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EFL Cup

Liverpool vs Chelsea

The sharp market makes Liverpool the most likely outcome at 45% — fair odds of 2.21. 1xBet offers 2.31, a market gap of +4.5% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Strong value). Confidence is Medium and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — Liverpool: WWWWL; Chelsea: LWWLD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Strong value

1 Liverpool @ 2.31
Bookmaker 1xBet
Price observed
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.
Fair price 2.21
1xBet 2.31
Market Gap +4.5%
Confidence Medium
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Market discrepancy: Liverpool (1) is priced at 2.31 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.21 — a +4.5% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 76%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now45%24%31%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded34%25%40%
Our model51%21%27%
Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.34
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.79 / 3.69 / 2.38

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick now 1.31
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.31 / 4.00 / 3.08
Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 34 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 2.214.183.24
Pinnacle sharp 2.13 3.91 3.07
1xBet 2.21 ★ 3.92 3.11
888sport 2.10 3.50 2.90
Coolbet 2.20 4.00 ★ 2.95
Coral UK-only 2.15 4.00 ★ 2.90
Marathonbet 2.19 3.92 3.12 ★
Tipico 2.05 4.00 ★ 3.00
Unibet (UK) UK-only 2.08 4.00 ★ 3.00
Show all 34 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 2.20 4.20 3.15
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 2.20 4.20 3.15
Matchbook exchange 2.22 4.20 3.15
BetOnline.ag 2.12 3.95 3.08
BetVictor 2.15 3.90 3.00
Betano (UK) UK-only 2.15 3.90 3.00
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 2.10 3.90 2.90
Betsson 2.12 3.85 3.05
Betway UK-only 2.10 3.80 3.00
BoyleSports UK-only 2.15 3.80 2.88
Casumo UK-only 2.16 3.85 2.85
Grosvenor UK-only 2.14 3.75 2.80
Ladbrokes UK-only 2.15 3.90 2.90
LeoVegas UK-only 2.10 3.85 2.90
LeoVegas (SE) 2.14 3.75 2.80
LiveScore Bet UK-only 2.12 3.70 2.75
Nordic Bet 2.12 3.85 3.05
PMU (FR) 2.07 3.60 2.70
Paddy Power UK-only 2.05 3.80 2.88
Sky Bet UK-only 2.00 3.60 2.80
Unibet (NL) 2.16 3.85 2.85
Unibet (SE) 2.16 3.85 2.85
Virgin Bet UK-only 2.12 3.70 2.75
William Hill 2.10 3.60 2.90
Winamax (DE) 2.10 3.80 2.70
Winamax (FR) 2.10 3.80 2.70

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 86% fair 1.16 best 1.16 · Betano 14% fair 7.23 best 6.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · Betano 34% fair 2.93 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.5 43% fair 2.31 best 2.18 · 1xBet 57% fair 1.77 best 1.73 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (9)
Line OverUnder
1.5 86% fair 1.16 best 1.16 · Betano 14% fair 7.23 best 6.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 66% fair 1.52 best 1.50 · Betano 34% fair 2.93 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75 1.62 fair best 1.56 · 1xBet 2.60 fair best 2.37 · 1xBet
3 1.79 fair best 1.72 · Betano 2.27 fair best 2.18 · Betano
3.25 2.05 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet 1.95 fair best 1.87 · 1xBet
3.5 43% fair 2.31 best 2.18 · 1xBet 57% fair 1.77 best 1.73 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.75 2.69 fair best 2.46 · Marathonbet 1.59 fair best 1.53 · 1xBet
4.5 23% fair 4.30 best 3.55 · Betano 77% fair 1.30 best 1.30 · Betano
5.5 10% fair 9.57 best 7.00 · BetVictor 90% fair 1.12 best 1.13 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
69% fair 1.45 best 1.44 · Betano 76% fair 1.31 best 1.29 · 1xBet 55% fair 1.83 best 1.70 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line LiverpoolChelsea
−0.75 2.77 fair best 2.54 · Marathonbet 1.57 fair best 1.50 · Bet365
−0.5 43% fair 2.34 best 2.20 · Bet365 57% fair 1.75 best 1.72 · Betano
−0.25 2.03 fair best 1.98 · Bet365 1.97 fair best 1.88 · Bet365
0 1.74 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet 2.36 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.56 fair best 1.53 · 1xBet 2.77 fair best 2.52 · 1xBet
All lines (11)
Line LiverpoolChelsea
−1.25 4.11 fair best 3.55 · BetVictor 1.32 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−1 3.60 fair best 3.20 · BetVictor 1.38 fair best 1.37 · Betano
−0.75 2.77 fair best 2.54 · Marathonbet 1.57 fair best 1.50 · Bet365
−0.5 43% fair 2.34 best 2.20 · Bet365 57% fair 1.75 best 1.72 · Betano
−0.25 2.03 fair best 1.98 · Bet365 1.97 fair best 1.88 · Bet365
0 1.74 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet 2.36 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.56 fair best 1.53 · 1xBet 2.77 fair best 2.52 · 1xBet
+0.5 69% fair 1.45 best 1.45 · Betano 31% fair 3.21 best 2.87 · Betano
+0.75 1.33 fair best 1.30 · Bet365 4.03 fair best 3.45 · Bet365
+1 1.24 fair best 1.19 · Bet365 5.09 fair best 4.70 · 1xBet
+1.25 1.29 fair best 1.14 · BetVictor 4.46 fair best 4.70 · BetVictor

Goals by team

Liverpool goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.75 · 1xBet 46% fair 2.18 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.75 · 1xBet 46% fair 2.18 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 25% fair 3.94 best 3.50 · Bet365 75% fair 1.34 best 1.33 · 1xBet

Chelsea goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 45% fair 2.20 best 2.00 · 1xBet 55% fair 1.83 best 1.82 · 1xBet
All lines (3)
Line OverUnder
0.5 81% fair 1.24 best 1.23 · Betano 19% fair 5.19 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5 45% fair 2.20 best 2.00 · 1xBet 55% fair 1.83 best 1.82 · 1xBet
2.5 19% fair 5.13 best 4.33 · BetVictor 81% fair 1.24 best 1.23 · 1xBet

First half

First-half result

1X2
35% fair 2.90 best 2.75 · BetVictor 37% fair 2.73 best 2.50 · William Hill 29% fair 3.46 best 3.40 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 1.86 fair best 1.82 · SBO 2.16 fair best 2.00 · 1xBet
1.5 44% fair 2.27 best 2.15 · Betano 56% fair 1.79 best 1.75 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.33 fair best 1.33 · BetVictor 4.04 fair best 3.28 · 1xBet
1 1.46 fair best 1.47 · Betano 3.16 fair best 2.78 · 1xBet
1.25 1.86 fair best 1.82 · SBO 2.16 fair best 2.00 · 1xBet
1.5 44% fair 2.27 best 2.15 · Betano 56% fair 1.79 best 1.75 · 1xBet
1.75 2.82 fair best 2.54 · 1xBet 1.55 fair best 1.54 · 1xBet

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
9.5 56% fair 1.79 best 1.69 · 1xBet 44% fair 2.26 best 2.10 · Bet365
10 1.99 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet 2.01 fair best 1.90 · Bet365
10.5 44% fair 2.25 best 2.12 · Betano 56% fair 1.80 best 1.68 · Marathonbet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
9 1.59 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet 2.71 fair best 2.29 · 1xBet
9.5 56% fair 1.79 best 1.69 · 1xBet 44% fair 2.26 best 2.10 · Bet365
10 1.99 fair best 1.92 · 1xBet 2.01 fair best 1.90 · Bet365
10.5 44% fair 2.25 best 2.12 · Betano 56% fair 1.80 best 1.68 · Marathonbet
11 2.62 fair best 2.41 · 1xBet 1.62 fair best 1.44 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line LiverpoolChelsea
−1.5 40% fair 2.50 best 2.40 · 1xBet 60% fair 1.66 best 1.53 · Marathonbet
−1 2.29 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet 1.77 fair best 1.65 · Marathonbet
−0.5 49% fair 2.06 best 1.95 · Betano 51% fair 1.94 best 1.72 · Betano
0 1.86 fair best 1.80 · Bet365 2.16 fair best 2.00 · 1xBet
+0.5 58% fair 1.72 best 1.82 · Bet365 42% fair 2.39 best 1.98 · Bet365

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–110.4%fair 9.65
  2. 2–19.0%fair 11.17
  3. 1–27.3%fair 13.73
  4. 2–26.8%fair 14.67
  5. 2–05.9%fair 17.01
  6. 3–15.6%fair 17.92

Total goals

  • 04%
  • 110%
  • 220%
  • 322%
  • 4+44%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Liverpool at home, Chelsea away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesLiverpoolChelsea
Goals scored per game 2.20 (1.80) 2.50 (1.20)
Goals conceded per game 1.20 (1.30) 1.80 (2.30)
Over 2.5 goals 60% (60%) 70% (80%)
Both teams scored 50% (70%) 60% (60%)
Clean sheets 40% (20%) 20% (10%)
Failed to score 20% (20%) 20% (30%)
xG for / against per game 1.61 / 1.16 1.53 / 1.35
Corners for / against per game 5.90 / 4.50 5.70 / 5.20
Cards per game 1.50 1.70

Over 2.5 goals: Liverpool in 60% and Chelsea in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 66% for this match.

From 10 matches for Liverpool and 10 for Chelsea. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected
The flag recorded for this match was on 2; this outcome was not recorded as a flag.
Opening sharp
2.86
Current Value still active
soft 2.31 · sharp 2.13 · fair 2.21 · edge +4.5%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Liverpool averaged 2.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Chelsea averaged 1.8 and 1.6 over 5.

Since opening around 2.86, the sharp market price on Liverpool has shortened to 2.13 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Liverpool has won its last 4 matches.
✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on Liverpool at +4.5% above fair.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Liverpool
W W W W L
avg 2.8 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)
Chelsea
L W W L D
avg 1.8 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
09 May 2026 Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea
04 Oct 2025 Chelsea 2–1 Liverpool
04 May 2025 Chelsea 3–1 Liverpool
20 Oct 2024 Liverpool 2–1 Chelsea
31 Jan 2024 Liverpool 4–1 Chelsea

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.28
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Chelsea
Odds when flagged 2.41
Fair odds 2.38
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint b51a7fe47eb0208d

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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