FK Jablonec 0–5 Slavia Praha
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Slavia Praha was the most likely outcome at 55% (fair odds 1.82). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — FK Jablonec: WDLLW; Slavia Praha: DDDLW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 15' David Moses · yellow card · Slavia Praha
- 41' 0–1 Mubarak Suleiman · goal · assist Michal Sadílek · Slavia Praha
- 57' 0–2 Emmanuel Ayaosi · goal · assist Michal Sadílek · Slavia Praha
- 66' 0–3 Ange N'Guessan · goal · assist Oskar Kubiak · Slavia Praha
- 73' Saidou Alioum Moubarak · yellow card · FK Jablonec
- 75' 0–4 Mubarak Suleiman · goal · assist Emmanuel Ayaosi · Slavia Praha
- 80' 0–5 Danijel Sturm · goal · assist Mubarak Suleiman · Slavia Praha
Match stats
| Match stats | FK Jablonec | Slavia Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 44 | 56 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.58 | 2.19 |
| Shots | 11 | 16 |
| Shots on target | 1 | 9 |
| Corners | 1 | 8 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 16 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 4 | 1 |
What the market said before kick-off
- FK Jablonec win 21% did not happen
- Draw 23% did not happen
- Slavia Praha win 57% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 56% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
FK Jablonec
- 1 J. Hanuš GK
- 20 J. Sláma DF
- 13 R. Sedláček MF
- 9 A. Růsek FW
- 21 M. Polidar MF
- 15 D. Pavlović DF
- 6 N. Okeke MF
- 57 F. Novák DF
- 36 G. Kuol FW
- 7 V. Tchanturishvili MF
- 18 M. Cedidla DF
Bench: H. Ahl, F. Zorvan, S. Alioum, J. Chramosta, D. Hollý, L. Jawo, K. Mihelak, S. Nebyla, E. Sobol, D. Souček, F. Vecheta
Coach: L. Kozel
Regular starters not in the XI
- N. Tekijaski — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Slavia Praha
- 4 D. Zima DF
- 29 N. Domchak GK
- 20 E. Ayaosi MF
- 3 T. Holeš DF
- 8 oskar ubiak DF
- 16 D. Moses MF
- 6 A. N'Guessan DF
- 30 W. Nowak MF
- 23 M. Sadílek MF
- 15 M. E. Suleiman MF
- 27 T. Vlček DF
Bench: D. Šturm, Adam Rezek, M. Konečný, O. Kolář, Pavel Kacor, D. Jurásek, T. Diakité, M. Chytil, Š. Chaloupek
Coach: J. Trpišovský
Regular starters not in the XI
- L. Provod — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- J. Markovic — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 21 / 23 / 57% when the line-ups came out, 21 / 23 / 57% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 22% | 23% | 55% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
FK Jablonec averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Slavia Praha averaged 0.8 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- 100% sure football predictions? How often favourites really win
- Accumulator tips today, with the real chance it wins
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is WinDrawWin accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included
