Peru Liga 1 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC

FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos

Fair price as of 16:08 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 00:05 UTC
Check my slip

Most likely: FBC Melgar 79%
Over 2.5 goals: 64%
Most likely score 2–0 (12.6%, estimate)

The sharp market makes FBC Melgar the most likely outcome at 79% — fair odds of 1.27. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — FBC Melgar: WWDDW; Comerciantes Unidos: WLDLL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · Not re-checked · Flag recorded 27 Oct: 1 · FBC Melgar at +1.3%

Value check

Not re-checked

A gap of +1.3% on 1 was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen 6 hours ago

Betting on FBC Melgar anyway? The best price we see is 1.29 at William Hill, +1.3% against the fair odds of 1.27. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1 Home win 79%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	79%	13%	8%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	81%	12%	7%
Our model	66%	22%	13%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.24

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.21 / 6.35 / 10.38

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 6 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.27

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 1.29 / 6.00 / 11.00

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 9 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	1.27	7.41	12.55
Pinnacle sharp	1.24	5.95	9.51
1xBet	1.25	5.60	9.90
Bet365	1.27	5.25	11.00 ★
Betano	1.28	5.20	8.50
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	1.22	5.50	9.00
Dafabet	1.28	6.00 ★	9.80
Marathonbet	1.24	5.60	9.90
William Hill	1.29 ★	5.00	9.00

Show all 9 bookmakers

SBO

1.24

4.73

6.76

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 16:08 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.77 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.5	39% fair 2.56 best 2.33 · 1xBet	61% fair 1.64 best 1.60 · Betano

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
2.25	1.41 fair best 1.35 · 1xBet	3.47 fair best 2.80 · 1xBet
2.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.53 · Bet365	36% fair 2.77 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75	1.71 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet	2.42 fair best 2.10 · 1xBet
3	1.93 fair best 1.82 · SBO	2.08 fair best 1.94 · SBO
3.25	2.24 fair best 2.09 · 1xBet	1.81 fair best 1.68 · 1xBet
3.5	39% fair 2.56 best 2.33 · 1xBet	61% fair 1.64 best 1.60 · Betano
3.75	3.06 fair best 2.67 · 1xBet	1.48 fair best 1.40 · 1xBet
4	3.78 fair best 3.30 · 1xBet	1.36 fair best 1.25 · 1xBet

Double chance

1X	12	X2
92% fair 1.09 best 1.07 · William Hill	87% fair 1.16 best 1.17 · Bet365	21% fair 4.66 best 3.75 · Bet365

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	FBC Melgar	Comerciantes Unidos
−2.25	2.94 fair best 2.56 · 1xBet	1.52 fair best 1.50 · Bet365
−2	2.54 fair best 2.30 · Betano	1.65 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
−1.75	2.11 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.90 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
−1.5	53% fair 1.88 best 1.80 · SBO	47% fair 2.14 best 2.05 · Bet365
−1.25	1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365	2.59 fair best 2.35 · Bet365

All lines (8)

Line	FBC Melgar	Comerciantes Unidos
−2.5	30% fair 3.35 best 2.85 · Bet365	70% fair 1.43 best 1.40 · Bet365
−2.25	2.94 fair best 2.56 · 1xBet	1.52 fair best 1.50 · Bet365
−2	2.54 fair best 2.30 · Betano	1.65 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
−1.75	2.11 fair best 1.98 · 1xBet	1.90 fair best 1.82 · Bet365
−1.5	53% fair 1.88 best 1.80 · SBO	47% fair 2.14 best 2.05 · Bet365
−1.25	1.63 fair best 1.58 · Bet365	2.59 fair best 2.35 · Bet365
−1	1.39 fair best 1.45 · Betano	3.55 fair best 2.85 · Bet365
−0.75	1.40 fair best 1.32 · Bet365	3.52 fair best 3.30 · Bet365

Goals by team

FBC Melgar goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	45% fair 2.24 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook	55% fair 1.81 best 1.73 · Bet365

Comerciantes Unidos goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	52% fair 1.94 best 1.83 · 1xBet	48% fair 2.07 best 1.95 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
58% fair 1.73 best 1.72 · Betano	32% fair 3.13 best 2.75 · Bet365	10% fair 9.87 best 8.50 · William Hill

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	2.00 fair best 1.82 · 1xBet	2.00 fair best 1.94 · SBO

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

2–012.6%fair 7.96
3–010.9%fair 9.19
1–010.0%fair 10.02
2–18.7%fair 11.49
3–17.5%fair 13.26
4–07.1%fair 14.14

Total goals

03%
113%
220%
322%
4+42%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: FBC Melgar at home, Comerciantes Unidos away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	FBC Melgar	Comerciantes Unidos
Goals scored per game	1.90 (2.40)	1.70 (1.20)
Goals conceded per game	1.20 (1.20)	1.70 (1.90)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (70%)	70% (60%)
Both teams scored	60% (80%)	80% (60%)
Clean sheets	30% (20%)	0% (0%)
Failed to score	10% (0%)	20% (40%)
xG for / against per game	1.81 / 1.07	1.91 / 1.55
Corners for / against per game	5.60 / 4.60	3.80 / 5.30
Cards per game	2.00	2.20

Over 2.5 goals: FBC Melgar in 60% and Comerciantes Unidos in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 64% for this match.

From 10 matches for FBC Melgar and 10 for Comerciantes Unidos. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle

Detected · Tue, 27 Oct · 05:00 UTC

1 FBC Melgar · soft 1.29 (William Hill) · fair 1.27 · edge +1.3%

Opening sharp

1.21

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

FBC Melgar averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Comerciantes Unidos averaged 1.4 and 1.8 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

FBC Melgar has won its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on FBC Melgar here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

FBC Melgar

W W D D W

avg 2 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Comerciantes Unidos

W L D L L

avg 1.4 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

10 May 2026 Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 FBC Melgar

27 Sep 2025 Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 FBC Melgar

02 May 2025 FBC Melgar 1–1 Comerciantes Unidos

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Wed, 21 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1 · Home win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.21

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · FBC Melgar

Odds when flagged 1.29

Fair odds 1.27

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint e615f3eb02dcc0c7

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit