Australia

A-League predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every A-League fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 16:34 UTC and 16:35 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Fri · 09:00 UTC	Brisbane RoarAuckland	33% 3.05 fair 3.03	28% 3.53 fair 3.64	39% 2.45 fair 2.53	Not re-checked
Sat · 04:00 UTC	Newcastle JetsWellington Phoenix	49% 2.03 fair 2.05	24% 3.97 fair 4.18	27% 3.50 fair 3.67	Value expired
Sat · 06:00 UTC	Melbourne CitySydney	47% 2.12 fair 2.12	26% 3.60 fair 3.86	27% 3.55 fair 3.71	No value
Sat · 08:40 UTC	MacarthurWestern Sydney Wanderers	37% 2.58 fair 2.70	25% 3.75 fair 3.99	38% 2.60 fair 2.64	Value expired
Sun · 04:00 UTC	Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners	68% 1.47 fair 1.46	18% 5.15 fair 5.66	14% 6.50 fair 7.11	Value expired
Sun · 08:00 UTC	Perth GloryAdelaide United	32% 2.96 fair 3.12	26% 3.60 fair 3.80	42% 2.46 fair 2.40	Not re-checked

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
25 Oct	Sydney – Adelaide United	2–1	42%
25 Oct	Wellington Phoenix – Central Coast Mariners	2–0	62%
24 Oct	Melbourne Victory – Melbourne City	1–1	26%
24 Oct	Western Sydney Wanderers – Auckland	5–2	41%
24 Oct	Newcastle Jets – Macarthur	1–1	25%
23 Oct	Brisbane Roar – Perth Glory	2–1	41%
18 Oct	Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne Victory	2–1	26%
17 Oct	Central Coast Mariners – Newcastle Jets	2–2	22%
17 Oct	Macarthur – Perth Glory	2–1	49%
17 Oct	Auckland – Melbourne City	3–1	40%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on A-League

Across the matches we priced in A-League, the market's average 1X2 margin is 8.06%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Betfair Sportsbook at 7.26%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Betfair Sportsbook → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Wellington Phoenix	2	2	0	0	4	1	+3	6
2	Western Sydney Wanderers	2	1	1	0	5	2	+3	4
3	Macarthur	2	1	1	0	3	2	+1	4
4	Sydney	2	1	1	0	2	1	+1	4
5	Brisbane Roar	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
6	Auckland	2	1	0	1	5	6	-1	3
7	Newcastle Jets	2	0	2	0	3	3	+0	2
8	Melbourne Victory	2	0	1	1	2	3	-1	1
9	Central Coast Mariners	2	0	1	1	2	4	-2	1
10	Melbourne City	2	0	1	1	2	4	-2	1
11	Adelaide United	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
12	Perth Glory	2	0	0	2	2	4	-2	0

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Auckland	3.4	30%	1.2%
2	Melbourne City	5.1	11.9%	5.4%
3	Newcastle Jets	5.1	12%	5.5%
4	Sydney	5.4	11.2%	6.3%
5	Adelaide United	5.8	8.6%	8.4%
6	Macarthur	5.9	8.1%	9.5%
7	Wellington Phoenix	6.3	6.1%	9.3%
8	Melbourne Victory	6.4	5.8%	12.2%
9	Western Sydney Wanderers	7.5	3.2%	19.9%
10	Central Coast Mariners	8.5	1.4%	32.1%
11	Brisbane Roar	8.6	1.4%	33%
12	Perth Glory	10	0.3%	57%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best A-League predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for A-League is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every A-League fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer A-League betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each A-League match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit