CF Os Belenenses — Arouca
At kick-off Pinnacle, with its margin removed, made Arouca the most likely outcome at 60%: fair odds of 1.67.
After the whistle
CF Os Belenenses 3–4 Arouca half-time 0–1
After extra time. The market prices below are for 90 minutes, so they are checked against the 90-minute score (3–3).
Goals and cards
- 21' I. Barbero · goal · Arouca
- 49' Cesinha · goal · CF Os Belenenses
- 73' Chamito · yellow card · CF Os Belenenses
- 73' Pedro Santos · yellow card · Arouca
- 76' Bruninho · goal · CF Os Belenenses
- 87' B. Mansilla · goal · Arouca
- 90+1' B. Mansilla · goal · Arouca
- 90+4' D. Monteiro · goal · CF Os Belenenses
- 105' F. Mayulu · goal · Arouca
- 116' J. Sanchez · yellow card · Arouca
What the market said before kick-off
- CF Os Belenenses win 20% did not happen
- Draw 20% happened
- Arouca win 60% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Fair price at kick-off (Pinnacle's closing price, margin removed)
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| Fair odds | 4.90 | 5.10 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle odds | 4.23 | 4.39 | 1.59 |
For this competition we show the market's fair price only. These matches are not part of our track record, value flags or experiments, and we do not run our own model on them or compare bookmakers here.
Match context
CF Os Belenenses scored 1 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Arouca scored 1.2 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Why only a fair price here
We price this competition from Pinnacle's odds alone, read from our data provider several times a day: the margin is removed and nothing is added. Our track record, value flags and experiments cover only the leagues where we also log our own predictions and compare bookmakers. Methodology
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included