Argentina

Argentina Liga Profesional predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Argentina Liga Profesional fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated at 22:24 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Tue · 00:15 UTC	Atletico TucumanArgentinos JRS	32% 3.05 fair 3.10	31% 3.10 fair 3.18	36% 2.65 fair 2.75	Value expired
Tue · 00:15 UTC	Independ. RivadaviaBanfield	62% 1.59 fair 1.62	23% 4.19 fair 4.43	16% 6.10 fair 6.40	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
01 Nov	Lanus – Gimnasia M.	1–1	22%
01 Nov	Newells Old Boys – Union Santa Fe	1–1	30%
01 Nov	Belgrano Cordoba – Barracas Central	2–2	29%
01 Nov	Boca Juniors – River Plate	1–0	43%
01 Nov	Estudiantes L.P. – Instituto Cordoba	3–3	30%
31 Oct	Velez Sarsfield – San Lorenzo	2–2	28%
31 Oct	Deportivo Riestra – Talleres Cordoba	0–3	32%
31 Oct	Sarmiento Junin – Rosario Central	1–2	52%
31 Oct	Racing Club – Aldosivi	2–1	56%
30 Oct	Huracan – Tigre	0–2	26%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Argentina Liga Profesional

Across the matches we priced in Argentina Liga Profesional, the market's average 1X2 margin is 7.92%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 3.42%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Apertura - Group A
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	19	7	+12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	22	9	+13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	18	12	+6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	17	13	+4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	24	20	+4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	18	15	+3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	14	14	+0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	24	20	+4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	17	17	+0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	18	21	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	14	22	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	10	15	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	11	21	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	15	27	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	5	12	-7	11
Apertura - Group B
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	29	15	+14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	22	12	+10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	17	13	+4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	20	16	+4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	17	13	+4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	19	19	+0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	17	13	+4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	17	15	+2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	15	15	+0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	18	15	+3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	13	20	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	17	19	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	15	20	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	6	19	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	5	24	-19	5
Clausura - Group A
1	Instituto Cordoba	15	10	3	2	24	13	+11	33
2	Boca Juniors	15	8	6	1	23	14	+9	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	15	7	7	1	25	15	+10	28
4	Defensa Y Justicia	14	8	3	3	20	13	+7	27
5	Lanus	15	7	4	4	18	11	+7	25
6	Newells Old Boys	15	5	7	3	14	11	+3	22
7	Gimnasia M.	15	6	3	6	17	16	+1	21
8	Independiente	14	5	4	5	12	14	-2	19
9	San Lorenzo	15	5	4	6	9	14	-5	19
10	Union Santa Fe	15	5	3	7	22	24	-2	18
11	Estudiantes L.P.	15	4	3	8	20	21	-1	15
12	Platense	14	3	5	6	14	20	-6	14
13	Talleres Cordoba	15	3	3	9	16	22	-6	12
14	Deportivo Riestra	15	2	6	7	10	17	-7	12
15	Central Cordoba de Santiago	14	2	4	8	11	23	-12	10
Clausura - Group B
1	Rosario Central	15	9	4	2	24	12	+12	31
2	Argentinos JRS	14	8	4	2	18	11	+7	28
3	Gimnasia L.P.	15	8	4	3	23	19	+4	28
4	River Plate	15	7	2	6	19	14	+5	23
5	Belgrano Cordoba	15	6	5	4	16	13	+3	23
6	Barracas Central	15	6	5	4	15	13	+2	23
7	Sarmiento Junin	15	6	3	6	23	23	+0	21
8	Huracan	15	5	4	6	12	16	-4	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	14	5	4	5	17	22	-5	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	14	4	5	5	13	13	+0	17
11	Tigre	15	4	4	7	15	16	-1	16
12	Racing Club	15	4	3	8	16	22	-6	15
13	Banfield	14	3	5	6	15	20	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	15	3	2	10	16	24	-8	11
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	15	2	3	10	10	21	-11	9

Team stats this season

476 matches this season: 2.16 goals per game, 38% over 2.5, 48% both teams scored. xG 2.37 per match (from 211 matches); 8.9 corners and 5.1 cards per match (from 469 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Union Santa Fe	33	1.45	1.42	58%	64%	15%	1.19 / 1.02	8.7	2.3
Independ. Rivadavia	31	1.52	1.26	55%	65%	23%	1.45 / 1.16	8.7	2.2
Gimnasia L.P.	33	1.30	1.21	52%	55%	27%	1.47 / 1.11	9.5	2.9
Talleres Cordoba	32	1.03	1.13	50%	47%	31%	1.13 / 1.33	9.6	2.5
Sarmiento Junin	31	1.16	1.39	48%	55%	26%	1.29 / 1.42	9.6	3.1
Rosario Central	34	1.41	0.91	47%	59%	32%	1.43 / 1.04	9.7	2.4
Racing Club	33	1.06	1.15	46%	61%	24%	1.09 / 1.51	8.4	3.4
Defensa Y Justicia	30	1.27	1.13	43%	53%	30%	1.42 / 1.09	9.0	2.0
Banfield	30	1.07	1.30	43%	57%	20%	1.00 / 1.93	8.6	2.5
Atletico Tucuman	30	0.93	1.10	43%	50%	40%	0.70 / 0.99	9.2	2.6
Estudiantes L.P.	32	1.22	0.91	41%	31%	41%	1.42 / 1.34	8.5	2.8
Instituto Cordoba	31	1.32	0.97	39%	45%	36%	1.42 / 0.85	8.9	2.7
Gimnasia M.	31	1.00	1.23	39%	42%	29%	1.20 / 1.52	9.0	2.6
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	31	0.48	1.45	39%	36%	19%	0.86 / 1.30	9.5	2.4
Boca Juniors	32	1.44	0.75	38%	50%	47%	1.56 / 0.96	8.7	2.3
Central Cordoba de Santiago	30	0.73	1.47	37%	37%	27%	1.11 / 1.80	8.5	2.6
Independiente	31	1.19	1.19	36%	55%	29%	0.94 / 1.10	10.0	2.6
Tigre	31	1.06	1.00	36%	52%	29%	1.27 / 1.11	8.7	2.2
Aldosivi	31	0.71	1.39	36%	52%	23%	0.99 / 1.57	9.4	2.7
Lanus	32	1.13	0.88	34%	38%	44%	1.28 / 0.96	9.1	2.4
River Plate	35	1.34	0.86	34%	37%	37%	1.38 / 0.84	8.7	2.3
Belgrano Cordoba	35	1.14	0.83	34%	40%	46%	1.24 / 1.18	8.4	2.3
Platense	30	0.80	1.17	33%	47%	23%	1.25 / 1.25	8.5	2.2
Barracas Central	31	0.97	0.90	32%	48%	32%	1.04 / 0.78	7.1	2.2
Newells Old Boys	31	0.94	1.23	32%	52%	26%	1.04 / 0.84	9.2	2.4
Velez Sarsfield	32	1.34	0.88	31%	53%	38%	1.15 / 1.41	9.2	2.2
Argentinos JRS	33	1.15	0.76	30%	46%	46%	1.24 / 0.95	8.9	2.4
Huracan	33	0.91	0.91	30%	46%	39%	1.00 / 1.53	9.3	3.2
San Lorenzo	32	0.75	0.91	19%	31%	47%	0.82 / 1.13	8.6	2.7
Deportivo Riestra	31	0.48	0.94	13%	26%	32%	0.98 / 0.90	8.1	3.2

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Instituto Cordoba	2.5	43%	0%
2	Defensa Y Justicia	4.6	14.8%	0%
3	Argentinos JRS	5	10.2%	0%
4	Rosario Central	5.1	8.2%	0%
5	Belgrano Cordoba	5.4	8.3%	0%
6	Boca Juniors	6	6.1%	0%
7	Velez Sarsfield	6	8%	0%
8	Gimnasia L.P.	10.4	0.3%	0%
9	Sarmiento Junin	11.3	0.5%	0%
10	Independ. Rivadavia	11.6	0%	0%
11	Huracan	11.8	0.1%	0%
12	Lanus	12	0.1%	0%
13	Barracas Central	12.3	0.1%	0%
14	Gimnasia M.	12.7	0.1%	0%
15	Newells Old Boys	13.5	0.1%	0%
16	River Plate	13.9	0.1%	0%
17	Independiente	14.7	0%	0%
18	Estudiantes L.P.	17.9	0%	0.3%
19	San Lorenzo	20	0%	0.5%
20	Atletico Tucuman	20.4	0%	0.4%
21	Banfield	21.2	0%	1.6%
22	Union Santa Fe	22.1	0%	3.9%
23	Tigre	23.1	0%	7%
24	Racing Club	23.4	0%	9.1%
25	Platense	23.8	0%	11.8%
26	Deportivo Riestra	24	0%	13.6%
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	25.5	0%	27.6%
28	Talleres Cordoba	27.6	0%	63.9%
29	Aldosivi	27.9	0%	69.9%
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	29.2	0%	90.6%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Argentina Liga Profesional predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Argentina Liga Profesional is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Argentina Liga Profesional fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Argentina Liga Profesional betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Argentina Liga Profesional match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

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