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Ligue 1 predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Ligue 1 fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)
How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between and

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time Match 1X2 Value
ToulouseStrasbourg
 46% 2.10 fair 2.16 25% 4.00 fair 3.95 28% 3.51 fair 3.53 No value
AuxerreParis FC
 22% 4.40 fair 4.56 23% 4.04 fair 4.30 55% 1.87 fair 1.82 Not re-checked
Paris Saint GermainEstac Troyes
 87% 1.16 fair 1.15 8% 10.50 fair 12.72 5% 19.00 fair 18.88 Not re-checked
RennesLille
 46% 2.13 fair 2.19 26% 3.94 fair 3.86 28% 3.65 fair 3.52 No value
AngersNice
 26% 3.70 fair 3.79 26% 3.84 fair 3.83 47% 2.14 fair 2.11 Not re-checked
Stade Brestois 29Lyon
 33% 3.04 fair 3.07 26% 3.80 fair 3.81 41% 2.50 fair 2.43 Not re-checked
Le HavreLorient
 35% 2.83 fair 2.84 28% 3.52 fair 3.55 37% 2.65 fair 2.73 Value expired
Le MansMonaco
 23% 4.45 fair 4.35 22% 4.31 fair 4.51 55% 1.80 fair 1.82 No value
LensMarseille
 47% 2.15 fair 2.15 24% 4.16 fair 4.17 29% 3.31 fair 3.40 No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

DateMatchScoreMarket gave this result
Lorient – Stade Brestois 29 0–2 30%
Marseille – Toulouse 2–0 51%
Paris FC – Monaco 3–1 38%
Lyon – Angers 2–0 69%
Strasbourg – Auxerre 5–1 51%
Estac Troyes – Le Mans 2–0 43%
Lille – Lens 1–0 35%
Nice – Rennes 5–2 35%
Le Havre – Paris Saint Germain 1–5 77%
Paris Saint Germain – Lyon 2–0 75%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Ligue 1

Across the matches we priced in Ligue 1, the market's average 1X2 margin is 6.59%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is LeoVegas (SE) at 2.51%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

LeoVegas (SE) → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of . We read it again after matches finish.

# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris Saint Germain 9 6 2 1 21 10 +11 20
2 Lille 9 5 3 1 12 6 +6 18
3 Lyon 9 5 2 2 15 7 +8 17
4 Paris FC 9 5 2 2 16 10 +6 17
5 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20 19 +1 16
6 Marseille 9 5 0 4 20 13 +7 15
7 Monaco 9 4 3 2 12 10 +2 15
8 Nice 9 4 2 3 13 12 +1 14
9 Lens 9 4 1 4 16 13 +3 13
10 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7 6 +1 12
11 Toulouse 9 2 4 3 12 13 -1 10
12 Strasbourg 9 3 1 5 17 19 -2 10
13 Auxerre 9 3 1 5 13 23 -10 10
14 Stade Brestois 29 8 2 3 3 14 12 +2 9
15 Angers 9 2 2 5 9 17 -8 8
16 Estac Troyes 9 2 2 5 7 16 -9 8
17 Le Mans 9 1 4 4 11 18 -7 7
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9 20 -11 2

Top scorers — 2026/27 · updated 2 Nov 2026

# Player Team Goals Assists
1 E. Lepaul Rennes 7 0
2 L. Sinayoko Paris FC 6 4
2 E. Wahi Nice 6 2
4 A. Gouiri Marseille 5 2
4 C. Tengstedt Toulouse 5 1

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

80 matches this season: 3.05 goals per game, 60% over 2.5, 61% both teams scored. xG 3.23 per match (from 76 matches); 9.1 corners and 3.7 cards per match (from 80 matches with statistics).

TeamMPGFGA Over 2.5BTTSClean sheets xG for / against CornersCards
Rennes 92.222.11 89%67%22% 2.16 / 2.36 11.52.3
Strasbourg 91.892.11 89%78%0% 1.37 / 1.89 7.21.7
Paris Saint Germain 92.331.11 78%78%22% 2.40 / 1.21 8.01.0
Lens 91.781.44 78%78%0% 1.73 / 1.56 10.02.2
Auxerre 91.442.56 78%89%11% 1.49 / 2.09 11.71.9
Stade Brestois 29 81.751.50 75%88%0% 2.13 / 1.27 9.01.5
Paris FC 91.781.11 67%56%33% 1.88 / 1.11 7.12.3
Nice 91.441.33 67%67%11% 1.38 / 1.73 9.12.4
Le Mans 91.222.00 67%78%0% 1.39 / 2.12 8.22.7
Marseille 92.221.44 56%44%33% 1.61 / 1.89 8.41.4
Toulouse 91.331.44 56%44%22% 1.86 / 1.33 8.12.0
Le Havre 91.002.22 56%67%11% 1.67 / 1.97 9.91.8
Lyon 91.670.78 44%44%44% 1.60 / 1.14 10.21.3
Monaco 91.331.11 44%67%22% 1.27 / 1.46 8.32.2
Angers 91.001.89 44%44%33% 1.37 / 1.82 11.71.6
Lorient 80.880.75 38%38%63% 1.11 / 1.12 8.81.1
Estac Troyes 90.781.78 33%33%33% 1.10 / 1.35 8.61.8
Lille 91.330.67 22%44%56% 1.43 / 1.50 8.51.6

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Ligue 1 predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Ligue 1 is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Ligue 1 fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Ligue 1 betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Ligue 1 match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit

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