Universidad de Chile 4–1 Everton de Vina
Final score · Half-time 2–0 · All of yesterday's results
When the micro-edge on Universidad de Chile was recorded live, the sharp market made Universidad de Chile the most likely outcome at 59% (fair odds 1.69). On Universidad de Chile, LeoVegas (SE) offered 1.71 against a fair price of 1.69, a +0.9% gap: too small to call value (Micro-edge). Recent form — Universidad de Chile: WWWLL; Everton de Vina: WWLWW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 12' Joaquin Moya · yellow card · Everton de Vina
- 30' 1–0 Eduardo Vargas · goal · assist Maximiliano Guerrero · Universidad de Chile
- 45+4' 2–0 Eduardo Vargas · goal · assist Maximiliano Guerrero · Universidad de Chile
- 55' Julian Alfaro · yellow card · Everton de Vina
- 57' 3–0 Agustín Arce · goal · assist Maximiliano Guerrero · Universidad de Chile
- 68' Nicolás Fernández · yellow card · Universidad de Chile
- 69' Braian Aaron Martínez · yellow card · Everton de Vina
- 71' Alan Medina · yellow card · Everton de Vina
- 80' 3–1 Cristian Palacios · goal · assist Josué Miguel Nehemías Ovalle Aranda · Everton de Vina
- 81' 4–1 Eduardo Vargas · goal · assist Maximiliano Guerrero · Universidad de Chile
- 86' Lucas Soto · red card · Everton de Vina
Match stats
| Match stats | Universidad de Chile | Everton de Vina |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 48 | 52 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 3.25 | 1.23 |
| Shots | 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 10 | 6 |
| Corners | 6 | 6 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 1 |
| Fouls | 9 | 11 |
| Offsides | 1 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 6 |
Provisional stats from the final whistle; the final numbers replace them within a day.
What the market said before kick-off
- Universidad de Chile win 53% happened
- Draw 24% did not happen
- Everton de Vina win 23% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 59% happened
- Micro-edge flagged before kick-off (under 1.5%, monitor only): 1 · Universidad de Chile @ 1.71 (LeoVegas (SE)) Won
CLV -8.8% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Universidad de Chile 4-2-3-1
- 25 G. Castellón GK
- 5 N. Ramírez DF
- 22 M. Zaldivia DF
- 3 I. Lichnovsky DF
- 14 M. Morales DF
- 20 C. Aránguiz MF
- 15 T. Reinhart MF
- 7 M. Guerrero MF
- 28 A. Arce MF
- 23 I. Vásquez MF
- 11 E. Vargas FW
Bench: M. Díaz, N. Fernández, F. Hormazábal, J. Lucero, I. Poblete, G. Añasgo, O. Rivero, C. Toselli, L. Barrera
Coach: Fernando Gago
Everton de Vina 4-4-1-1
- 1 I. González GK
- 8 L. Soto DF
- 37 V. Vidal DF
- 24 D. Oyarzún DF
- 14 N. Baeza DF
- 9 J. Alfaro MF
- 21 B. Berríos MF
- 7 J. Moya MF
- 11 E. Ramos MF
- 10 A. Medina MF
- 40 N. Montiel FW
Bench: E. Kirkman, H. Magallanes, B. Martínez, Ó. Opazo, J. Ovalle, C. Palacios, V. Vega, R. González, G. CharrupÃ
Coach: W. Ribonetto
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 56 / 23 / 21% when the line-ups came out, 53 / 24 / 23% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off Micro-edge
Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Universidad de Chile (1) was priced at 1.71 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.69 — a +0.9% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.
The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.
A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Value lifecycle Settled
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Match context
Universidad de Chile averaged 3.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Everton de Vina averaged 2.4 and 1.0 over 5.
Since opening around 1.64, the sharp market price on Universidad de Chile has drifted to 1.88 — the market has moved against this outcome.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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