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Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes Western Sydney Wanderers the most likely outcome at 38% — fair odds of 2.64. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Macarthur: DWWLL; Western Sydney Wanderers: WDLLL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check · No value at the current price · Flag recorded 24 Oct: 2 · Western Sydney Wanderers at +4.9%

Value check

No value
Edge at detection +4.9% @ 2.90 ·
Edge right now No value at the current price

We flagged +4.9% on 2 on 24 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

Betting on Western Sydney Wanderers anyway? The best price we see is 2.60 at Coolbet, -1.5% against the fair odds of 2.64. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 75%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now37%25%38%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded42%25%33%
Our model49%26%25%
Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.33
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.28 / 3.71 / 2.83

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick now 1.33
Best price under our value rule now (1 / X / 2) 2.58 / 3.75 / 2.60
Pick result (single or double chance) Pending

Prices across 27 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 2.703.992.64
Pinnacle sharp 2.58 3.75 2.53
888sport 2.50 3.50 2.50
BetOnline.ag 2.58 3.75 ★ 2.53
Betfair Sportsbook UK-only 2.55 3.75 ★ 2.50
Betfred (UK) UK-only 2.50 3.60 2.40
Coolbet 2.50 3.75 ★ 2.60 ★
Coral UK-only 2.60 ★ 3.70 2.50
Ladbrokes UK-only 2.60 ★ 3.60 2.50
Show all 27 bookmakers
Betsson 2.55 3.45 2.45
Casumo UK-only 2.43 3.55 2.55
Codere (IT) 2.48 3.60 2.55
GTbets 2.50 3.72 2.56
Grosvenor UK-only 2.43 3.55 2.55
LeoVegas (SE) 2.40 3.55 2.55
LiveScore Bet UK-only 2.38 3.50 2.55
Marathonbet 2.49 3.65 2.50
Nordic Bet 2.55 3.45 2.45
PMU (FR) 2.32 3.40 2.48
Paddy Power UK-only 2.50 3.70 2.45
Unibet (FR) 2.15 3.45 2.45
Unibet (NL) 2.43 3.55 2.55
Unibet (SE) 2.43 3.55 2.55
Unibet (UK) UK-only 2.45 3.60 2.55
Virgin Bet UK-only 2.38 3.50 2.55
William Hill 2.50 3.50 2.50
Winamax (DE) 2.35 3.55 2.40
Winamax (FR) 2.30 3.50 2.40

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. UK-only bookmakers are shown but not yet used for value flags. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices as of . We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 83% fair 1.20 best 1.20 · Betano 17% fair 5.92 best 5.00 · Bet365
2.5 61% fair 1.65 best 1.62 · 1xBet 39% fair 2.54 best 2.38 · 1xBet
3.5 38% fair 2.62 best 2.47 · Betano 62% fair 1.62 best 1.57 · Betano
All lines (7)
Line OverUnder
1.5 83% fair 1.20 best 1.20 · Betano 17% fair 5.92 best 5.00 · Bet365
2.5 61% fair 1.65 best 1.62 · 1xBet 39% fair 2.54 best 2.38 · 1xBet
2.75 1.79 fair best 1.76 · 1xBet 2.26 fair best 2.14 · 1xBet
3 2.03 fair best 1.96 · SBO 1.97 fair best 1.88 · Betano
3.25 2.32 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet 1.76 fair best 1.67 · 1xBet
3.5 38% fair 2.62 best 2.47 · Betano 62% fair 1.62 best 1.57 · Betano
4.5 20% fair 4.88 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook 80% fair 1.26 best 1.23 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
62% fair 1.61 best 1.52 · 1xBet 75% fair 1.33 best 1.29 · 1xBet 63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line MacarthurWestern Sydney Wanderers
−0.5 36% fair 2.76 best 2.52 · Betano 64% fair 1.57 best 1.55 · Betano
−0.25 2.39 fair best 2.25 · Bet365 1.72 fair best 1.70 · 1xBet
0 2.02 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet 1.98 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.75 fair best 1.68 · Bet365 2.33 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet
+0.5 63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · Betano 37% fair 2.70 best 2.57 · Betano
All lines (10)
Line MacarthurWestern Sydney Wanderers
−1.25 4.45 fair best 4.40 · Bet365 1.29 fair best 1.20 · Bet365
−1 4.74 fair best 4.00 · Bet365 1.27 fair best 1.35 · Betano
−0.75 3.39 fair best 3.00 · Bet365 1.42 fair best 1.40 · 1xBet
−0.5 36% fair 2.76 best 2.52 · Betano 64% fair 1.57 best 1.55 · Betano
−0.25 2.39 fair best 2.25 · Bet365 1.72 fair best 1.70 · 1xBet
0 2.02 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet 1.98 fair best 1.93 · 1xBet
+0.25 1.75 fair best 1.68 · Bet365 2.33 fair best 2.18 · 1xBet
+0.5 63% fair 1.59 best 1.53 · Betano 37% fair 2.70 best 2.57 · Betano
+0.75 1.43 fair best 1.40 · Bet365 3.32 fair best 2.91 · BetVictor
+1 1.28 fair best 1.25 · 1xBet 4.59 fair best 4.00 · BetVictor

Goals by team

Macarthur goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 46% fair 2.19 best 2.00 · Bet365 54% fair 1.84 best 1.80 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (3)
Line OverUnder
0.5 81% fair 1.23 best 1.22 · Betano 19% fair 5.31 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5 46% fair 2.19 best 2.00 · Bet365 54% fair 1.84 best 1.80 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 19% fair 5.33 best 4.33 · Bet365 81% fair 1.23 best 1.22 · Betano

Western Sydney Wanderers goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 46% fair 2.16 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook 54% fair 1.86 best 1.75 · Betano
All lines (3)
Line OverUnder
0.5 81% fair 1.24 best 1.22 · Marathonbet 19% fair 5.16 best 4.33 · Bet365
1.5 46% fair 2.16 best 2.10 · Betfair Sportsbook 54% fair 1.86 best 1.75 · Betano
2.5 19% fair 5.14 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook 81% fair 1.24 best 1.21 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1X2
30% fair 3.29 best 3.10 · Bet365 39% fair 2.59 best 2.40 · William Hill 31% fair 3.23 best 3.10 · Betano

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.25 2.05 fair best 1.98 · SBO 1.95 fair best 1.86 · SBO
1.5 39% fair 2.53 best 2.40 · Betano 61% fair 1.65 best 1.57 · William Hill
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
0.75 1.40 fair best 1.38 · BetVictor 3.52 fair best 2.82 · 1xBet
1 1.59 fair best 1.62 · Betano 2.71 fair best 2.30 · 1xBet
1.25 2.05 fair best 1.98 · SBO 1.95 fair best 1.86 · SBO
1.5 39% fair 2.53 best 2.40 · Betano 61% fair 1.65 best 1.57 · William Hill
1.75 3.26 fair best 2.78 · 1xBet 1.44 fair best 1.40 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–111.4%fair 8.80
  2. 1–28.4%fair 11.87
  3. 2–18.3%fair 12.01
  4. 2–26.6%fair 15.22
  5. 0–16.2%fair 16.25
  6. 1–06.1%fair 16.46

Total goals

  • 05%
  • 112%
  • 222%
  • 322%
  • 4+38%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Macarthur at home, Western Sydney Wanderers away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesMacarthurWestern Sydney Wanderers
Goals scored per game 1.60 (2.10) 1.50 (1.40)
Goals conceded per game 2.20 (2.00) 1.90 (1.90)
Over 2.5 goals 90% (90%) 70% (80%)
Both teams scored 80% (70%) 50% (60%)
Clean sheets 10% (10%) 20% (30%)
Failed to score 10% (20%) 40% (20%)
xG for / against per game 1.25 / 1.49 1.52 / 1.97
Corners for / against per game 5.00 / 5.20 4.80 / 5.30
Cards per game 2.40 1.70

Over 2.5 goals: Macarthur in 90% and Western Sydney Wanderers in 70% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 61% for this match.

From 10 matches for Macarthur and 10 for Western Sydney Wanderers. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value expired

Detected ·
2 Western Sydney Wanderers · soft 2.90 (Codere (IT)) · fair 2.76 · edge +4.9%
Opening sharp
2.83

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Macarthur averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Western Sydney Wanderers averaged 1.2 and 1.6 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Macarthur
D W W L L
avg 1.8 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)
Western Sydney Wanderers
W D L L L
avg 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
28 Feb 2026 Macarthur 0–4 Western Sydney Wanderers
01 Jan 2026 Western Sydney Wanderers 0–1 Macarthur
01 Nov 2025 Macarthur 1–1 Western Sydney Wanderers
03 May 2025 Macarthur 1–3 Western Sydney Wanderers
16 Feb 2025 Western Sydney Wanderers 2–1 Macarthur

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Western Sydney Wanderers
Odds when flagged 2.90
Fair odds 2.76
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) pending
Value CLV —
Profit (units) —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 81b1e7a709a0c70d

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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