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Argentina Liga Profesional Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · 00:15 UTC

Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central

Fair price as of 17:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 23:50 UTC
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Most likely: Rosario Central 48%
Over 2.5 goals: 43%
Most likely score 1–1 (13.4%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Rosario Central the most likely outcome at 48% — fair odds of 2.07. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Sarmiento Junin: LDDWL; Rosario Central: WWWDW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 25 Oct: 2 · Rosario Central at +6.5%

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +6.5% @ 2.14 · 25 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 1 hour ago

We flagged +6.5% on 2 on 25 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Rosario Central anyway? The best price we see is 2.05 at Ladbrokes, -1.0% against the fair odds of 2.07. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Two most likely results

X/2 Draw or away 77%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	23%	28%	48%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	22%	28%	50%
Our model	24%	25%	51%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.29

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 4.15 / 3.37 / 1.94

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 1 hour ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.30

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 4.20 / 3.40 / 2.02

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 26 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	4.29	3.52	2.07
Pinnacle sharp	4.00	3.31	2.00
1xBet	4.00	3.32	1.99
BetAnything	4.20 ★	3.37	1.94
BetOnline.ag	4.20 ★	3.37	1.94
Betclic (FR)	3.75	3.07	1.86
Betsson	3.95	3.40 ★	1.98
Ladbrokes UK-only	3.70	3.25	2.05 ★
Nordic Bet	3.95	3.40 ★	1.98

Show all 26 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	4.10	3.25	1.97
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	4.10	3.25	1.97
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	3.80	3.20	2.00
Betfred (UK) UK-only	3.60	3.25	1.95
Betway UK-only	3.75	3.30	1.95
BoyleSports UK-only	3.80	3.20	1.95
Codere (IT)	3.95	3.25	1.97
LeoVegas (SE)	3.60	2.95	1.91
LiveScore Bet UK-only	3.65	3.00	1.95
Marathonbet	3.92	3.25	1.95
Paddy Power UK-only	3.75	3.10	1.95
Sky Bet UK-only	3.40	3.00	1.91
Unibet (FR)	3.70	3.05	1.79
Unibet (SE)	3.90	3.15	2.02
Unibet (UK) UK-only	4.00	3.25	1.98
Virgin Bet UK-only	3.65	3.00	1.95
Winamax (DE)	3.65	3.15	1.88
Winamax (FR)	3.60	3.10	1.86

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 08:00 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	70% fair 1.42 best 1.44 · Betano	30% fair 3.38 best 3.00 · Bet365
2.5	43% fair 2.34 best 2.27 · Betano	57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Bet365
3.5	21% fair 4.85 best 4.10 · BetVictor	79% fair 1.26 best 1.25 · Betano

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	70% fair 1.42 best 1.44 · Betano	30% fair 3.38 best 3.00 · Bet365
1.75	1.53 fair best 1.48 · 1xBet	2.90 fair best 2.47 · 1xBet
2	1.70 fair best 1.70 · Betano	2.43 fair best 2.20 · Betano
2.25	2.02 fair best 1.96 · 1xBet	1.98 fair best 1.88 · SBO
2.5	43% fair 2.34 best 2.27 · Betano	57% fair 1.75 best 1.67 · Bet365
2.75	2.79 fair best 2.58 · 1xBet	1.56 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor
3.5	21% fair 4.85 best 4.10 · BetVictor	79% fair 1.26 best 1.25 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
52% fair 1.93 best 1.85 · Betano	72% fair 1.40 best 1.36 · Bet365	77% fair 1.30 best 1.25 · William Hill

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Sarmiento Junin	Rosario Central
0	3.13 fair best 2.85 · Bet365	1.47 fair best 1.43 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.28 fair best 2.16 · 1xBet	1.78 fair best 1.70 · 1xBet
+0.5	52% fair 1.92 best 1.87 · Betano	48% fair 2.09 best 1.98 · Bet365
+0.75	1.67 fair best 1.60 · Bet365	2.48 fair best 2.30 · Bet365
+1	1.45 fair best 1.42 · Betano	3.24 fair best 3.00 · Betano

All lines (9)

