DFB Pokal Wed, 28 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

Fair price as of 18:24 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Check my slip

Most likely: VfB Stuttgart 64%
Over 2.5 goals: 67%
Most likely score 1–2 (9.7%, estimate)

The sharp market makes VfB Stuttgart the most likely outcome at 64% — fair odds of 1.56. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — SC Paderborn 07: WDLWL; VfB Stuttgart: LDLWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on VfB Stuttgart anyway? The best price we see is 1.54 at Unibet (UK), -1.0% against the fair odds of 1.56. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

2 Away win 64%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	16%	19%	64%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	16%	19%	64%
Our model	28%	25%	47%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.56

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 5.56 / 4.74 / 1.52

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 31 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.56

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 5.70 / 4.80 / 1.53

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 21 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	6.11	5.17	1.56
Pinnacle sharp	5.56	4.74	1.52
1xBet	5.47	4.45	1.51
888sport	5.00	4.33	1.50
Betclic (FR)	5.00	4.05	1.45
Betfred (UK) UK-only	5.50	4.33	1.44
Tipico	5.70 ★	4.60	1.50
Unibet (UK) UK-only	5.25	4.35	1.54 ★
Winamax (DE)	5.30	4.80 ★	1.49

Show all 21 bookmakers

Betway UK-only	5.25	4.75	1.50
Codere (IT)	5.20	4.40	1.53
Grosvenor UK-only	5.20	4.35	1.47
LeoVegas UK-only	5.25	4.40	1.53
LeoVegas (SE)	5.10	4.25	1.43
LiveScore Bet UK-only	5.10	4.30	1.45
PMU (FR)	5.20	4.35	1.45
Paddy Power UK-only	5.50	4.40	1.44
Unibet (FR)	5.10	4.30	1.43
Unibet (NL)	5.50	4.60	1.50
Unibet (SE)	5.50	4.60	1.50
Virgin Bet UK-only	5.10	4.30	1.45
Winamax (FR)	5.00	4.50	1.45

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

Beat the closing line

Which way will the market move before kick-off? Pick and score your closing line value. Free, no money.

Picking needs a free account: an email address, no card.

How the game works →

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 12:20 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	87% fair 1.15 best 1.16 · Betano	13% fair 7.52 best 6.00 · Bet365
2.5	67% fair 1.50 best 1.50 · Betano	33% fair 3.01 best 2.70 · Betano
3.5	44% fair 2.27 best 2.30 · Betfair Sportsbook	56% fair 1.78 best 1.70 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	87% fair 1.15 best 1.16 · Betano	13% fair 7.52 best 6.00 · Bet365
2.5	67% fair 1.50 best 1.50 · Betano	33% fair 3.01 best 2.70 · Betano
2.75	1.60 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet	2.65 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet
3	1.76 fair best 1.75 · Betano	2.32 fair best 2.15 · Betano
3.25	2.01 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet	1.99 fair best 1.84 · 1xBet
3.5	44% fair 2.27 best 2.30 · Betfair Sportsbook	56% fair 1.78 best 1.70 · Betano
3.75	2.64 fair best 2.36 · 1xBet	1.61 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet
4.5	24% fair 4.15 best 4.10 · Betfair Sportsbook	76% fair 1.32 best 1.30 · Betano
5.5	11% fair 9.34 best 7.50 · Betfair Sportsbook	89% fair 1.12 best 1.12 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
36% fair 2.80 best 2.52 · Betano	81% fair 1.24 best 1.22 · Bet365	84% fair 1.20 best 1.16 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	SC Paderborn 07	VfB Stuttgart
+0.5	35% fair 2.83 best 2.55 · Betano	65% fair 1.55 best 1.55 · Betano
+0.75	2.47 fair best 2.20 · Bet365	1.68 fair best 1.65 · Bet365
+1	2.13 fair best 2.00 · Bet365	1.88 fair best 1.87 · Betano
+1.25	1.86 fair best 1.72 · Bet365	2.17 fair best 2.08 · Bet365
+1.5	60% fair 1.68 best 1.60 · Bet365	40% fair 2.47 best 2.40 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	SC Paderborn 07	VfB Stuttgart
0	5.22 fair best 4.40 · Bet365	1.24 fair best 1.20 · Bet365
+0.25	3.56 fair best 3.00 · Bet365	1.39 fair best 1.38 · Bet365
+0.5	35% fair 2.83 best 2.55 · Betano	65% fair 1.55 best 1.55 · Betano
+0.75	2.47 fair best 2.20 · Bet365	1.68 fair best 1.65 · Bet365
+1	2.13 fair best 2.00 · Bet365	1.88 fair best 1.87 · Betano
+1.25	1.86 fair best 1.72 · Bet365	2.17 fair best 2.08 · Bet365
+1.5	60% fair 1.68 best 1.60 · Bet365	40% fair 2.47 best 2.40 · Betano
+1.75	1.51 fair best 1.45 · Bet365	2.96 fair best 2.68 · Bet365
+2	1.35 fair best 1.30 · Bet365	3.89 fair best 3.45 · Bet365

Goals by team

SC Paderborn 07 goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	68% fair 1.46 best 1.44 · Bet365	32% fair 3.15 best 2.76 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	68% fair 1.46 best 1.44 · Bet365	32% fair 3.15 best 2.76 · 1xBet
1.5	29% fair 3.45 best 3.25 · Bet365	71% fair 1.41 best 1.38 · Betano

VfB Stuttgart goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	39% fair 2.56 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook	61% fair 1.64 best 1.59 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	68% fair 1.46 best 1.44 · Bet365	32% fair 3.15 best 2.75 · 1xBet
2.5	39% fair 2.56 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook	61% fair 1.64 best 1.59 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
16% fair 6.11 best 5.50 · Bet365	33% fair 2.99 best 2.62 · William Hill	50% fair 1.99 best 2.05 · Betano

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	46% fair 2.18 best 2.22 · Betano	54% fair 1.85 best 1.73 · William Hill

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.31 fair best 1.32 · BetVictor	4.19 fair best 3.20 · 1xBet
1	1.42 fair best 1.52 · Betano	3.39 fair best 2.64 · 1xBet
1.25	1.80 fair best 1.80 · SBO	2.26 fair best 1.96 · SBO
1.5	46% fair 2.18 best 2.22 · Betano	54% fair 1.85 best 1.73 · William Hill
1.75	2.70 fair best 2.44 · 1xBet	1.59 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
2	3.96 fair best 3.26 · 1xBet	1.34 fair best 1.28 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–29.7%fair 10.35
0–28.7%fair 11.49
1–18.6%fair 11.59
1–37.5%fair 13.32
0–17.1%fair 14.04
0–36.8%fair 14.77

Total goals

04%
110%
219%
322%
4+45%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: SC Paderborn 07 at home, VfB Stuttgart away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	SC Paderborn 07	VfB Stuttgart
Goals scored per game	1.10 (1.60)	1.70 (1.80)
Goals conceded per game	1.20 (1.50)	1.50 (2.00)
Over 2.5 goals	40% (50%)	60% (80%)
Both teams scored	40% (70%)	60% (50%)
Clean sheets	30% (10%)	20% (30%)
Failed to score	50% (20%)	20% (20%)
xG for / against per game	0.97 / 1.65	1.87 / 2.09
Corners for / against per game	6.10 / 5.40	6.70 / 5.10
Cards per game	1.90	1.20

Over 2.5 goals: SC Paderborn 07 in 40% and VfB Stuttgart in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 67% for this match.

From 10 matches for SC Paderborn 07 and 10 for VfB Stuttgart. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

SC Paderborn 07 averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; VfB Stuttgart averaged 1.6 and 1.0 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

SC Paderborn 07

W D L W L

avg 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

VfB Stuttgart

L D L W W

avg 1.6 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

10 Oct 2026 SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart

31 Jan 2023 SC Paderborn 07 1–2 VfB Stuttgart

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 2 · Away win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.52

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 41097b03ac73513e

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit