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Ecuador

Ecuador LigaPro predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Ecuador LigaPro fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

  • Delfin SC – Deportivo Cuenca
  • Emelec – Leones del Norte
  • Macara – Barcelona SC
  • Universidad Catolica – Aucas
  • Independiente del Valle – LDU de Quito
  • Guayaquil City FC – Libertad
  • Orense SC – Tecnico Universitario
  • Mushuc Runa SC – Manta FC
  • Barcelona SC – LDU de Quito
  • Libertad – Emelec

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

DateMatchScoreMarket gave this result
Tecnico Universitario – Mushuc Runa SC 3–0 35%
Aucas – Barcelona SC 0–4 22%
Emelec – Guayaquil City FC 0–1 21%
Leones del Norte – Libertad 4–1 47%
LDU de Quito – Macara 1–2 15%
Orense SC – Delfin SC 4–0 49%
Manta FC – Deportivo Cuenca 0–2 27%
Independiente del Valle – Universidad Catolica 0–0 23%
Mushuc Runa SC – Orense SC 1–1 27%
Barcelona SC – Universidad Catolica 1–1 27%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Ecuador LigaPro

Across the matches we priced in Ecuador LigaPro, the market's average 1X2 margin is 10.42%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Betano at 5.19%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Betano → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of . We read it again after matches finish.

# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
Liga Pro: Championship Group
1 Independiente del Valle 33 25 3 5 75 35 +40 78
2 Macara 34 19 6 9 47 35 +12 63
3 Universidad Catolica 34 14 11 9 53 31 +22 53
4 LDU de Quito 34 15 8 11 37 29 +8 53
5 Aucas 34 14 9 11 36 37 -1 51
6 Barcelona SC 33 12 12 9 38 28 +10 48
Liga Pro: Placement Group
7 Libertad 34 14 8 12 43 39 +4 50
8 Guayaquil City FC 34 12 10 12 38 43 -5 46
9 Leones del Norte 34 11 10 13 37 40 -3 43
10 Emelec 34 11 9 14 31 41 -10 42
Liga Pro: Regular season
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73 33 +40 74
2 Universidad Catolica 30 14 9 7 51 27 +24 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41 33 +8 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33 28 +5 50
5 LDU de Quito 30 13 7 10 31 24 +7 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32 25 +7 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33 34 -1 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31 32 -1 39
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 10 9 11 33 36 -3 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25 34 -9 39
11 Mushuc Runa SC 30 9 11 10 35 38 -3 38
12 Deportivo Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25 37 -12 36
13 Orense SC 30 9 6 15 36 47 -11 33
14 Tecnico Universitario 30 10 2 18 28 42 -14 32
15 Delfin SC 30 7 7 16 19 31 -12 28
16 Manta FC 30 5 6 19 17 42 -25 21
Liga Pro: Relegation Group
11 Deportivo Cuenca 34 12 8 14 30 39 -9 44
12 Mushuc Runa SC 34 9 13 12 39 46 -7 40
13 Orense SC 34 10 8 16 42 50 -8 38
14 Tecnico Universitario 34 11 3 20 33 46 -13 36
15 Delfin SC 34 9 8 17 27 40 -13 35
16 Manta FC 34 7 6 21 22 49 -27 27

Team stats this season

271 matches this season: 2.30 goals per game, 41% over 2.5, 47% both teams scored. xG 2.50 per match (from 97 matches); 9.3 corners and 4.7 cards per match (from 263 matches with statistics).

TeamMPGFGA Over 2.5BTTSClean sheets xG for / against CornersCards
Independiente del Valle 332.181.03 64%52%36% 1.44 / 0.92 9.92.1
Orense SC 341.241.47 59%62%21% 1.29 / 1.36 9.02.6
Macara 341.381.03 50%50%35% 1.18 / 1.48 8.91.9
Libertad 341.261.15 50%47%35% 1.26 / 1.79 9.62.1
Mushuc Runa SC 341.151.35 50%59%32% 1.04 / 1.83 9.52.5
Tecnico Universitario 340.971.35 47%41%21% 1.09 / 1.37 10.33.2
Universidad Catolica 341.560.91 44%53%35% 1.40 / 0.62 9.01.6
Guayaquil City FC 341.121.26 41%50%27% 1.39 / 1.63 7.61.9
Aucas 341.061.09 38%41%41% 1.15 / 0.99 9.32.3
Barcelona SC 331.150.85 36%52%36% 1.41 / 1.16 9.32.3
Leones del Norte 341.061.09 35%47%32% 1.07 / 1.78 9.02.4
LDU de Quito 341.090.85 32%44%32% 1.05 / 0.95 10.62.5
Deportivo Cuenca 340.881.15 29%44%29% 1.18 / 1.31 9.42.0
Delfin SC 340.791.18 29%38%24% 1.21 / 0.97 8.92.9
Manta FC 340.651.44 29%32%21% 1.22 / 1.25 9.62.9
Emelec 340.911.21 27%44%29% 1.57 / 1.19 9.92.3

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

# Team Avg. finish P(title) P(relegation)
1 Independiente del Valle 1.1 88.3% 0%
2 Macara 2.2 11% 0%
3 Aucas 4.4 0.3% 0%
4 Leones del Norte 5 0.2% 0%
5 Universidad Catolica 5.5 0.2% 0%
6 Libertad 6.4 0.1% 0%
7 LDU de Quito 7 0% 0.2%
8 Mushuc Runa SC 8.7 0% 1.4%
9 Barcelona SC 9.1 0% 1.9%
10 Guayaquil City FC 9.7 0% 3.3%
11 Deportivo Cuenca 11.8 0% 16.7%
12 Delfin SC 11.9 0% 12.8%
13 Emelec 12.1 0% 16.9%
14 Tecnico Universitario 12.2 0% 21.6%
15 Orense SC 13.6 0% 41.6%
16 Manta FC 15.3 0% 83.5%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Ecuador LigaPro predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Ecuador LigaPro is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Ecuador LigaPro fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Ecuador LigaPro betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Ecuador LigaPro match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit

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