Line	Sarmiento Junin	Rosario Central
−0.5	22% fair 4.49 best 3.90 · Bet365	78% fair 1.29 best 1.31 · Betano
−0.25	3.83 fair best 3.45 · Bet365	1.35 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
0	3.13 fair best 2.85 · Bet365	1.47 fair best 1.43 · 1xBet
+0.25	2.28 fair best 2.16 · 1xBet	1.78 fair best 1.70 · 1xBet
+0.5	52% fair 1.92 best 1.87 · Betano	48% fair 2.09 best 1.98 · Bet365
+0.75	1.67 fair best 1.60 · Bet365	2.48 fair best 2.30 · Bet365
+1	1.45 fair best 1.42 · Betano	3.24 fair best 3.00 · Betano
+1.25	1.36 fair best 1.32 · Bet365	3.82 fair best 3.35 · BetVictor
+1.5	77% fair 1.30 best 1.26 · Bet365	23% fair 4.35 best 4.00 · Betfair Sportsbook

Goals by team

Sarmiento Junin goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	61% fair 1.65 best 1.57 · Betano	39% fair 2.53 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	61% fair 1.65 best 1.57 · Betano	39% fair 2.53 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	21% fair 4.76 best 3.75 · Bet365	79% fair 1.27 best 1.26 · 1xBet

Rosario Central goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	42% fair 2.39 best 2.25 · Betfair Sportsbook	58% fair 1.72 best 1.67 · Bet365

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	79% fair 1.27 best 1.26 · Betano	21% fair 4.66 best 4.00 · Bet365
1.5	42% fair 2.39 best 2.25 · Betfair Sportsbook	58% fair 1.72 best 1.67 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
19% fair 5.15 best 4.75 · Betano	45% fair 2.23 best 2.10 · William Hill	36% fair 2.80 best 2.67 · Betano

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	66% fair 1.51 best 1.55 · Betano	34% fair 2.98 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook
1	2.26 fair best 2.25 · Betano	1.80 fair best 1.68 · BetVictor
1.5	27% fair 3.75 best 3.35 · Betano	73% fair 1.36 best 1.35 · William Hill

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	66% fair 1.51 best 1.55 · Betano	34% fair 2.98 best 2.75 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.73 fair best 1.66 · 1xBet	2.38 fair best 2.21 · SBO
1	2.26 fair best 2.25 · Betano	1.80 fair best 1.68 · BetVictor
1.25	2.98 fair best 2.64 · 1xBet	1.50 fair best 1.45 · BetVictor
1.5	27% fair 3.75 best 3.35 · Betano	73% fair 1.36 best 1.35 · William Hill

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–113.4%fair 7.47
0–112.4%fair 8.04
0–010.1%fair 9.89
0–29.7%fair 10.30
1–29.1%fair 11.03
1–07.7%fair 13.06

Total goals

010%
120%
227%
321%
4+22%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Sarmiento Junin at home, Rosario Central away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Sarmiento Junin	Rosario Central
Goals scored per game	1.40 (1.50)	1.70 (1.00)
Goals conceded per game	1.30 (0.90)	0.90 (1.00)
Over 2.5 goals	30% (30%)	40% (30%)
Both teams scored	60% (60%)	50% (40%)
Clean sheets	30% (40%)	40% (30%)
Failed to score	10% (0%)	10% (30%)
xG for / against per game	1.25 / 1.40	1.59 / 0.83
Corners for / against per game	3.60 / 6.10	7.00 / 4.50
Cards per game	2.60	2.30

Over 2.5 goals: Sarmiento Junin in 30% and Rosario Central in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 43% for this match.

From 10 matches for Sarmiento Junin and 10 for Rosario Central. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected · Sun, 25 Oct · 03:00 UTC

2 Rosario Central · soft 2.14 (Unibet (SE)) · fair 2.01 · edge +6.5%

Opening sharp

1.94

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Sarmiento Junin averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Rosario Central averaged 2.4 and 0.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Rosario Central has won its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Rosario Central here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Sarmiento Junin

L D D W L

avg 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Rosario Central

W W W D W

avg 2.4 scored · 0.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

19 Apr 2026 Rosario Central 2–1 Sarmiento Junin

24 Oct 2025 Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Rosario Central

23 Feb 2025 Rosario Central 1–0 Sarmiento Junin

20 Jul 2024 Rosario Central 4–2 Sarmiento Junin

03 Mar 2023 Sarmiento Junin 4–1 Rosario Central

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Fri, 23 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick X/2 · Draw or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.23

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Rosario Central

Odds when flagged 2.14

Fair odds 2.01

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint aae3a0deddc2c68a

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit