A-League Sat, 31 Oct 2026 · 04:00 UTC

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix

Fair price as of 16:34 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 03:35 UTC
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Most likely: Newcastle Jets 49%
Over 2.5 goals: 63%
Most likely score 1–1 (10.8%, estimate)

The sharp market makes Newcastle Jets the most likely outcome at 49% — fair odds of 2.05. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Newcastle Jets: LDDLL; Wellington Phoenix: WWLWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 25 Oct: 1 · Newcastle Jets at +3.6%

Value check

No value

Edge at detection +3.6% @ 2.03 · 25 Oct

Edge right now No value at the current price 2 hours ago

We flagged +3.6% on 1 on 25 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Newcastle Jets anyway? The best price we see is 2.03 at GTbets, -0.9% against the fair odds of 2.05. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 76%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	49%	24%	27%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	51%	24%	25%
Our model	56%	24%	20%

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.31

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.88 / 3.89 / 3.63

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 2 hours ago

Fair odds of the pick now 1.31

Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.03 / 3.97 / 3.50

Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 30 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	2.05	4.18	3.67
Pinnacle sharp	1.98	3.90	3.45
888sport	1.95	3.60	3.30
BetOnline.ag	1.95	3.97 ★	3.50 ★
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only	2.00	3.90	3.30
Betfred (UK) UK-only	1.95	3.75	3.20
Betsson	1.98	3.60	3.35
Coolbet	1.98	3.87	3.50 ★
GTbets	2.03 ★	3.85	3.45

Show all 30 bookmakers

Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	2.06	3.90	3.35
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	2.06	3.90	3.35
Smarkets exchange	2.04	3.85	3.30
Casumo UK-only	1.93	3.75	3.35
Codere (IT)	1.98	3.85	3.30
Coral UK-only	2.00	3.80	3.30
Grosvenor UK-only	1.93	3.75	3.35
Ladbrokes UK-only	2.00	3.75	3.30
LeoVegas (SE)	1.93	3.70	3.35
LiveScore Bet UK-only	1.91	3.65	3.30
Marathonbet	1.91	3.86	3.42
Nordic Bet	1.98	3.60	3.35
PMU (FR)	1.85	3.55	3.20
Paddy Power UK-only	1.95	3.80	3.25
Unibet (FR)	1.77	3.65	3.10
Unibet (NL)	1.93	3.75	3.35
Unibet (SE)	1.93	3.75	3.35
Unibet (UK) UK-only	1.95	3.80	3.25
Virgin Bet UK-only	1.91	3.65	3.30
William Hill	1.95	3.60	3.30
Winamax (DE)	1.90	3.80	3.10
Winamax (FR)	1.86	3.70	3.00

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of 02:30 UTC. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	84% fair 1.18 best 1.18 · Betano	16% fair 6.45 best 5.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	63% fair 1.59 best 1.55 · Betano	37% fair 2.68 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.5	40% fair 2.49 best 2.35 · Betano	60% fair 1.67 best 1.64 · 1xBet

All lines (7)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	84% fair 1.18 best 1.18 · Betano	16% fair 6.45 best 5.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	63% fair 1.59 best 1.55 · Betano	37% fair 2.68 best 2.55 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.75	1.73 fair best 1.65 · 1xBet	2.37 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet
3	1.93 fair best 1.88 · SBO	2.08 fair best 1.98 · Betano
3.25	2.22 fair best 2.10 · 1xBet	1.82 fair best 1.78 · 1xBet
3.5	40% fair 2.49 best 2.35 · Betano	60% fair 1.67 best 1.64 · 1xBet
4.5	21% fair 4.69 best 4.10 · BetVictor	79% fair 1.27 best 1.26 · Betano

Double chance

1X	12	X2
73% fair 1.37 best 1.35 · Betano	76% fair 1.31 best 1.26 · 1xBet	51% fair 1.95 best 1.86 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Newcastle Jets	Wellington Phoenix
−1	2.94 fair best 2.82 · Betano	1.52 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet
−0.75	2.36 fair best 2.25 · Bet365	1.74 fair best 1.68 · 1xBet
−0.5	49% fair 2.05 best 2.02 · Betano	51% fair 1.95 best 1.86 · SBO
−0.25	1.79 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet	2.27 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet
0	1.53 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet	2.87 fair best 2.66 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Newcastle Jets	Wellington Phoenix
−1.5	26% fair 3.82 best 3.45 · Bet365	74% fair 1.35 best 1.32 · 1xBet
−1.25	3.39 fair best 3.05 · BetVictor	1.42 fair best 1.38 · Bet365
−1	2.94 fair best 2.82 · Betano	1.52 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet
−0.75	2.36 fair best 2.25 · Bet365	1.74 fair best 1.68 · 1xBet
−0.5	49% fair 2.05 best 2.02 · Betano	51% fair 1.95 best 1.86 · SBO
−0.25	1.79 fair best 1.74 · 1xBet	2.27 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet
0	1.53 fair best 1.51 · 1xBet	2.87 fair best 2.66 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.42 fair best 1.40 · Bet365	3.39 fair best 2.95 · 1xBet
+0.5	74% fair 1.34 best 1.32 · Bet365	26% fair 3.91 best 3.30 · Bet365

Goals by team

Newcastle Jets goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	56% fair 1.78 best 1.72 · Betano	44% fair 2.27 best 2.20 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	56% fair 1.78 best 1.72 · Betano	44% fair 2.27 best 2.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	27% fair 3.67 best 3.25 · Bet365	73% fair 1.37 best 1.36 · Betfair Sportsbook

Wellington Phoenix goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	38% fair 2.61 best 2.38 · Betfair Sportsbook	62% fair 1.62 best 1.62 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	76% fair 1.31 best 1.30 · Betfair Sportsbook	24% fair 4.23 best 3.60 · BetVictor
1.5	38% fair 2.61 best 2.38 · Betfair Sportsbook	62% fair 1.62 best 1.62 · Betfair Sportsbook

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
39% fair 2.58 best 2.52 · Betano	38% fair 2.67 best 2.50 · Bet365	24% fair 4.22 best 3.80 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.99 fair best 1.91 · SBO	2.01 fair best 1.93 · SBO
1.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.32 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.64 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.37 fair best 1.35 · BetVictor	3.67 fair best 3.08 · 1xBet
1	1.55 fair best 1.57 · Betano	2.82 fair best 2.51 · 1xBet
1.25	1.99 fair best 1.91 · SBO	2.01 fair best 1.93 · SBO
1.5	41% fair 2.45 best 2.32 · Betano	59% fair 1.69 best 1.64 · 1xBet
1.75	3.11 fair best 2.57 · 1xBet	1.47 fair best 1.43 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–110.8%fair 9.29
2–19.4%fair 10.63
2–06.9%fair 14.47
1–26.8%fair 14.63
1–06.7%fair 15.00
2–26.4%fair 15.63

Total goals

05%
111%
221%
322%
4+40%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Newcastle Jets at home, Wellington Phoenix away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Newcastle Jets	Wellington Phoenix
Goals scored per game	1.60 (2.00)	1.20 (1.30)
Goals conceded per game	2.10 (1.10)	1.10 (1.90)
Over 2.5 goals	60% (60%)	40% (60%)
Both teams scored	90% (80%)	40% (50%)
Clean sheets	10% (20%)	30% (30%)
Failed to score	0% (0%)	30% (20%)
xG for / against per game	1.48 / 1.69	1.34 / 1.49
Corners for / against per game	5.60 / 5.20	6.70 / 5.50
Cards per game	1.80	1.30

Over 2.5 goals: Newcastle Jets in 60% and Wellington Phoenix in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 63% for this match.

From 10 matches for Newcastle Jets and 10 for Wellington Phoenix. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected · Sun, 25 Oct · 02:30 UTC

1 Newcastle Jets · soft 2.03 (GTbets) · fair 1.96 · edge +3.6%

Opening sharp

1.88

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Newcastle Jets averaged 1.4 goals scored and 3.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Wellington Phoenix averaged 1.2 and 1.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Newcastle Jets is winless in its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Newcastle Jets here.

Wellington Phoenix has won its last 2 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Wellington Phoenix here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Newcastle Jets

L D D L L

avg 1.4 scored · 3.6 conceded (last 5)

Wellington Phoenix

W W L W L

avg 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head

23 Jan 2026 Newcastle Jets 4–1 Wellington Phoenix

14 Dec 2025 Wellington Phoenix 1–3 Newcastle Jets

06 Apr 2025 Newcastle Jets 1–2 Wellington Phoenix

28 Dec 2024 Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Newcastle Jets

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Fri, 23 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.24

Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Newcastle Jets

Odds when flagged 2.03

Fair odds 1.96

Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint a2c1cd99b9509408

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit