Ligue 1 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC

Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain

Fair price as of 16:35 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 17:35 UTC
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Most likely: Paris Saint Germain 80%
Over 2.5 goals: 74%
Most likely score 0–2 (9.2%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Paris Saint Germain the most likely outcome at 80% — fair odds of 1.26. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Le Havre: LLLLD; Paris Saint Germain: WWWWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 23 Oct: 2 · Paris Saint Germain at +1.9%

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +1.9% @ 1.27 · 23 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 2 hours ago

We flagged +1.9% on 2 on 23 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Paris Saint Germain anyway? The best price we see is 1.26 at 1xBet, +0.1% against the fair odds of 1.26. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

2 Away win 80%

	1	X	2
Sharp now	8%	12%	80%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	8%	12%	80%
Our model	10%	15%	75%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.25

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 9.87 / 6.94 / 1.22

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 2 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.26

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 13.00 / 7.26 / 1.26

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 40 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	12.06	8.20	1.26
Pinnacle sharp	10.34	7.20	1.24
1xBet	11.50	7.26 ★	1.26 ★
888sport	9.50	6.50	1.22
BetOnline.ag	10.40	7.20	1.23
BetVictor	10.50	6.00	1.20
Coolbet	13.00 ★	7.25	1.23
LeoVegas (SE)	12.00	7.00	1.26 ★
Unibet (SE)	12.00	7.00	1.26 ★

Show all 40 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	12.00	7.40	1.26
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	12.00	7.40	1.26
Smarkets exchange	12.00	7.20	1.25
Betano (UK) UK-only	10.50	6.00	1.20
Betclic (FR)	9.25	6.25	1.20
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	12.00	7.00	1.20
Betfred (UK) UK-only	12.00	6.50	1.22
Betsson	11.50	7.00	1.20
Betway UK-only	9.00	7.00	1.22
BoyleSports UK-only	9.00	6.00	1.22
Casumo UK-only	10.50	6.40	1.22
Codere (IT)	10.00	6.80	1.24
Coral UK-only	9.50	6.50	1.25
Everygame	9.50	6.50	1.20
GTbets	10.73	6.63	1.25
Grosvenor UK-only	10.00	6.25	1.22
Ladbrokes UK-only	9.50	6.50	1.25
LeoVegas UK-only	9.00	6.50	1.22
LiveScore Bet UK-only	9.50	6.00	1.21
Marathonbet	11.00	6.90	1.24
Nordic Bet	11.50	7.10	1.21
PMU (FR)	9.50	5.80	1.18
Paddy Power UK-only	11.00	6.50	1.18
Sky Bet UK-only	11.00	6.50	1.20
Tipico	10.50	7.00	1.20
Unibet (FR)	9.30	6.50	1.19
Unibet (NL)	10.50	6.40	1.22
Unibet (UK) UK-only	10.00	6.50	1.23
Virgin Bet UK-only	9.50	6.00	1.21
William Hill	9.50	6.50	1.22
Winamax (DE)	9.00	7.25	1.20
Winamax (FR)	9.00	7.00	1.19

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 03:41 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
2.5	74% fair 1.34 best 1.35 · Betano	26% fair 3.90 best 3.40 · Bet365
3.5	53% fair 1.90 best 1.90 · 1xBet	47% fair 2.11 best 2.05 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
2.5	74% fair 1.34 best 1.35 · Betano	26% fair 3.90 best 3.40 · Bet365
2.75	1.40 fair best 1.39 · 1xBet	3.49 fair best 3.02 · 1xBet
3	1.49 fair best 1.50 · Betano	3.05 fair best 2.75 · 1xBet
3.25	1.69 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet	2.44 fair best 2.33 · 1xBet
3.5	53% fair 1.90 best 1.90 · 1xBet	47% fair 2.11 best 2.05 · 1xBet
3.75	2.12 fair best 2.05 · SBO	1.89 fair best 1.81 · 1xBet
4	2.48 fair best 2.40 · Betano	1.68 fair best 1.64 · 1xBet
4.25	2.80 fair best 2.54 · 1xBet	1.55 fair best 1.50 · 1xBet
4.5	32% fair 3.11 best 3.00 · Bet365	68% fair 1.47 best 1.44 · 1xBet

Double chance

1X	12	X2
20% fair 4.88 best 4.33 · Betfair Sportsbook	88% fair 1.14 best 1.13 · 1xBet	92% fair 1.09 best 1.07 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Le Havre	Paris Saint Germain
+1.5	40% fair 2.52 best 2.33 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.66 best 1.71 · 1xBet
+1.75	2.22 fair best 2.07 · SBO	1.82 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet
+2	1.95 fair best 1.85 · Bet365	2.06 fair best 2.02 · Betano
+2.25	1.74 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet	2.35 fair best 2.31 · 1xBet
+2.5	62% fair 1.60 best 1.55 · Bet365	38% fair 2.66 best 2.52 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	Le Havre	Paris Saint Germain
+1	4.13 fair best 3.45 · BetVictor	1.32 fair best 1.32 · Bet365
+1.25	3.06 fair best 2.68 · Bet365	1.48 fair best 1.46 · 1xBet
+1.5	40% fair 2.52 best 2.33 · 1xBet	60% fair 1.66 best 1.71 · 1xBet
+1.75	2.22 fair best 2.07 · SBO	1.82 fair best 1.80 · 1xBet
+2	1.95 fair best 1.85 · Bet365	2.06 fair best 2.02 · Betano
+2.25	1.74 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet	2.35 fair best 2.31 · 1xBet
+2.5	62% fair 1.60 best 1.55 · Bet365	38% fair 2.66 best 2.52 · Betano
+2.75	1.46 fair best 1.42 · 1xBet	3.18 fair best 2.89 · 1xBet
+3	1.32 fair best 1.28 · 1xBet	4.14 fair best 3.60 · BetVictor

Goals by team

Le Havre goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58% fair 1.71 best 1.62 · Bet365	42% fair 2.40 best 2.21 · 1xBet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	58% fair 1.71 best 1.62 · Bet365	42% fair 2.40 best 2.21 · 1xBet
1.5	21% fair 4.87 best 4.10 · Marathonbet	79% fair 1.26 best 1.27 · 1xBet

Paris Saint Germain goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	56% fair 1.78 best 1.75 · 1xBet	44% fair 2.28 best 2.11 · Marathonbet

All lines (3)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	82% fair 1.23 best 1.24 · Betano	18% fair 5.41 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	56% fair 1.78 best 1.75 · 1xBet	44% fair 2.28 best 2.11 · Marathonbet
3.5	31% fair 3.18 best 2.85 · 1xBet	69% fair 1.46 best 1.42 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
10% fair 10.36 best 8.50 · Bet365	28% fair 3.59 best 3.10 · 1xBet	62% fair 1.60 best 1.62 · Betano

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	50% fair 2.01 best 1.98 · Betano	50% fair 1.99 best 1.91 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
1	1.34 fair best 1.38 · Betano	3.92 fair best 3.28 · 1xBet
1.25	1.67 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet	2.49 fair best 2.29 · 1xBet
1.5	50% fair 2.01 best 1.98 · Betano	50% fair 1.99 best 1.91 · William Hill
1.75	2.40 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet	1.71 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
2	3.31 fair best 3.10 · Betano	1.43 fair best 1.39 · 1xBet

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	60% fair 1.67 best 1.52 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.49 best 2.42 · Betano
9.5	47% fair 2.11 best 1.95 · Bet365	53% fair 1.90 best 1.90 · Betano
10.5	37% fair 2.72 best 2.48 · 1xBet	63% fair 1.58 best 1.52 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
8.5	60% fair 1.67 best 1.52 · 1xBet	40% fair 2.49 best 2.42 · Betano
9	1.85 fair best 1.60 · 1xBet	2.17 fair best 2.13 · 1xBet
9.5	47% fair 2.11 best 1.95 · Bet365	53% fair 1.90 best 1.90 · Betano
10	2.43 fair best 2.05 · 1xBet	1.70 fair best 1.65 · 1xBet
10.5	37% fair 2.72 best 2.48 · 1xBet	63% fair 1.58 best 1.52 · Betano

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Le Havre	Paris Saint Germain
+2	2.72 fair best 2.60 · 1xBet	1.58 fair best 1.40 · 1xBet
+2.5	44% fair 2.29 best 2.24 · 1xBet	56% fair 1.78 best 1.56 · 1xBet
+3	2.03 fair best 2.02 · 1xBet	1.97 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet
+3.5	55% fair 1.81 best 1.95 · Bet365	45% fair 2.23 best 1.90 · 1xBet
+4	1.65 fair best 1.57 · 1xBet	2.55 fair best 2.16 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

0–29.2%fair 10.88
0–39.2%fair 10.91
1–28.2%fair 12.17
1–38.2%fair 12.20
0–46.9%fair 14.59
0–16.3%fair 15.80

Total goals

02%
18%
215%
320%
4+54%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Le Havre at home, Paris Saint Germain away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Le Havre	Paris Saint Germain
Goals scored per game	1.00 (0.90)	2.80 (2.10)
Goals conceded per game	1.60 (1.40)	1.20 (1.10)
Over 2.5 goals	40% (40%)	80% (70%)
Both teams scored	50% (50%)	80% (70%)
Clean sheets	20% (20%)	20% (30%)
Failed to score	40% (50%)	0% (0%)
xG for / against per game	1.54 / 1.62	2.33 / 1.45
Corners for / against per game	4.70 / 4.30	4.80 / 3.30
Cards per game	2.10	0.80

Over 2.5 goals: Le Havre in 40% and Paris Saint Germain in 80% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 74% for this match.

From 10 matches for Le Havre and 10 for Paris Saint Germain. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected · Fri, 23 Oct · 05:30 UTC

2 Paris Saint Germain · soft 1.27 (LeoVegas (SE)) · fair 1.25 · edge +1.9%

Opening sharp

1.24

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Le Havre averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Paris Saint Germain averaged 3.2 and 1.2 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Le Havre has lost its last 4 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Le Havre here.

Paris Saint Germain has won its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Paris Saint Germain here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Le Havre

L L L L D

avg 1.2 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)

Paris Saint Germain

W W W W W

avg 3.2 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

28 Feb 2026 Le Havre 0–1 Paris Saint Germain

22 Nov 2025 Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Le Havre

19 Apr 2025 Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Le Havre

16 Aug 2024 Le Havre 1–4 Paris Saint Germain

27 Apr 2024 Paris Saint Germain 3–3 Le Havre

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Fri, 23 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 2 · Away win

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.22

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Paris Saint Germain

Odds when flagged 1.27

Fair odds 1.25

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 7ac12077d4c46947

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit