EFL Cup Tue, 27 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal

Fair price as of 16:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
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Most likely: Arsenal 93%
Over 2.5 goals: 76%
Most likely score 0–3 (14.1%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Arsenal the most likely outcome at 93% — fair odds of 1.08. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Fleetwood Town: LLWDL; Arsenal: WDWWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 20 Oct: 2 · Arsenal at +0.8%

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +0.8% @ 1.10 · 20 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 26 minutes ago

We flagged +0.8% on 2 on 20 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Arsenal anyway? The best price we see is 1.08 at 1xBet, -0.0% against the fair odds of 1.08. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

2 Away win 93%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	2%	6%	93%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	3%	6%	92%
Our model	10%	19%	71%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.09

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 24.83 / 12.98 / 1.08

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 26 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.08

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 38.00 / 13.50 / 1.08

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 34 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	54.90	17.83	1.08
Pinnacle sharp	33.44	12.48	1.07
1xBet	38.00 ★	13.00	1.08 ★
BetOnline.ag	26.00	11.65	1.08 ★
Betsson	38.00 ★	13.50 ★	1.05
Coolbet	35.00	12.00	1.08 ★
Coral UK-only	23.00	13.00	1.08 ★
Ladbrokes UK-only	23.00	12.00	1.08 ★
Marathonbet	38.00 ★	13.00	1.08 ★
Nordic Bet	38.00 ★	13.50 ★	1.05

Show all 34 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	38.00	15.50	1.09
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	38.00	15.50	1.09
Matchbook exchange	40.00	15.50	1.09
888sport	29.00	10.00	1.06
BetVictor	34.00	13.00	1.06
Betano (UK) UK-only	34.00	13.00	1.06
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	26.00	13.00	1.06
Betway UK-only	29.00	13.00	1.07
BoyleSports UK-only	29.00	12.00	1.07
Casumo UK-only	26.00	10.50	1.07
Grosvenor UK-only	25.00	10.00	1.06
LeoVegas UK-only	26.00	10.00	1.06
LeoVegas (SE)	25.00	10.00	1.06
LiveScore Bet UK-only	23.00	10.00	1.06
PMU (FR)	23.00	9.50	1.04
Paddy Power UK-only	23.00	12.00	1.05
Sky Bet UK-only	17.00	10.00	1.03
Tipico	25.00	13.00	1.05
Unibet (NL)	26.00	10.50	1.07
Unibet (SE)	26.00	10.50	1.07
Unibet (UK) UK-only	34.00	10.50	1.06
Virgin Bet UK-only	23.00	10.00	1.06
William Hill	29.00	11.00	1.07
Winamax (DE)	20.00	11.50	1.04
Winamax (FR)	19.00	10.50	1.04

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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How the game works →

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 16:44 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	89% fair 1.12 best 1.10 · Betano	11% fair 9.27 best 8.00 · Bet365
2.5	76% fair 1.32 best 1.33 · Betano	24% fair 4.16 best 3.70 · Nordic Bet
3.5	55% fair 1.83 best 1.87 · Betfair Sportsbook	45% fair 2.21 best 2.07 · 1xBet

All lines (10)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	89% fair 1.12 best 1.10 · Betano	11% fair 9.27 best 8.00 · Bet365
2.5	76% fair 1.32 best 1.33 · Betano	24% fair 4.16 best 3.70 · Nordic Bet
3	1.49 fair best 1.47 · Betano	3.02 fair best 2.75 · Betano
3.25	1.64 fair best 1.67 · 1xBet	2.56 fair best 2.23 · 1xBet
3.5	55% fair 1.83 best 1.87 · Betfair Sportsbook	45% fair 2.21 best 2.07 · 1xBet
3.75	2.05 fair best 2.01 · Marathonbet	1.96 fair best 1.83 · BetOnline.ag
4	2.40 fair best 2.32 · Betano	1.72 fair best 1.65 · Betano
4.25	2.75 fair best 2.54 · Marathonbet	1.57 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet
4.5	32% fair 3.11 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook	68% fair 1.47 best 1.45 · Betano
5.5	17% fair 6.06 best 5.00 · BetVictor	83% fair 1.20 best 1.20 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
7% fair 13.46 best 8.10 · 1xBet	94% fair 1.06 best 1.05 · 1xBet	98% fair 1.02 best 1.02 · William Hill

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Fleetwood Town	Arsenal
+2.25	2.55 fair best 2.30 · Bet365	1.65 fair best 1.61 · Marathonbet
+2.5	46% fair 2.17 best 2.07 · Betano	54% fair 1.86 best 1.80 · 1xBet
+2.75	1.93 fair best 1.85 · Bet365	2.08 fair best 2.00 · Bet365
+3	1.69 fair best 1.67 · Betano	2.45 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+3.25	1.56 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.80 fair best 2.47 · BetVictor

All lines (9)

Line	Fleetwood Town	Arsenal
+1.5	25% fair 3.94 best 3.55 · BetVictor	75% fair 1.34 best 1.30 · Bet365
+1.75	3.71 fair best 3.20 · BetVictor	1.37 fair best 1.35 · Marathonbet
+2	3.24 fair best 2.87 · Betano	1.45 fair best 1.44 · Betano
+2.25	2.55 fair best 2.30 · Bet365	1.65 fair best 1.61 · Marathonbet
+2.5	46% fair 2.17 best 2.07 · Betano	54% fair 1.86 best 1.80 · 1xBet
+2.75	1.93 fair best 1.85 · Bet365	2.08 fair best 2.00 · Bet365
+3	1.69 fair best 1.67 · Betano	2.45 fair best 2.25 · Bet365
+3.25	1.56 fair best 1.52 · Bet365	2.80 fair best 2.47 · BetVictor
+3.5	69% fair 1.46 best 1.47 · Betano	31% fair 3.18 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook

Goals by team

Fleetwood Town goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	37% fair 2.74 best 2.45 · 1xBet	63% fair 1.58 best 1.57 · Bet365

Arsenal goals

Line	Over	Under
3.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.30 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.66 best 1.67 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
2.5	65% fair 1.54 best 1.50 · 1xBet	35% fair 2.84 best 2.64 · Marathonbet
3.5	40% fair 2.51 best 2.30 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.66 best 1.67 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
5% fair 21.62 best 17.00 · Bet365	23% fair 4.41 best 3.60 · Bet365	73% fair 1.38 best 1.39 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	51% fair 1.95 best 2.01 · 1xBet	49% fair 2.05 best 1.95 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
1	1.31 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet	4.18 fair best 3.15 · Betano
1.25	1.62 fair best 1.70 · 1xBet	2.60 fair best 2.21 · BetVictor
1.5	51% fair 1.95 best 2.01 · 1xBet	49% fair 2.05 best 1.95 · William Hill
1.75	2.33 fair best 2.32 · 1xBet	1.75 fair best 1.63 · BetVictor
2	3.17 fair best 3.08 · 1xBet	1.46 fair best 1.41 · BetVictor

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	58% fair 1.72 best 1.53 · 1xBet	42% fair 2.39 best 2.50 · Betano
9	1.91 fair best 1.70 · 1xBet	2.10 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
9.5	46% fair 2.17 best 1.96 · 1xBet	54% fair 1.85 best 1.93 · Betano

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
8	1.51 fair best 1.36 · 1xBet	2.95 fair best 2.65 · 1xBet
8.5	58% fair 1.72 best 1.53 · 1xBet	42% fair 2.39 best 2.50 · Betano
9	1.91 fair best 1.70 · 1xBet	2.10 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet
9.5	46% fair 2.17 best 1.96 · 1xBet	54% fair 1.85 best 1.93 · Betano
10	2.50 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet	1.67 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet
10.5	36% fair 2.76 best 2.48 · Marathonbet	64% fair 1.57 best 1.55 · Betano
11	2.68 fair best 2.92 · 1xBet	1.59 fair best 1.30 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Fleetwood Town	Arsenal
+4	2.45 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet	1.69 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet
+4.5	47% fair 2.14 best 2.04 · 1xBet	53% fair 1.88 best 1.70 · Betano
+5	1.95 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet	2.05 fair best 1.95 · Bet365
+5.5	56% fair 1.79 best 1.65 · 1xBet	44% fair 2.27 best 2.12 · Marathonbet
+6	1.60 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet	2.66 fair best 2.51 · Marathonbet

All lines (7)

Line	Fleetwood Town	Arsenal
+3.5	38% fair 2.64 best 2.60 · 1xBet	62% fair 1.61 best 1.42 · 1xBet
+4	2.45 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet	1.69 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet
+4.5	47% fair 2.14 best 2.04 · 1xBet	53% fair 1.88 best 1.70 · Betano
+5	1.95 fair best 1.85 · 1xBet	2.05 fair best 1.95 · Bet365
+5.5	56% fair 1.79 best 1.65 · 1xBet	44% fair 2.27 best 2.12 · Marathonbet
+6	1.60 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet	2.66 fair best 2.51 · Marathonbet
+6.5	62% fair 1.61 best 1.41 · 1xBet	38% fair 2.65 best 2.79 · Marathonbet

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74% fair 1.35 best 1.30 · Betano	26% fair 3.86 best 3.30 · Betano
2.5	44% fair 2.25 best 1.83 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.80 best 1.93 · Betano
3.5	26% fair 3.85 best 2.82 · Betano	74% fair 1.35 best 1.40 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	74% fair 1.35 best 1.30 · Betano	26% fair 3.86 best 3.30 · Betano
2	1.59 fair —	2.70 fair —
2.5	44% fair 2.25 best 1.83 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.80 best 1.93 · Betano
3	3.10 fair —	1.48 fair —
3.5	26% fair 3.85 best 2.82 · Betano	74% fair 1.35 best 1.40 · Betano

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

0–314.1%fair 7.07
0–412.7%fair 7.87
0–211.8%fair 8.47
0–59.1%fair 10.96
0–16.6%fair 15.05
1–35.8%fair 17.26

Total goals

02%
17%
215%
320%
4+57%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Fleetwood Town at home, Arsenal away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Fleetwood Town	Arsenal
Goals scored per game	1.20 (1.40)	1.90 (1.50)
Goals conceded per game	1.40 (0.50)	0.90 (0.90)
Over 2.5 goals	40% (20%)	60% (40%)
Both teams scored	60% (40%)	40% (40%)
Clean sheets	30% (60%)	50% (50%)
Failed to score	10% (10%)	10% (10%)
xG for / against per game	1.55 / 1.69	1.85 / 1.08
Corners for / against per game	5.10 / 5.80	5.40 / 3.30
Cards per game	2.50	1.30

Over 2.5 goals: Fleetwood Town in 40% and Arsenal in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 76% for this match.

From 10 matches for Fleetwood Town and 10 for Arsenal. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected · Tue, 20 Oct · 10:00 UTC

2 Arsenal · soft 1.10 (LeoVegas (SE)) · fair 1.09 · edge +0.8%

Opening sharp

1.08

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Fleetwood Town averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Arsenal averaged 2.0 and 0.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Fleetwood Town has lost its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Fleetwood Town here.

Arsenal is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Arsenal here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Fleetwood Town

L L W D L

avg 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Arsenal

W D W W W

avg 2 scored · 0.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Tue, 20 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 2 · Away win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.08

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Arsenal

Odds when flagged 1.10

Fair odds 1.09

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint a4e692c601d77123

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit