Brazil

Brazil Serie A predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Brazil Serie A fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 23:32 UTC and 23:34 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Tue · 22:30 UTC	Chapecoense-scMirassol	26% 3.60 fair 3.80	27% 3.75 fair 3.75	47% 2.09 fair 2.13	Value expired
Wed · 00:30 UTC	InternacionalCoritiba	60% 1.65 fair 1.66	23% 4.11 fair 4.28	17% 5.75 fair 6.05	Value expired
Wed · 22:30 UTC	FlamengoGremio	84% 1.20 fair 1.19 +1.2%	10% 8.25 fair 9.83	5% 15.50 fair 18.38	Micro-edge
Wed · 22:30 UTC	Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama	46% 2.18 fair 2.17	27% 3.75 fair 3.74	27% 3.40 fair 3.68	Value expired
Thu · 00:30 UTC	BotafogoAtletico-MG	51% 2.02 fair 1.95 +3.6%	24% 3.85 fair 4.16	25% 3.71 fair 4.05	Strong value
Thu · 00:30 UTC	Sao PauloCorinthians	42% 2.30 fair 2.39	30% 3.30 fair 3.34	28% 3.65 fair 3.54	No value
Thu · 22:30 UTC	PalmeirasRemo	81% 1.24 fair 1.24	13% 6.90 fair 7.94	7% 13.00 fair 15.08	No value
Fri · 00:30 UTC	CruzeiroBahia	57% 1.73 fair 1.77	22% 4.28 fair 4.52	21% 4.60 fair 4.70	Value expired
Fri · 23:00 UTC	VitoriaFluminense	33% 2.90 fair 2.99	29% 3.40 fair 3.47	38% 2.60 fair 2.65	Value expired

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
31 Oct	Coritiba – Vitoria	2–0	46%
30 Oct	Corinthians – Mirassol	2–0	52%
30 Oct	Gremio – Atletico Paranaense	2–0	43%
29 Oct	Vasco DA Gama – Flamengo	1–4	57%
29 Oct	Atletico-MG – Cruzeiro	0–1	41%
29 Oct	Remo – Botafogo	2–1	38%
29 Oct	Bahia – Sao Paulo	3–2	51%
28 Oct	RB Bragantino – Chapecoense-sc	3–0	75%
28 Oct	Santos – Palmeiras	0–0	26%
28 Oct	Fluminense – Internacional	2–1	54%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Brazil Serie A

Across the matches we priced in Brazil Serie A, the market's average 1X2 margin is 7.67%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 3.62%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	22	7	4	68	28	+40	73
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	56	22	+34	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	52	46	+6	57
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	52	42	+10	54
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	50	40	+10	54
6	Bahia	33	14	11	8	48	42	+6	53
7	Atletico-MG	33	14	8	11	44	39	+5	50
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	49	47	+2	47
9	RB Bragantino	33	12	8	13	42	38	+4	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	39	39	+0	43
11	Coritiba	33	11	9	13	40	50	-10	42
12	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45	53	-8	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	10	8	14	40	49	-9	38
14	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	35	48	-13	38
15	Gremio	33	9	10	14	37	44	-7	37
16	Mirassol	33	9	10	14	37	47	-10	37
17	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	36	42	-6	36
18	Internacional	33	8	11	14	37	42	-5	35
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	36	51	-15	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	4	9	19	32	66	-34	21

Top scorers — 2026 · updated 2 Nov 2026

#	Player	Team	Goals	Assists
1	K. Viveros	Atletico Paranaense	21	3
2	Pedro	Flamengo	18	6
3	Gabriel Barbosa	Santos	15	3
4	Kaio Jorge	Cruzeiro	12	2
5	Samuel Lino	Flamengo	11	9

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

329 matches this season: 2.66 goals per game, 51% over 2.5, 59% both teams scored. xG 2.59 per match (from 276 matches); 10.6 corners and 4.8 cards per match (from 329 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Flamengo	33	2.06	0.85	64%	52%	42%	1.74 / 0.86	9.9	2.3
Cruzeiro	33	1.58	1.39	64%	67%	24%	1.44 / 1.28	10.1	2.6
Santos	33	1.48	1.42	64%	73%	21%	1.39 / 1.32	10.7	3.2
Botafogo	33	1.36	1.61	64%	67%	15%	1.25 / 1.41	10.3	2.6
Vasco DA Gama	32	1.25	1.53	59%	63%	13%	1.61 / 0.95	9.7	1.9
Chapecoense-sc	32	1.00	2.06	59%	63%	6%	0.98 / 1.72	10.1	2.2
Fluminense	33	1.58	1.27	58%	73%	18%	1.33 / 1.15	9.9	2.5
Bahia	33	1.45	1.27	52%	64%	27%	1.63 / 1.36	11.8	2.4
Atletico Paranaense	33	1.52	1.21	49%	58%	24%	1.35 / 1.16	10.5	2.1
Atletico-MG	33	1.33	1.18	49%	49%	24%	1.32 / 1.25	11.0	1.9
Coritiba	33	1.21	1.52	49%	49%	21%	1.09 / 1.48	10.7	1.9
Remo	33	1.09	1.55	49%	61%	12%	1.00 / 1.42	11.4	2.2
Palmeiras	33	1.70	0.67	46%	52%	49%	1.35 / 1.02	11.6	2.4
Mirassol	33	1.12	1.42	46%	64%	9%	1.19 / 1.41	10.4	2.6
Corinthians	33	1.09	1.27	46%	58%	33%	0.96 / 1.23	9.8	2.8
Gremio	33	1.12	1.33	42%	58%	24%	1.00 / 1.62	10.0	2.8
Internacional	33	1.12	1.27	42%	58%	21%	1.41 / 1.22	10.4	2.7
RB Bragantino	33	1.27	1.15	39%	52%	27%	1.53 / 1.65	11.8	2.6
Sao Paulo	33	1.18	1.18	39%	58%	21%	1.34 / 1.18	11.6	2.2
Vitoria	33	1.06	1.45	39%	42%	33%	1.00 / 1.43	9.5	2.3

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Flamengo	1	96%	0%
2	Cruzeiro	2.3	3.8%	0%
3	Palmeiras	3.3	0.2%	0%
4	Bahia	5.1	0%	0%
5	Atletico-MG	5.6	0%	0%
6	Santos	5.6	0%	0%
7	Atletico Paranaense	6.6	0%	0%
8	Fluminense	7.7	0%	0%
9	Mirassol	9.1	0%	0%
10	Sao Paulo	11.6	0%	1.6%
11	Botafogo	11.9	0%	1.5%
12	Vasco DA Gama	12	0%	1.9%
13	Vitoria	14.3	0%	13.2%
14	RB Bragantino	14.4	0%	14.3%
15	Gremio	14.7	0%	15.4%
16	Coritiba	14.9	0%	17.1%
17	Internacional	15.5	0%	26.1%
18	Corinthians	17.1	0%	52.2%
19	Chapecoense-sc	18.5	0%	76.8%
20	Remo	18.6	0%	79.7%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Brazil Serie A predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Brazil Serie A is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Brazil Serie A fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Brazil Serie A betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Brazil Serie A match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit