Veikkausliiga Sun, 25 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC

FF Jaro 1–0 PK-35

Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results

In the sharp price we recorded for this match, FF Jaro was the most likely outcome at 55% (fair odds 1.80). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — FF Jaro: DDWDD; PK-35: DWLDL.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

51' Fabian Ostigard Ness · yellow card · FF Jaro
53' Tuukka Andberg · yellow card · PK-35
72' 1–0 Jonathan Lawson · goal · assist Gergő Kocsis · FF Jaro
81' Gergő Kocsis · yellow card · FF Jaro

Match stats

Match stats	FF Jaro	PK-35
Possession %	54	46
Expected goals (xG)	1.21	0.61
Shots	15	8
Shots on target	5	1
Corners	3	4
Yellow cards	2	1
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	12	12
Offsides	3	1
Goalkeeper saves	1	4

What the market said before kick-off

FF Jaro win 56% happened
Draw 26% did not happen
PK-35 win 18% did not happen
Over 2.5 goals 43% did not happen

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Oliver Reitala · Venue: Project Liv Arena, Jakobstad

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

FF Jaro 4-2-3-1

1 S. Vits GK
5 A. Bjonbäck DF
6 J. Brunell DF
4 M. Ogungbaro DF
19 F. Østigård Ness DF
7 J. Skau MF
25 G. Kocsis MF
91 V. Vuorinen MF
26 M. Pedersen MF
21 J. Myrevik MF
23 Jonathan Lawson FW

Bench: Joas Snellman, F. Kass, T. Soderstrom, A. Vidjeskog, K. Hardén, V. Lofs, J. Remesaho, A. Sabriye, J. Vikstrom

Coach: Jens Karlsson

PK-35 4-4-2

1 A. Ramula GK
3 A. Forsström DF
34 T. Andberg DF
2 R. Sipi DF
21 K. Rasanen DF
27 Ayuub Ahmed-Nur MF
8 Joao Costa MF
18 E. Pitkala MF
23 S. Uchiyama MF
7 Pedro Diniz FW
88 J. Pikkuhookana FW

Bench: L. Lokake, E. Kawakita, J. Tapani, M. Tolonen, I. Sadik, O. Salmensuu, Ayuub Abdi, A. Kivela, N. Ndaziramiye

Coach: Tiago Santos

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 54 / 26 / 20% when the line-ups came out, 56 / 26 / 18% at kick-off.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check before kick-off

No value

No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.

The market's most likely result

1 Home win 55% · as recorded

	1	X	2
Sharp, recorded	55%	24%	20%

Other estimates

Our model	28%	25%	47%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.80

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.72 / 3.71 / 4.30

Result in our track record Won · 1

Match context

FF Jaro averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; PK-35 averaged 0.8 and 1.8 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

FF Jaro is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on FF Jaro here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

FF Jaro

D D W D D

avg 1 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

PK-35

D W L D L

avg 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

21 Oct 2026 PK-35 1–1 FF Jaro

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.72

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) 1.74

Prediction CLV -1.1%

Result Won

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 81e4a8eb32637c2a

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit