Primeira Liga Mon, 26 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC

Santa Clara vs Benfica

Fair price as of 14:35 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:20 UTC
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The betting exchange makes Benfica the most likely outcome at 73% — fair odds of 1.37. We judge value only against Pinnacle's price, which we do not have for this match yet, so we make no value call. Recent form — Santa Clara: LWDWW; Benfica: WWLWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No fresh sharp price right now, so we make no value call.

Betting on Benfica anyway? The best price we see is 1.40 at 888sport, +2.0% against the fair odds of 1.37. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

2 Away win 74%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	9%	18%	73%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	8%	18%	74%
Our model	14%	22%	63%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 30 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.35

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) —

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 10.00 / 4.70 / 1.40

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 27 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	10.87	5.58	1.37
888sport	7.50	4.20	1.40 ★
Betway	8.50	4.20	1.38
Casumo	8.00	4.60	1.38
Grosvenor	8.00	4.60	1.38
LiveScore Bet	8.00	4.60	1.38
Marathonbet	8.30	4.25	1.39
Tipico	10.00 ★	4.70 ★	1.32
William Hill	7.50	4.20	1.40 ★

Show all 27 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	9.60	5.10	1.35
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	9.60	5.10	1.35
Smarkets exchange	9.40	4.90	1.38
Betclic (FR)	7.50	4.50	1.31
Betfred (UK)	8.00	4.33	1.36
Betsson	8.80	4.55	1.34
BoyleSports	7.50	4.33	1.36
LeoVegas (SE)	7.50	4.35	1.34
Nordic Bet	8.80	4.55	1.34
PMU (FR)	7.50	4.30	1.32
Paddy Power	8.50	4.50	1.33
Sky Bet	7.50	4.20	1.33
Unibet (FR)	6.90	4.10	1.27
Unibet (NL)	7.50	4.35	1.35
Unibet (SE)	7.50	4.35	1.35
Unibet (UK)	8.00	4.60	1.34
Virgin Bet	8.00	4.60	1.38
Winamax (DE)	6.75	4.40	1.31
Winamax (FR)	6.50	4.30	1.30

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 6 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	77% fair 1.30 best 1.28 · Betano	23% fair 4.33 best 3.75 · Bet365
2.5	51% fair 1.95 best 1.90 · 1xBet	49% fair 2.05 best 1.98 · 1xBet
3.5	27% fair 3.67 best 3.25 · Bet365	73% fair 1.37 best 1.39 · Betano

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	77% fair 1.30 best 1.28 · Betano	23% fair 4.33 best 3.75 · Bet365
2	1.46 fair best 1.42 · Betano	3.19 fair best 2.95 · Betano
2.25	1.70 fair best 1.68 · 1xBet	2.43 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet
2.5	51% fair 1.95 best 1.90 · 1xBet	49% fair 2.05 best 1.98 · 1xBet
2.75	2.23 fair best 2.13 · 1xBet	1.81 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet
3	2.74 fair best 2.50 · Betano	1.58 fair best 1.57 · Betano
3.5	27% fair 3.67 best 3.25 · Bet365	73% fair 1.37 best 1.39 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
27% fair 3.69 best 3.15 · Betano	82% fair 1.22 best 1.23 · 1xBet	91% fair 1.10 best 1.09 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Santa Clara	Benfica
+0.75	3.17 fair best 2.68 · Bet365	1.46 fair best 1.45 · Bet365
+1	2.64 fair best 2.42 · Betano	1.61 fair best 1.60 · Bet365
+1.25	2.08 fair best 1.99 · SBO	1.93 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet
+1.5	56% fair 1.79 best 1.78 · Betano	44% fair 2.26 best 2.23 · 1xBet
+1.75	1.57 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.74 fair best 2.42 · Marathonbet

All lines (9)

Line	Santa Clara	Benfica
+0.25	5.23 fair best 3.90 · Bet365	1.24 fair best 1.24 · Bet365
+0.5	27% fair 3.73 best 3.15 · Betano	73% fair 1.37 best 1.38 · Bet365
+0.75	3.17 fair best 2.68 · Bet365	1.46 fair best 1.45 · Bet365
+1	2.64 fair best 2.42 · Betano	1.61 fair best 1.60 · Bet365
+1.25	2.08 fair best 1.99 · SBO	1.93 fair best 1.97 · 1xBet
+1.5	56% fair 1.79 best 1.78 · Betano	44% fair 2.26 best 2.23 · 1xBet
+1.75	1.57 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.74 fair best 2.42 · Marathonbet
+2	1.37 fair best 1.40 · Betano	3.73 fair best 3.10 · Bet365
+2.25	1.30 fair best 1.30 · Bet365	4.38 fair best 3.45 · Bet365

Goals by team

Santa Clara goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	49% fair 2.03 best 1.93 · Betano	51% fair 1.97 best 1.91 · Betfair Sportsbook

Benfica goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	63% fair 1.59 best 1.55 · 1xBet	37% fair 2.71 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	63% fair 1.59 best 1.55 · 1xBet	37% fair 2.71 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	31% fair 3.20 best 2.75 · 1xBet	69% fair 1.46 best 1.47 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
11% fair 9.43 best 8.00 · William Hill	37% fair 2.68 best 2.40 · Bet365	52% fair 1.92 best 1.92 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.38 best 1.42 · Betano	27% fair 3.65 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
1	1.89 fair best 1.87 · Betano	2.13 fair best 1.98 · SBO
1.5	31% fair 3.25 best 2.82 · Betano	69% fair 1.44 best 1.44 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73% fair 1.38 best 1.42 · Betano	27% fair 3.65 best 3.30 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.53 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet	2.89 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet
1	1.89 fair best 1.87 · Betano	2.13 fair best 1.98 · SBO
1.25	2.53 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet	1.65 fair best 1.59 · 1xBet
1.5	31% fair 3.25 best 2.82 · Betano	69% fair 1.44 best 1.44 · William Hill

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Santa Clara at home, Benfica away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Santa Clara	Benfica
Goals scored per game	1.40 (1.50)	2.70 (2.70)
Goals conceded per game	0.70 (0.70)	0.80 (1.00)
Over 2.5 goals	40% (40%)	80% (80%)
Both teams scored	40% (30%)	60% (60%)
Clean sheets	50% (60%)	40% (40%)
Failed to score	20% (20%)	0% (0%)
xG for / against per game	1.15 / 0.62	2.10 / 0.76
Corners for / against per game	4.22 / 5.56	7.40 / 3.50
Cards per game	2.67	2.50

Over 2.5 goals: Santa Clara in 40% and Benfica in 80% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 51% for this match.

From 10 matches for Santa Clara and 10 for Benfica. xG, corners and cards: 9 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Benchmark: Betfair Exchange (mid price). This league is not priced by our usual sharp bookmaker, so the fair odds come from the exchange — where prices are set by matched money rather than a bookmaker margin. An equally valid sharp reference, disclosed here for transparency.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–4 (Santa Clara wins – draws – Benfica wins).

Santa Clara scored 1.8 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Benfica scored 2.4 and conceded 1 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Benfica has won its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Benfica here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Santa Clara

L W D W W

avg 1.8 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Benfica

W W L W W

avg 2.4 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

13 Feb 2026 Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica

12 Sep 2025 Benfica 1–1 Santa Clara

15 Feb 2025 Santa Clara 0–1 Benfica

14 Sep 2024 Benfica 4–1 Santa Clara

27 May 2023 Benfica 3–0 Santa Clara

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 2 · Away win

Odds recorded for the prediction —

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 70d5f49f50426a90

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit