First Division Ireland Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC

UCD vs Longford Town

Fair price as of 12:00 UTC — it moves until kick-off
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Most likely: UCD 55%
Over 2.5 goals: 60%
Most likely score 1–1 (10.7%, estimate)

The sharp market makes UCD the most likely outcome at 55% — fair odds of 1.81. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — UCD: WWDWL; Longford Town: LWDDW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Not re-checked

Value check

Not re-checked

A gap of +8.5% on 1 was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen 5 hours ago

Betting on UCD anyway? The best price we see is 1.97 at SBO, +8.5% against the fair odds of 1.81.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 77%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	55%	23%	22%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	48%	24%	28%
Our model	41%	27%	32%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.31

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.99 / 3.82 / 3.29

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 5 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.30

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.97 / 3.85 / 3.92

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 10 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.81	4.34	4.57
Pinnacle sharp	1.76	4.03	4.23
1xBet	1.82	3.78	3.90
Bet365	1.73	3.50	3.90
BetVictor	1.65	3.30	3.40
Betano	1.78	3.65	3.90
Dafabet	1.83	3.85 ★	3.80
Marathonbet	1.80	3.78	3.92 ★
SBO	1.97 ★	3.25	3.01

Show all 10 bookmakers

Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	1.80	3.80	3.60
William Hill	1.80	3.60	3.60

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 12:00 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	83% fair 1.21 best 1.20 · Betano	17% fair 5.87 best 4.50 · Bet365
2.5	60% fair 1.67 best 1.60 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.49 best 2.30 · Bet365
3.5	36% fair 2.74 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook	64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Bet365

All lines (10)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	83% fair 1.21 best 1.20 · Betano	17% fair 5.87 best 4.50 · Bet365
2.25	1.50 fair best 1.41 · 1xBet	3.00 fair best 2.65 · 1xBet
2.5	60% fair 1.67 best 1.60 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.49 best 2.30 · Bet365
2.75	1.84 fair best 1.75 · 1xBet	2.20 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet
3	2.11 fair best 2.01 · SBO	1.90 fair best 1.77 · SBO
3.25	2.41 fair best 2.19 · 1xBet	1.71 fair best 1.59 · 1xBet
3.5	36% fair 2.74 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook	64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Bet365
3.75	2.60 fair best 2.84 · 1xBet	1.63 fair best 1.35 · 1xBet
4.5	19% fair 5.22 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook	81% fair 1.24 best 1.20 · Bet365
5.5	12% fair 8.60 best 8.50 · Betfair Sportsbook	88% fair 1.13 best 1.07 · Bet365

Double chance

1X	12	X2
78% fair 1.28 best 1.25 · William Hill	77% fair 1.30 best 1.25 · William Hill	45% fair 2.23 best 1.98 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	UCD	Longford Town
−1.25	2.90 fair best 2.65 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−1	2.49 fair best 2.35 · Bet365	1.67 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
−0.75	2.06 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.94 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
−0.5	55% fair 1.82 best 1.99 · SBO	45% fair 2.21 best 2.02 · Bet365
−0.25	1.60 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet	2.66 fair best 2.35 · Bet365

All lines (11)

Line	UCD	Longford Town
−1.75	4.22 fair best 3.59 · 1xBet	1.31 fair best 1.27 · Bet365
−1.5	30% fair 3.32 best 2.92 · 1xBet	70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · Bet365
−1.25	2.90 fair best 2.65 · 1xBet	1.53 fair best 1.48 · Bet365
−1	2.49 fair best 2.35 · Bet365	1.67 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
−0.75	2.06 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.94 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
−0.5	55% fair 1.82 best 1.99 · SBO	45% fair 2.21 best 2.02 · Bet365
−0.25	1.60 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet	2.66 fair best 2.35 · Bet365
0	1.38 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet	3.60 fair best 3.10 · Bet365
+0.25	1.31 fair best 1.28 · 1xBet	4.22 fair best 3.55 · Bet365
+0.5	78% fair 1.29 best 1.23 · Bet365	22% fair 4.49 best 4.00 · Bet365
+0.75	1.25 fair best 1.16 · Bet365	5.02 fair best 5.25 · Bet365

Goals by team

UCD goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	58% fair 1.72 best 1.67 · Bet365	42% fair 2.39 best 2.12 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	58% fair 1.72 best 1.67 · Bet365	42% fair 2.39 best 2.12 · Marathonbet
2.5	28% fair 3.51 best 3.25 · Bet365	72% fair 1.40 best 1.35 · 1xBet

Longford Town goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	32% fair 3.15 best 2.75 · Bet365	68% fair 1.47 best 1.44 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	72% fair 1.40 best 1.38 · 1xBet	28% fair 3.51 best 3.10 · Marathonbet
1.5	32% fair 3.15 best 2.75 · Bet365	68% fair 1.47 best 1.44 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
42% fair 2.37 best 2.44 · SBO	38% fair 2.65 best 2.40 · William Hill	20% fair 4.96 best 4.42 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.07 fair best 1.94 · SBO	1.93 fair best 1.84 · SBO
1.5	39% fair 2.55 best 2.27 · Betano	61% fair 1.64 best 1.57 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.41 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet	3.42 fair best 2.86 · 1xBet
1	1.61 fair best 1.62 · Betano	2.64 fair best 2.29 · 1xBet
1.25	2.07 fair best 1.94 · SBO	1.93 fair best 1.84 · SBO
1.5	39% fair 2.55 best 2.27 · Betano	61% fair 1.64 best 1.57 · William Hill
1.75	3.26 fair best 2.74 · 1xBet	1.44 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–110.7%fair 9.39
2–19.8%fair 10.16
2–08.5%fair 11.75
1–08.2%fair 12.13
3–16.4%fair 15.70
1–25.9%fair 17.06

Total goals

05%
113%
222%
322%
4+37%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: UCD at home, Longford Town away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	UCD	Longford Town
Goals scored per game	2.30 (2.20)	1.40 (1.80)
Goals conceded per game	1.90 (1.60)	1.40 (2.00)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (60%)	40% (70%)
Both teams scored	80% (70%)	50% (80%)
Clean sheets	20% (20%)	20% (20%)
Failed to score	0% (10%)	30% (0%)

Over 2.5 goals: UCD in 60% and Longford Town in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 60% for this match.

From 10 matches for UCD and 10 for Longford Town. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

UCD averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Longford Town averaged 1.4 and 1.4 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

UCD has won its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on UCD here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

UCD

W W D W L

avg 2.6 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Longford Town

L W D D W

avg 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

24 Oct 2026 Longford Town 0–2 UCD

09 Oct 2026 UCD 1–1 Longford Town

04 Jul 2026 Longford Town 2–1 UCD

01 May 2026 UCD 2–0 Longford Town

07 Mar 2026 Longford Town 0–0 UCD

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.24

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 39c14b53193a5275

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit