Energie Cottbus 1–2 VfL Bochum
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, VfL Bochum was the most likely outcome at 47% (fair odds 2.15). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Energie Cottbus: DDLDW; VfL Bochum: WDLLL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 9' Tom Meyer · yellow card · VfL Bochum
- 20' Timo Horn · yellow card · VfL Bochum
- 21' 1–0 Tolcay Cigerci (pen.) · Energie Cottbus
- 25' King Samuel Manu · yellow card · Energie Cottbus
- 53' Philipp Hofmann · disallowed by VAR · VfL Bochum
- 56' Justin Butler · disallowed by VAR · Energie Cottbus
- 70' 1–1 Philipp Hofmann · goal · assist Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen · VfL Bochum
- 72' Michael Steinwender · yellow card · VfL Bochum
- 77' Philipp Hofmann · yellow card · VfL Bochum
- 88' 1–2 Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen · goal · assist Mats Henry Pannewig · VfL Bochum
Match stats
| Match stats | Energie Cottbus | VfL Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 55 | 45 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 | 1.32 |
| Shots | 14 | 12 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 4 |
| Corners | 5 | 4 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 2 | 19 |
| Offsides | 1 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Energie Cottbus win 29% did not happen
- Draw 25% did not happen
- VfL Bochum win 46% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 66% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Lotka GK
- 3 H. Rorig DF
- 2 K. Manu DF
- 21 Luca Erlein DF
- 25 L. Guwara DF
- 32 L. Bittencourt MF
- 8 Lukas Michelbrink MF
- 10 T. Ciğerci MF
- 9 L. Copado MF
- 11 M. Hannemann MF
- 31 J. Butler FW
Bench: Dmytro Bohdanov, T. Campulka, Fousseny Doumbia, J. Hofmann, C. Kinsombi, D. Pelivan, J. Zaydan, K. Kratzsch, J. Boziaris
Coach: C. Wollitz
VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1
- 1 T. Horn GK
- 2 S. Klaiber DF
- 15 M. Steinwender DF
- 5 K. Mets DF
- 32 M. Wittek DF
- 34 T. Meyer MF
- 24 M. Pannewig MF
- 23 K. Miyoshi MF
- 10 B. Taz MF
- 17 G. Holtmann MF
- 33 P. Hofmann FW
Bench: Y. Karademir, M. Ouro-Tagba, C. Patino, C. Rasmussen, L. Sawas, J. Steuckers, L. Isbruch, D. Hanslik, T. Casali
Coach: U. Rösler
Regular starters not in the XI
- C. Rasmussen — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 30 / 25 / 45% when the line-ups came out, 29 / 25 / 46% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 29% | 25% | 47% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Energie Cottbus averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; VfL Bochum averaged 0.8 and 1.2 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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