55	2.75
LiveScore Bet	2.16	3.60	2.75
Marathonbet	2.16	3.74	2.90
Nordic Bet	2.18	3.85	2.95
PMU (FR)	2.14	3.55	2.75
Paddy Power	2.15	3.75	2.62
Sky Bet	2.10	3.50	2.60
Unibet (FR)	1.93	3.60	2.75
Unibet (SE)	2.20	3.70	2.85
Unibet (UK)	2.15	3.80	2.90
Virgin Bet	2.16	3.60	2.75
William Hill	2.15	3.60	2.80
Winamax (DE)	2.00	3.70	2.65
Winamax (FR)	2.00	3.60	2.65

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 10 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · Bet365	34% fair 2.93 best 2.63 · BetVictor
3.25	2.01 fair best 1.94 · 1xBet	1.99 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
3.5	44% fair 2.26 best 2.20 · Bet365	56% fair 1.79 best 1.72 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	87% fair 1.15 best 1.14 · Bet365	13% fair 7.62 best 5.75 · BetVictor
2.5	66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · Bet365	34% fair 2.93 best 2.63 · BetVictor
2.75	1.62 fair best 1.54 · BetVictor	2.62 fair best 2.29 · 1xBet
3	1.77 fair best 1.67 · BetVictor	2.30 fair best 2.04 · 1xBet
3.25	2.01 fair best 1.94 · 1xBet	1.99 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
3.5	44% fair 2.26 best 2.20 · Bet365	56% fair 1.79 best 1.72 · 1xBet
3.75	2.60 fair best 2.34 · Marathonbet	1.63 fair best 1.51 · BetVictor
4.5	26% fair 3.90 best 3.75 · Bet365	74% fair 1.34 best 1.25 · 1xBet
5.5	12% fair 8.21 best 7.50 · BetVictor	88% fair 1.14 best 1.10 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
69% fair 1.45 best 1.40 · 1xBet	76% fair 1.32 best 1.27 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.80 best 1.67 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	AZ Alkmaar	Twente
−0.75	2.70 fair best 2.60 · Bet365	1.59 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−0.5	44% fair 2.29 best 2.25 · Bet365	56% fair 1.78 best 1.62 · Bet365
−0.25	1.99 fair best 2.00 · Bet365	2.01 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet
0	1.70 fair best 1.72 · Bet365	2.44 fair best 2.22 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.54 fair best 1.55 · Bet365	2.87 fair best 2.43 · BetVictor

All lines (10)

Line	AZ Alkmaar	Twente
−1.25	3.92 fair best 3.70 · Bet365	1.34 fair best 1.26 · Bet365
−1	3.45 fair best 3.30 · Bet365	1.41 fair best 1.32 · Bet365
−0.75	2.70 fair best 2.60 · Bet365	1.59 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−0.5	44% fair 2.29 best 2.25 · Bet365	56% fair 1.78 best 1.62 · Bet365
−0.25	1.99 fair best 2.00 · Bet365	2.01 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet
0	1.70 fair best 1.72 · Bet365	2.44 fair best 2.22 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.54 fair best 1.55 · Bet365	2.87 fair best 2.43 · BetVictor
+0.5	70% fair 1.43 best 1.45 · Bet365	30% fair 3.32 best 2.68 · Bet365
+0.75	1.31 fair best 1.32 · Bet365	4.21 fair best 3.30 · Bet365
+1	1.24 fair best 1.20 · Bet365	5.21 fair best 4.45 · 1xBet

Goals by team

AZ Alkmaar goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	55% fair 1.82 best 1.80 · Bet365	45% fair 2.22 best 2.02 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	55% fair 1.82 best 1.80 · Bet365	45% fair 2.22 best 2.02 · 1xBet
2.5	27% fair 3.73 best 3.50 · Bet365	73% fair 1.37 best 1.29 · BetVictor

Twente goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	45% fair 2.22 best 2.00 · 1xBet	55% fair 1.82 best 1.73 · 1xBet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	81% fair 1.23 best 1.20 · Bet365	19% fair 5.30 best 4.33 · Bet365
1.5	45% fair 2.22 best 2.00 · 1xBet	55% fair 1.82 best 1.73 · 1xBet
2.5	20% fair 5.08 best 4.33 · Bet365	80% fair 1.25 best 1.20 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
35% fair 2.86 best 2.75 · Bet365	39% fair 2.58 best 2.60 · William Hill	26% fair 3.81 best 3.40 · BetVictor

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.89 fair best 1.77 · 1xBet	2.12 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet
1.5	43% fair 2.30 best 2.20 · Bet365	57% fair 1.77 best 1.68 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.35 fair best 1.33 · BetVictor	3.83 fair best 3.14 · 1xBet
1	1.50 fair best 1.45 · BetVictor	2.98 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet
1.25	1.89 fair best 1.77 · 1xBet	2.12 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet
1.5	43% fair 2.30 best 2.20 · Bet365	57% fair 1.77 best 1.68 · 1xBet
1.75	2.89 fair best 2.50 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet
2	3.92 fair best 3.38 · 1xBet	1.34 fair best 1.26 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–110.6%fair 9.43
2–18.9%fair 11.24
1–27.4%fair 13.56
2–26.8%fair 14.63
2–05.8%fair 17.28
3–15.5%fair 18.20

Total goals

04%
19%
220%
322%
4+44%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: AZ Alkmaar at home, Twente away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	AZ Alkmaar	Twente
Goals scored per game	2.00 (2.30)	1.70 (1.90)
Goals conceded per game	1.20 (1.10)	1.00 (1.90)
Over 2.5 goals	50% (60%)	50% (80%)
Both teams scored	60% (60%)	60% (90%)
Clean sheets	20% (40%)	30% (0%)
Failed to score	20% (0%)	10% (10%)
xG for / against per game	2.15 / 1.33	2.08 / 0.80
Corners for / against per game	7.30 / 3.90	7.00 / 3.20
Cards per game	1.70	1.50

Over 2.5 goals: AZ Alkmaar in 50% and Twente in 50% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 66% for this match.

From 10 matches for AZ Alkmaar and 10 for Twente. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 3–1–1 (AZ Alkmaar wins – draws – Twente wins).

AZ Alkmaar scored 1 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Twente scored 1.6 and conceded 1 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

AZ Alkmaar

D W L W L

avg 1 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Twente

L W D W W

avg 1.6 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

03 May 2026 AZ Alkmaar 2–2 Twente

30 Nov 2025 Twente 1–0 AZ Alkmaar

25 May 2025 AZ Alkmaar 3–2 Twente

14 May 2025 Twente 2–3 AZ Alkmaar

21 Dec 2024 AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Twente

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 2f21825a5be5bc95

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit