Independiente del Valle 0–0 Universidad Catolica
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Independiente del Valle was the most likely outcome at 61% (fair odds 1.65). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Independiente del Valle: LWDWL; Universidad Catolica: DLLWW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 26' Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda · yellow card · Universidad Catolica
- 47' Daniel Clavijo · yellow card · Universidad Catolica
- 51' Youri Ochoa · yellow card · Independiente del Valle
- 62' José Fajardo · yellow card · Universidad Catolica
- 72' Jerónimo Cacciabue · yellow card · Universidad Catolica
- 78' Juan Viacava · disallowed by VAR · Independiente del Valle
Match stats
| Match stats | Independiente del Valle | Universidad Catolica |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 46 | 54 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.82 | 0.37 |
| Shots | 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 1 |
| Corners | 8 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 9 | 12 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 1 | 4 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Independiente del Valle win 59% did not happen
- Draw 23% happened
- Universidad Catolica win 18% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 54% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
- 1 A. Quintana GK
- 4 J. Espinoza DF
- 14 M. Carabajal DF
- 15 G. Cortéz DF
- 8 Y. Ochoa DF
- 16 R. Briones MF
- 11 M. Perelló MF
- 18 Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios MF
- 32 J. Méndez MF
- 99 D. Reasco MF
- 23 Juan Viacava FW
Bench: J. Alcívar, C. González, L. Loor, Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez, M. Peralta, H. Quintana, E. Quintero, Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla, R. Schunke, J. Sornoza, Andy René Velasco García, Y. Vásquez
Coach: Joaquín Papa
Regular starters not in the XI
- J. Alcívar — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- R. Schunke — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- L. Loor — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- H. Quintana — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- J. Sornoza — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Universidad Catolica 4-4-2
- 12 J. Lara GK
- 29 G. Anangonó DF
- 33 L. Cangá DF
- 3 Jose García DF
- 30 E. Mejía DF
- 9 A. Londoño MF
- 8 D. Clavijo MF
- 5 J. Cacciabue MF
- 32 M. Alonso MF
- 7 J. Fajardo FW
- 28 M. Díaz FW
Bench: Foad Eid, J. Evans, F. Martínez, C. Medina, Jhostin David Mina Herrera, L. Moreno, Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo, B. Palacios, Alex Andrés Rodríguez Reascos, M. Sevillano, R. Troya, Lucas Cueva Gordillo
Coach: D. Martínez
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 59 / 23 / 18% when the line-ups came out, 59 / 23 / 18% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Independiente del Valle averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Universidad Catolica averaged 1.0 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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