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Peru

Peru Liga 1 predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Peru Liga 1 fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)
How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between and · prices older than 6 hours may have moved: re-check at your bookmaker

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time Match 1X2 Value
Juan Pablo II CollegeSport Huancayo
 34% 2.85 fair 2.95 28% 3.38 fair 3.60 38% 2.50 fair 2.61 No value
ADTUCV Moquegua
 58% 1.71 fair 1.72 24% 3.85 fair 4.15 18% 5.00 fair 5.63 No value
FC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca
 51% 1.93 fair 1.96 23% 4.10 fair 4.37 26% 3.94 fair 3.82 No value
Alianza AtleticoDeportivo Garcilaso
 55% 1.80 fair 1.83 24% 3.75 fair 4.22 22% 4.75 fair 4.61 No value
CiencianoAtletico Grau
 77% 1.31 fair 1.30 14% 5.80 fair 6.97 9% 9.50 fair 11.70 Not re-checked
Club Deportivo Los ChankasCusco
 29% 3.30 fair 3.50 27% 3.60 fair 3.73 45% 2.15 fair 2.24 No value
Sporting CristalAlianza Lima
 38% 2.47 fair 2.66 29% 3.34 fair 3.44 33% 2.90 fair 3.00 No value
FBC MelgarComerciantes Unidos
 79% 1.29 fair 1.27 13% 6.00 fair 7.41 8% 11.00 fair 12.55 Not re-checked

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

DateMatchScoreMarket gave this result
Deportivo Garcilaso – Club Deportivo Los Chankas 4–1 60%
Sport Boys – FC Cajamarca 4–2 63%
UCV Moquegua – Alianza Lima 0–1 63%
Comerciantes Unidos – Cienciano 3–1 32%
Universitario – Juan Pablo II College 3–0 74%
Cusco – Sporting Cristal 3–1 49%
Sport Huancayo – Alianza Atletico 4–1 68%
Atletico Grau – ADT 1–1 25%
UTC Cajamarca – FBC Melgar 1–2 60%
Cienciano – UTC Cajamarca 1–0 83%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Peru Liga 1

Across the matches we priced in Peru Liga 1, the market's average 1X2 margin is 8.67%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Dafabet at 4.98%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Dafabet → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of . We read it again after matches finish.

# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
Primera Division: Apertura
1 Alianza Lima 17 12 4 1 30 8 +22 40
2 Club Deportivo Los Chankas 17 10 4 3 25 21 +4 34
3 Cienciano 17 10 3 4 34 22 +12 33
4 Universitario 17 8 5 4 24 15 +9 29
5 FBC Melgar 17 8 4 5 29 20 +9 28
6 Cusco 17 8 3 6 21 24 -3 27
7 Deportivo Garcilaso 17 7 5 5 21 18 +3 26
8 Alianza Atletico 17 5 6 6 20 18 +2 21
9 Comerciantes Unidos 17 5 6 6 18 20 -2 21
10 ADT 17 5 5 7 22 21 +1 20
11 Sport Boys 17 5 5 7 15 19 -4 20
12 Sporting Cristal 17 5 4 8 28 30 -2 19
13 UTC Cajamarca 17 4 6 7 21 26 -5 18
14 UCV Moquegua 17 5 3 9 17 24 -7 18
15 FC Cajamarca 17 4 5 8 23 28 -5 17
16 Atletico Grau 17 4 4 9 12 18 -6 16
17 Sport Huancayo 17 4 4 9 21 31 -10 16
18 Juan Pablo II College 17 4 4 9 22 40 -18 16
Primera Division: Clausura
1 Sport Huancayo 13 9 1 3 23 15 +8 28
2 Universitario 13 8 3 2 28 19 +9 27
3 Deportivo Garcilaso 13 8 1 4 24 12 +12 25
4 Sporting Cristal 13 8 1 4 26 15 +11 25
5 FBC Melgar 13 7 4 2 24 14 +10 25
6 Alianza Lima 13 7 4 2 20 12 +8 25
7 Juan Pablo II College 13 6 4 3 23 16 +7 22
8 Alianza Atletico 13 7 1 5 25 26 -1 22
9 Cusco 13 7 0 6 24 19 +5 21
10 Sport Boys 13 6 3 4 19 14 +5 21
11 Atletico Grau 13 5 3 5 16 17 -1 18
12 Cienciano 13 4 2 7 16 21 -5 14
13 Comerciantes Unidos 13 3 4 6 23 24 -1 13
14 Club Deportivo Los Chankas 13 3 3 7 14 29 -15 12
15 FC Cajamarca 13 3 2 8 20 29 -9 11
16 UCV Moquegua 13 2 4 7 8 20 -12 10
17 ADT 13 1 4 8 9 24 -15 7
18 UTC Cajamarca 13 0 2 11 12 28 -16 2
Primera Division: Tabla Anual
1 Alianza Lima 30 19 8 3 50 20 +30 65
2 Universitario 30 16 8 6 52 34 +18 56
3 FBC Melgar 30 15 8 7 53 34 +19 53
4 Deportivo Garcilaso 30 15 6 9 45 30 +15 51
5 Cusco 30 15 3 12 45 43 +2 48
6 Cienciano 30 14 5 11 50 43 +7 47
7 Club Deportivo Los Chankas 30 13 7 10 39 50 -11 46
8 Sporting Cristal 30 13 5 12 54 45 +9 44
9 Sport Huancayo 30 13 5 12 44 46 -2 44
10 Alianza Atletico 30 12 7 11 45 44 +1 43
11 Sport Boys 30 11 8 11 34 33 +1 41
12 Juan Pablo II College 30 10 8 12 45 56 -11 38
13 Comerciantes Unidos 30 8 10 12 41 44 -3 34
14 Atletico Grau 30 9 7 14 28 35 -7 34
15 FC Cajamarca 30 7 7 16 43 57 -14 28
16 UCV Moquegua 30 7 7 16 25 44 -19 28
17 ADT 30 6 9 15 31 45 -14 27
18 UTC Cajamarca 30 4 8 18 33 54 -21 15

Team stats this season

270 matches this season: 2.79 goals per game, 54% over 2.5, 59% both teams scored. xG 2.82 per match (from 102 matches); 8.8 corners and 4.8 cards per match (from 269 matches with statistics).

TeamMPGFGA Over 2.5BTTSClean sheets xG for / against CornersCards
Sporting Cristal 301.771.43 67%70%20% 1.59 / 1.66 10.42.2
Sport Huancayo 301.471.53 67%70%20% 1.70 / 1.22 9.42.8
Universitario 301.731.13 63%60%30% 1.39 / 0.99 8.91.8
Cusco 301.501.43 63%67%17% 1.46 / 1.73 8.22.2
FBC Melgar 301.771.13 60%67%27% 1.99 / 1.34 9.42.2
Cienciano 301.671.43 60%63%20% 2.30 / 1.10 9.12.1
Juan Pablo II College 301.501.87 60%63%13% 1.20 / 1.30 9.22.1
FC Cajamarca 301.431.83 60%70%3% 0.87 / 2.09 7.72.5
Alianza Atletico 301.431.43 57%67%23% 1.23 / 1.90 8.52.5
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 301.301.67 57%57%23% 1.27 / 1.71 9.02.4
UTC Cajamarca 301.101.80 57%63%13% 0.78 / 1.37 9.02.9
Comerciantes Unidos 301.371.47 53%67%17% 1.25 / 1.45 8.52.5
UCV Moquegua 300.831.47 50%40%27% 0.79 / 1.71 8.62.5
ADT 301.031.50 47%53%23% 1.57 / 1.22 9.33.0
Alianza Lima 301.670.67 40%53%40% 1.51 / 0.69 7.21.9
Deportivo Garcilaso 301.501.00 40%47%37% 1.56 / 1.54 8.92.3
Sport Boys 301.131.10 33%43%40% 1.48 / 1.25 9.13.0
Atletico Grau 300.871.17 33%40%33% 1.17 / 1.73 8.52.1

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

# Team Avg. finish P(title) P(relegation)
1 Universitario 4 18.7% 0%
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 4 18.3% 0%
3 Alianza Atletico 4.2 18.5% 0%
4 Sporting Cristal 4.3 15% 0%
5 Alianza Lima 4.9 10% 0%
6 Sport Huancayo 5.2 10.4% 0%
7 FBC Melgar 5.7 5.8% 0%
8 Cusco 7.2 1.7% 0%
9 Juan Pablo II College 8.5 1.1% 0%
10 Sport Boys 8.6 0.5% 0%
11 Atletico Grau 11.1 0% 0.8%
12 Cienciano 12.4 0% 4.9%
13 FC Cajamarca 12.8 0% 6%
14 Club Deportivo Los Chankas 14 0% 19.8%
15 Comerciantes Unidos 14.3 0% 24.5%
16 ADT 16 0% 70.5%
17 UCV Moquegua 16 0% 74.2%
18 UTC Cajamarca 17.8 0% 99.3%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Peru Liga 1 predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Peru Liga 1 is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Peru Liga 1 fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Peru Liga 1 betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Peru Liga 1 match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit

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