Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Peru Liga 1 fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.
Reconstructed from the matches in the TipsAudit dataset — not an official league table. Teams may show a different number of games played, and play-off or play-out stages are not separated. For the official table, use the league's own source.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 16 |
| 2 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 | Cusco | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Sport Boys | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
| 5 | Universitario | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Juan Pablo II College | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 9 | Sport Huancayo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 10 |
| 10 | Alianza Lima | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Comerciantes Unidos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Cienciano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | FC Cajamarca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | UCV Moquegua | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | ADT | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 2 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 1 |
| # | Team | Avg. finish | P(title) | P(relegation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2.6 | 40.3% | 0% |
| 2 | Universitario | 3.5 | 22.6% | 0% |
| 3 | Alianza Atletico | 4.8 | 10.8% | 0% |
| 4 | Alianza Lima | 5 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 5 | Cusco | 5 | 8.3% | 0.1% |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 6.1 | 4.7% | 0.1% |
| 7 | Sporting Cristal | 7.6 | 2% | 0.7% |
| 8 | Sport Boys | 8.1 | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| 9 | Sport Huancayo | 9.1 | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| 10 | Juan Pablo II College | 10.5 | 0.2% | 4.9% |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 11 | 0.3% | 7.6% |
| 12 | Comerciantes Unidos | 11.8 | 0% | 11.7% |
| 13 | Cienciano | 12 | 0% | 14.1% |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 12.7 | 0% | 19.3% |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 13.3 | 0% | 24.7% |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 14 | 0% | 37% |
| 17 | ADT | 16.7 | 0% | 85% |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 17.2 | 0% | 92.5% |
How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.
The sharpest public forecast for Peru Liga 1 is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Peru Liga 1 fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.
We publish an audit, not tips. For each Peru Liga 1 match you get the fair price and an honest value check; every prediction is logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.