Ecuador LigaPro Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC

Manta FC vs Deportivo Cuenca

No sharp market price is available for this match. Our own model makes Manta FC the most likely outcome at 38%; we make no value call without a sharp benchmark. Recent form — Manta FC: LWWDL; Deportivo Cuenca: WDDDL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No fresh sharp price right now, so we make no value call.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 70%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2

Other estimates

Our model	38%	30%	31%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.44

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) —

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 8 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.47 · Betano	33% fair 3.05 best 2.62 · 1xBet
2	1.86 fair best 1.80 · Betano	2.17 fair best 1.98 · Betano
2.5	38% fair 2.61 best 2.40 · Bet365	62% fair 1.62 best 1.55 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.47 · Betano	33% fair 3.05 best 2.62 · 1xBet
1.75	1.63 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet	2.60 fair best 2.33 · 1xBet
2	1.86 fair best 1.80 · Betano	2.17 fair best 1.98 · Betano
2.25	2.23 fair best 2.03 · 1xBet	1.81 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet
2.5	38% fair 2.61 best 2.40 · Bet365	62% fair 1.62 best 1.55 · 1xBet
3.5	18% fair 5.71 best 4.82 · 1xBet	82% fair 1.21 best 1.20 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Manta FC	Deportivo Cuenca
−0.5	35% fair 2.90 best 2.52 · Betano	65% fair 1.53 best 1.52 · Bet365
−0.25	2.42 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet	1.70 fair best 1.70 · Bet365
0	1.96 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet	2.05 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+0.25	1.65 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet	2.54 fair best 2.42 · Bet365
+0.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.44 · Betano	33% fair 3.03 best 2.85 · Bet365

All lines (9)

Line	Manta FC	Deportivo Cuenca
−1	5.84 fair best 5.24 · 1xBet	1.21 fair best 1.21 · Bet365
−0.75	3.75 fair best 3.19 · 1xBet	1.36 fair best 1.38 · Bet365
−0.5	35% fair 2.90 best 2.52 · Betano	65% fair 1.53 best 1.52 · Bet365
−0.25	2.42 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet	1.70 fair best 1.70 · Bet365
0	1.96 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet	2.05 fair best 2.05 · Bet365
+0.25	1.65 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet	2.54 fair best 2.42 · Bet365
+0.5	67% fair 1.49 best 1.44 · Betano	33% fair 3.03 best 2.85 · Bet365
+0.75	1.33 fair best 1.27 · Bet365	4.01 fair best 3.55 · Bet365
+1	1.19 fair best 1.14 · Bet365	6.39 fair best 5.75 · Bet365

Goals by team

Manta FC goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · 1xBet	30% fair 3.32 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · 1xBet	30% fair 3.32 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	29% fair 3.44 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook	71% fair 1.41 best 1.40 · Bet365

Deportivo Cuenca goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.44 · Bet365	31% fair 3.20 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	69% fair 1.45 best 1.44 · Bet365	31% fair 3.20 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	28% fair 3.53 best 3.25 · Bet365	72% fair 1.40 best 1.40 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
27% fair 3.72 best 3.34 · 1xBet	47% fair 2.11 best 2.00 · William Hill	26% fair 3.87 best 3.75 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.57 · Betano	36% fair 2.80 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.81 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet	2.23 fair best 1.96 · 1xBet

All lines (4)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.57 · Betano	36% fair 2.80 best 2.63 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.81 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet	2.23 fair best 1.96 · 1xBet
1	2.47 fair best 2.37 · Betano	1.68 fair best 1.57 · Betano
1.25	3.29 fair best 2.79 · 1xBet	1.44 fair best 1.34 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Manta FC at home, Deportivo Cuenca away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Manta FC	Deportivo Cuenca
Goals scored per game	1.30 (0.90)	0.70 (0.40)
Goals conceded per game	1.80 (0.80)	1.10 (1.60)
Over 2.5 goals	50% (30%)	30% (30%)
Both teams scored	50% (40%)	50% (30%)
Clean sheets	30% (40%)	30% (20%)
Failed to score	30% (40%)	40% (60%)
xG for / against per game	1.14 / 1.62	1.34 / 1.32
Corners for / against per game	4.10 / 5.00	6.50 / 3.50
Cards per game	2.80	1.70

Over 2.5 goals: Manta FC in 50% and Deportivo Cuenca in 30% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 38% for this match.

From 10 matches for Manta FC and 10 for Deportivo Cuenca. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–3 (Manta FC wins – draws – Deportivo Cuenca wins).

Manta FC scored 1 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Deportivo Cuenca scored 0.8 and conceded 0.8 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Manta FC

L W W D L

avg 1 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Deportivo Cuenca

W D D D L

avg 0.8 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

11 Aug 2026 Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Manta FC

19 Apr 2026 Manta FC 0–1 Deportivo Cuenca

23 Aug 2025 Manta FC 0–1 Deportivo Cuenca

03 May 2025 Deportivo Cuenca 2–0 Manta FC

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction —

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint f797402cfd439624

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit