Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · Latest results
When the value flag on Atletico Paranaense was recorded live, the sharp market made Atletico Paranaense the most likely outcome at 38% (fair odds 2.67). On Atletico Paranaense, Unibet (NL) offered 2.80, +5.0% above its fair price of 2.67 (Strong value). Recent form — Gremio: WLDDD; Atletico Paranaense: DLWDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 23' J. Portilla · yellow card · Atletico Paranaense
- 29' J. Enamorado · yellow card · Gremio
- 37' Leo Derik · yellow card · Atletico Paranaense
- 39' 1–0 Marlon · goal · Gremio
- 52' 2–0 Fabian Balbuena · goal · Gremio
- 66' Carlos Vinicius · yellow card · Gremio
- 69' E. Noriega · yellow card · Gremio
- 88' B. Zapelli · yellow card · Atletico Paranaense
- 90+2' Weverton · yellow card · Gremio
Match stats
| Match stats | Gremio | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 30 | 70 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.47 | 1.37 |
| Shots | 19 | 16 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 4 |
| Corners | 6 | 8 |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 13 | 17 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 4 | 3 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73 | 90 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Gremio win 43% happened
- Draw 28% did not happen
- Atletico Paranaense win 30% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 52% did not happen
- Both teams score 58% did not happen
- Value flag before kick-off: 2 · Atletico Paranaense @ 2.80 (Unibet (NL)) Lost
CLV -16.5% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Gremio 3-4-3
- 1 Weverton GK
- 6 Gustavo Martins DF
- 2 Fabián Balbuena DF
- 82 Wallace DF
- 18 João Pedro MF
- 8 Erick Noriega MF
- 20 Mathias Villasanti MF
- 23 Marlon MF
- 99 José Enamorado FW
- 95 Carlos Vinícius FW
- 9 Francis Amuzu FW
Bench: Gabriel Grando, Marcos Rocha, Pedro Gabriel, Wagner Leonardo, Caio Paulista, Zortéa, Filip Krovinović, Dodi, João Borne, Matheus Nascimento, Tetê, Martin Braithwaite
Regular starters not in the XI
- C. Pavón — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
- 1 Mycael GK
- 4 Arthur Dias DF
- 33 Juan Felipe Aguirre DF
- 37 Lucas Esquivel DF
- 7 Steven Mendoza MF
- 27 Juan Portilla MF
- 14 Luiz Gustavo MF
- 6 Leonardo Derik MF
- 21 Leozinho FW
- 8 João Cruz FW
- 9 Kevin Viveros FW
Bench: Santos, Gastón Benavídez, Bruno Baldini, Gilberto Junior, Dantas, Dudu, Chiqueti, Kerwin Vargas, Felipinho, Bruno Zapelli, Jorge Rivaldo, Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno
Regular starters not in the XI
- Gilberto — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- Jádson — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 41 / 29 / 30% when the line-ups came out, 43 / 28 / 30% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value opportunity before kick-off Strong value
Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.
Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Atletico Paranaense (2) was priced at 2.80 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.67 — a +5.0% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.
A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 37% | 29% | 34% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 29% | 25% | 47% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Gremio averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Atletico Paranaense averaged 1.8 and 1.4 over 5.
Since opening around 2.81, the sharp market price on Atletico Paranaense has drifted to 3.35 — the market has moved against this outcome.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Value lifecycle Settled
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
