Fortuna Düsseldorf 0–0 SV Meppen
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Fortuna Düsseldorf was the most likely outcome at 54% (fair odds 1.85). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Fortuna Düsseldorf: DLWDL; SV Meppen: WDWDL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 78' Dominique Domrose · yellow card · SV Meppen
- 85+5' — · yellow card · SV Meppen
- 87' Andreas Müller · yellow card · Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 88' Nikell Touglo · yellow card · SV Meppen
- 90+1' Andreas Müller · red card (after a yellow) · Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 90+4' Hamza Anhari · yellow card · Fortuna Düsseldorf
Match stats
| Match stats | Fortuna Düsseldorf | SV Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 68 | 32 |
| Shots | 26 | 7 |
| Shots on target | 10 | 4 |
| Corners | 9 | 1 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Fortuna Düsseldorf win 52% did not happen
- Draw 26% happened
- SV Meppen win 23% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 63% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-3-1-2
- 22 L. Lord GK
- 25 M. Zimmermann DF
- 15 T. Oberdorf DF
- 44 E .Egouli DF
- 7 E. Wekesser DF
- 6 A. Müller MF
- 38 E. Arden MF
- 8 J. Hendrix MF
- 14 J. Consbruch MF
- 23 F. Gerezgiher FW
- 24 F. Schleusener FW
Bench: H. Anhari, K. Amaniampong, L. Bornschein, Y. Bouchama, P. Förster, E. Hottmann, L. Rieß, S. Risch, K. Sauck
Coach: J. Langeneke
Regular starters not in the XI
- S. van der Sloot — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- A. Slimani — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
SV Meppen 4-2-3-1
- 44 J. Pünt GK
- 2 Dominique Domrose DF
- 19 L. Sprekelmeyer DF
- 33 Stefan Rankic DF
- 39 F. Bähr DF
- 6 E. Zehir MF
- 5 J. Fedl MF
- 10 K. Ghawilu MF
- 14 T. Deters MF
- 7 O. Schmitt MF
- 17 J. Ehlers FW
Bench: N. Touglo, L. Prasse, N. Nadj, R. Meier, Jonas Goldenstein, S. Engelmann, N. Oberbeck, Jona Borsum, N. Wessels
Coach: L. Beniermann
Regular starters not in the XI
- T. Mißner — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 55 / 21 / 24% when the line-ups came out, 52 / 26 / 23% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 54% | 21% | 24% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Fortuna Düsseldorf averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; SV Meppen averaged 1.6 and 0.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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